# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Regulation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Regulation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Looking Back at Prediction Markets by the End of 2025: Scale, Players, and the Watershed Moment

By the end of 2025, prediction markets have fundamentally shifted from being event-driven tools reliant on black swan events to platforms sustained by structural trading demand. The total monthly trading volume has grown from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $1 billion by late 2025, indicating a phase of explosive growth and consistent liquidity. The industry has evolved into five distinct segments: 1. **Compliant Markets**: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, exchange-like) and Polymarket (globally liquid, later US-compliant) lead with institutional and high-frequency trading, especially in sports contracts. 2. **Crypto-Native Experiments**: Platforms like Opinion explore high-risk, crypto-policy, and speculative events, driving innovation but facing regulatory uncertainty. 3. **High-Frequency Trading Platforms**: Limitless shortens contract cycles, blurring lines between prediction markets and derivatives trading. 4. **Embedded Markets**: Myriad Markets integrates prediction features into wallets and super-apps, reducing user acquisition costs and making participation more casual. 5. **Native Information Markets**: Platforms like predict.fun and media integrations use incentives and community mechanisms to blend prediction with content and social interaction. Regulation in 2025 has not meant full liberalization but rather the establishment of boundaries—predictive contracts are recognized as financial instruments, yet state-level gambling laws remain a friction point. The core shift for users is understanding that these markets now price uncertainty and reflect consensus, not just binary outcomes. Looking ahead, prediction markets are becoming tools for understanding uncertainty rather than mere betting arenas, with projections suggesting significant future growth. 2025 marks the beginning of this structural transformation.

比推12/29 23:05

Looking Back at Prediction Markets by the End of 2025: Scale, Players, and the Watershed Moment

比推12/29 23:05

Bank of Russia Publishes Rules for Purchasing Digital Financial Assets (DFAs) by 'Qualified' and 'Non-Qualified' Investors

The Bank of Russia has announced new rules, effective from 2026, that will change the classification of digital financial assets (DFAs) available to qualified and non-qualified investors. Non-qualified investors will be allowed to freely purchase the most popular DFAs with payments not dependent on variable indicators, including debt assets. They will also gain access, within a limit of 600,000 rubles, to DFAs whose returns are linked to variables such as inflation, the key rate, or prices of precious metals and stocks. All such DFAs must carry a high credit rating, and some will require capital protection to guarantee the return of the initial investment. DFAs with higher risks will be restricted to qualified investors. Legal entities will be able to acquire digital rights with almost no limitations, except for DFAs tied to securities that are reserved for qualified investors. The announcement follows the central bank's earlier reveal of a concept for regulating the digital asset and cryptocurrency market, which is expected to be finalized by mid-2026. The concept proposes allowing the circulation of DFAs and other digital rights on open blockchain networks. This is intended to let issuers freely attract foreign investment and allow clients to purchase DFAs "on terms no worse than those for purchasing cryptocurrency." Regarding cryptocurrencies, the Bank of Russia's plan states that both qualified and non-qualified investors will be permitted to buy them, but each category will be subject to specific rules and restrictions.

RBK-crypto12/29 15:20

Bank of Russia Publishes Rules for Purchasing Digital Financial Assets (DFAs) by 'Qualified' and 'Non-Qualified' Investors

RBK-crypto12/29 15:20

Thirteen Ministries and Seven Associations Issue Document to Prevent Virtual Currency Risks, Where is the Path for RWA?

On December 5th, seven Chinese industry associations, including the Internet Finance Association and the Banking Association, jointly issued a "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Activities Involving Virtual Currencies." This follows a meeting on November 28th where thirteen government ministries and commissions discussed cracking down on virtual currency speculation. The document signals a tightening regulatory environment, causing concern among entrepreneurs planning Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization projects in mainland China. The core of RWA involves digitizing and tokenizing offline assets using blockchain technology for secondary market trading and financing. However, under China's current regulatory framework, any tokenization activity linked to public trading challenges the red lines established in the September 24, 2021 notice. The recent Risk Warning reinforces these strict prohibitions. The document explicitly states that no RWA activities have been approved by financial regulators in mainland China. Key legal obstacles include: 1. The定性 (qualification) of such activities as illegal fundraising and unauthorized securities offerings. 2. A complete ban on financial institutions and payment platforms providing settlement or promotional services for these businesses. 3. The non-legal status of stablecoins involved in RWA, which touches upon monetary sovereignty. Conducting RWA business in mainland China thus carries significant legal risks, including potential criminal penalties. This stringent stance is seen as a preventative measure to avoid systemic financial risks, akin to the previous P2P lending crisis. While the domestic market is effectively closed, opportunities may exist in offshore markets like Hong Kong and Singapore. The associations' warning also notes that overseas service providers offering services within China is illegal. However, purely offshore operations—where the underlying assets, funding, servers, and compliant entities are all outside mainland China and do not involve RMB outflow—might not be explicitly forbidden. This creates a potential "outlet" for assets to connect with international markets in a compliant manner. Theoretically, a path exists for Chinese companies to use an ODI (Overseas Direct Investment) structure to establish a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) and tokenize assets like factory or mineral rights in Hong Kong. However, in practice, this is extremely challenging due to complex cross-border asset verification rules, strict scrutiny over foreign exchange and capital repatriation (which could be deemed illegal fundraising), and legal risks for individuals within China managing overseas crypto businesses. The current period is one of heightened regulatory scrutiny and unified opposition from multiple ministries. The prevailing advice, even in Hong Kong, is to pause and wait. Existing projects are advised to heed "window guidance," either stopping operations or completely transitioning to a full offshore model. In conclusion, RWA was never truly viable in mainland China under the current rules. The recent notices simply reinforce existing red lines. The real opportunity for ambitious Chinese companies lies in complex, fully offshore operations that meticulously navigate legal compliance, foreign exchange management, and international private placement rules—completely severed from mainland RMB, retail investors, and domestic promotional channels. The paramount advice is longevity over speed; legal red lines are not to be tested. The current silence may precede future standardization. Those planning offshore RWA ventures are advised to seek professional legal consultation for compliance and structuring.

marsbit12/29 11:36

Thirteen Ministries and Seven Associations Issue Document to Prevent Virtual Currency Risks, Where is the Path for RWA?

marsbit12/29 11:36

Thirteen Ministries and Seven Associations Issue Document to Prevent Virtual Currency Risks, Where is the Path for RWA?

Summary: On December 5th, seven Chinese industry associations, following a prior inter-ministerial meeting, issued a "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Activities Involving Virtual Currencies." This article analyzes the implications for Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization in mainland China. The core conclusion is that RWA projects are effectively prohibited within mainland China. The warning explicitly states that no RWA activities are approved by financial regulators. Key legal obstacles include: 1) classification as illegal fundraising or unauthorized securities issuance, 2) a complete ban on support from financial institutions and payment platforms, and 3) the non-legal status of related stablecoins, which touches on monetary sovereignty. Operating such projects domestically carries significant legal risks, including potential criminal penalties. However, the article identifies a potential path for offshore operations. While the warning also states that overseas service providers targeting mainland customers is illegal, purely offshore businesses (with assets, capital, servers, and entities all outside China, and no involvement of RMB) might be feasible, particularly in jurisdictions like Hong Kong or Singapore. This is framed as a strategic "release valve" connecting China's internal economy with external cycles. Theoretically, using an ODI (Overseas Direct Investment) structure to transfer asset rights to an offshore SPV for tokenization is possible. But in practice, this faces major hurdles: complex cross-border asset verification (often viewed as capital flight), strict scrutiny and potential blockage of fund repatriation, and legal risks for individuals within China managing the business. The current environment is a high-pressure period. The pragmatic advice is to avoid any domestic operations, including targeting Chinese residents or using RMB. For existing projects, the best strategy is to pause or fully transition to a complete offshore model. The emphasis is on longevity over speed, advising thorough legal compliance and structure design for any overseas RWA ventures.

深潮12/29 11:33

Thirteen Ministries and Seven Associations Issue Document to Prevent Virtual Currency Risks, Where is the Path for RWA?

深潮12/29 11:33

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