# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Risk Assets

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Risk Assets", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Macro Research Report on the Crypto Market: Under the Warsh Effect, a Tightening Cycle Approaches—How Will Crypto Assets Be Priced?

The crypto market faces a paradigm shift following the nomination of Kevin Warsh—a known monetary policy hawk—as the next Fed Chair. Termed the "Warsh Effect," this event triggered sharp declines across major cryptocurrencies and massive outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, signaling a structural repricing of crypto assets. The core shift moves from a narrative where crypto served as an inflation hedge to one where it is increasingly treated as a high-beta risk asset, highly sensitive to interest rates and liquidity conditions. Under a tightening regime led by Warsh, crypto valuations will be driven by three key factors: liquidity conditions (40% weight), real interest rates (35%), and risk appetite (25%). Historical analysis shows that during past tightening cycles, crypto exhibited delayed but severe corrections, increased correlation with tech equities, and internal divergence—where assets with real cash flows and utility outperform speculative tokens. In this new paradigm, Bitcoin is now more influenced by macro liquidity and institutional flows than its original "sovereign-free store of value" narrative. Investors must adjust frameworks: treat crypto as high-risk growth assets, implement dynamic hedging strategies, and focus on tokens with sustainable fundamentals. The era of easy liquidity is over—value will be dictated by real-world utility and macroeconomic discipline.

marsbit02/05 07:49

Macro Research Report on the Crypto Market: Under the Warsh Effect, a Tightening Cycle Approaches—How Will Crypto Assets Be Priced?

marsbit02/05 07:49

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Support?

Bitcoin has entered a bearish phase, trading below its 21-week moving average, amid policy uncertainty from the U.S. midterm elections and its typical four-year cycle pressures. While structural weakness persists, a weakening U.S. dollar and ongoing reflation narrative could provide medium-term support for risk assets, including Bitcoin. The October 10 flash crash exacerbated market fragility, widening arbitrage gaps and reducing liquidity. Notably, realized losses were largely absorbed by speculative retail investors—particularly on platforms like Hyperliquid—rather than institutional players. Macro conditions show tolerance for a weaker dollar, which historically benefits Bitcoin. However, risk appetite is cooling: stablecoin growth has slowed, retail interest remains low, and quantum computing concerns continue to dampen Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative. Although the dollar’s 14-year bullish trend has broken—a positive long-term signal—Bitcoin’s price action remains weak, with rallies being met with selling. A more bullish outlook requires clearer technical and capital flow confirmations.

Matrixport02/03 07:27

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Support?

Matrixport02/03 07:27

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Will a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Support?

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin has entered a bear market territory, trading below its 21-week moving average, a key technical signal. While structural weakness persists, a weakening US dollar could become a potential support factor. The recent sell-off, particularly the flash crash on October 10, 2025, was largely driven by speculative retail traders rather than institutional players. Macro narratives around reflation remain, and a softer dollar historically supports Bitcoin. However, risk appetite is cooling, as stablecoin supply growth has slowed and retail interest remains subdued. Although the long-term dollar downtrend may eventually benefit Bitcoin, the current price structure remains weak, with rallies being met with selling pressure. A more constructive view is emerging, but a definitive bullish stance requires further confirmation from technical and capital flow indicators.

Matrixport02/03 07:21

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Will a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Support?

Matrixport02/03 07:21

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Support?

After a recent correction, Bitcoin's price structure has weakened further, trading below the 21-week moving average—a technical signal of a bear market. Historically, Bitcoin tends to face downward pressure during U.S. mid-term election years and within its typical four-year cycle. However, with a weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing reflation narrative, risk assets may still find support. The October 10 flash crash marked a turning point, widening cross-asset pricing gaps and reducing short-term liquidity. Realized losses were largely concentrated among speculative retail investors, particularly on platforms like Hyperliquid, rather than institutional players. Macro conditions show dollar weakness, which has historically supported Bitcoin, and Trump's tolerance for a weaker dollar may sustain reflation trades. Yet, risk appetite is cooling: stablecoin supply growth has slowed, and retail interest remains low. Quantum computing concerns continue to weigh on Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative. While the dollar's 14-year uptrend has broken—a potential long-term support for Bitcoin—the current price structure remains weak, with rebounds often sold. The outlook is cautiously constructive but awaits stronger technical and capital flow signals before turning bullish.

marsbit02/01 11:18

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Support?

marsbit02/01 11:18

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, crypto markets react to potential policy shift

President Trump has nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, effective upon Powell's term expiration in May 2026, pending Senate confirmation. Warsh, who served from 2006 to 2011, is known for his views on monetary policy and financial stability. Markets reacted immediately, with Bitcoin falling around 2% to near $81,000–$82,000, gold dropping roughly 5%, and equities declining amid expectations of a more hawkish stance. Analysts suggest a Warsh-led Fed may resist rapid rate cuts or balance sheet expansion, potentially leading to tighter liquidity and higher risk premiums for crypto and other risk assets. The confirmation process and ongoing policy uncertainty are likely to continue influencing market sentiment.

ambcrypto01/30 17:17

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, crypto markets react to potential policy shift

ambcrypto01/30 17:17

Tech Giants' Earnings Report "Face Change", Why Did Bitcoin Fall Deeper Than the Nasdaq?

Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, dropping around 7-8% to near $82,000, its lowest point since last November. The downturn was triggered by a sell-off in tech stocks, particularly after Microsoft’s earnings report raised concerns over AI investment returns despite revenue growth. This sparked a downturn in the Nasdaq and S&P 500, which spilled over into crypto markets. Additional factors included heightened geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, fears of a U.S. government shutdown, and internal market vulnerabilities. Large-scale liquidations exceeded $800 million, exacerbating the sell-off. Moreover, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows, and retail participation dwindled, reducing market support. While most holders remain profitable, the market's structure remains fragile, and further declines may occur if negative macro conditions persist or worsen.

比推01/30 13:48

Tech Giants' Earnings Report "Face Change", Why Did Bitcoin Fall Deeper Than the Nasdaq?

比推01/30 13:48

Why Do Bitcoin and Ethereum Fall But Not Rise?

This article analyzes why Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have underperformed other risk assets like stocks and commodities recently, despite a generally bullish macro environment. The core argument is that the underperformance is not primarily a macro issue, but a result of the crypto market's own structural dynamics and its ongoing deleveraging cycle. Key reasons identified include: - The crypto market is in the late stages of a deleveraging process, which began with a sharp sell-off in October, wiping out highly-leveraged speculative capital (especially from retail traders) and making the market fragile and risk-averse. - A significant amount of retail capital has been diverted to other booming assets like AI-related stocks and precious metals, which are experiencing their own FOMO-driven rallies. - Crypto markets remain structurally isolated from traditional finance (TradFi), with barriers to capital flow between them. - The market is still dominated by retail traders and passive funds (like ETFs), making it susceptible to emotional narratives, market micro-structure manipulation, and high volatility amplified by the use of high leverage (10x-20x) by散户. This creates an environment where concentrated selling in low-liquidity hours can trigger cascading liquidations. - The author draws historical parallels to the deleveraging of China's A-share market in 2015 and compares ETH's current price action to Tesla's in 2024, suggesting both are in a prolonged consolidation phase after a bubble. The article concludes that labeling BTC and ETH purely as "risk assets" is an oversimplification. While they are volatile, they also possess safe-haven qualities. The current sensitivity to negative news and sluggish response to positive developments is a temporary structural phenomenon of the deleveraging cycle, not a failure of their long-term value proposition. Once deleveraging concludes and new capital returns, this dynamic is expected to change.

marsbit01/30 04:44

Why Do Bitcoin and Ethereum Fall But Not Rise?

marsbit01/30 04:44

Analyzing if crypto can hold despite ‘5% chance’ of a Fed rate cut

Markets are pricing only a 5% probability of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with concerns over persistent inflation outweighing recent data showing a drop to 2.7% and a weaker December jobs report. This high-rate environment continues to pressure risk assets like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies by increasing the opportunity cost of non-yielding investments. The Fed maintains a cautious, "wait-and-see" stance, indicating that a significant and sustained drop in inflation, particularly in housing and services, would be necessary to justify a policy shift. Until then, minimal rate changes are expected, keeping uncertainty high for crypto markets.

ambcrypto01/17 07:02

Analyzing if crypto can hold despite ‘5% chance’ of a Fed rate cut

ambcrypto01/17 07:02

Why is crypto up today? XRP rallies as Bitcoin stabilizes

Crypto markets are rising due to improved investor sentiment and a shift towards risk assets. Bitcoin has held key support levels and moved upward, while Ethereum posted steady gains. XRP notably outperformed both. The move is characterized by cautious buying rather than panic-driven volume. This improved mood is partly supported by macroeconomic developments, including increased U.S. control over Venezuela's oil reserves. While not directly linked to crypto, this enhances stability perceptions, reduces inflation concerns, and supports risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Additionally, charts show Venezuela's Bitcoin holdings are nearly double those of the U.S. government, a point of interest for traders. Recent liquidations mostly affected long positions in BTC and ETH. Overall, the market appears constructively cautious as risk appetite returns.

ambcrypto01/05 19:01

Why is crypto up today? XRP rallies as Bitcoin stabilizes

ambcrypto01/05 19:01

Bitcoin Rises to Three-Week High. What's Happening in the Market

Bitcoin surged to a three-week high, briefly exceeding $93,000, driven by geopolitical uncertainty following the reported capture of Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro by US special forces. As of 11:30 Moscow time, BTC was trading around $92,600, with the overall crypto market cap rising to $3.15 trillion. Analysts attribute the rally to several key factors: geopolitical events creating market volatility, the crypto market acting as a primary liquid venue over the weekend when traditional markets were closed, and investors interpreting the news as positive for risk assets. The growth is also fueled by post-holiday investor return, continued accumulation by institutional investors, and a record $471 million inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Positive momentum is further supported by corporate BTC buying for reserves and a lack of selling from miners and large funds.

RBK-crypto01/05 09:03

Bitcoin Rises to Three-Week High. What's Happening in the Market

RBK-crypto01/05 09:03

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