# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Regulation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Regulation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

2029 Finale Prediction: When Cryptocurrency Completely "Vanishes", Who Can Remain in This Financial Upheaval?

By 2029, the crypto industry will have transformed into a largely invisible but foundational layer for traditional finance. This timeline outlines the key shifts from now until then. By mid-2026, the most sought-after assets on-chain will not be traditional tokens, but synthetic perpetual contracts for private, high-growth companies (like SpaceX, OpenAI). These become primary price discovery tools, highlighting the market's craving for real-world asset value. Most altcoins enter a sustained bear market as their fundamental lack of asset-backed value is exposed. In late 2026, the "AI + Crypto" narrative largely fades as AI giants prove they don't need crypto infrastructure, except for prediction markets betting on model performance. Simultaneously, a quiet but significant wave of tokenization for institutional assets (money market funds, private credit) begins. The industry splits into a noisy speculative economy and a silent institutional one. Throughout 2027, major public blockchain foundations pivot decisively to serve institutional clients, building compliance toolkits and sales teams. However, key sectors hit growth ceilings: private perpetual contracts are legally restricted from public promotion, stable币 growth is capped by looming political uncertainty, and tokenization projects remain cautious. In 2028, following a U.S. election assumed to maintain a regulatory (not prohibitive) stance, a pivotal change occurs. After a major liquidation crisis exposes the flaws of synthetic contracts lacking a real-asset anchor, new regulations allow the *public solicitation* of private security sales (secondary market shares) to accredited investors. This creates a legitimate, direct on-ramp for retail capital into previously illiquid private equity. By 2029, the resulting bull market is driven by trading in real, innovative company shares (biotech, robotics, AI labs), not speculative tokens. "Crypto" as a distinct asset class recedes; it becomes the mundane, unseen plumbing for this new global private markets infrastructure. Tokens that survive are those capturing real cash flows from this infrastructure. Speculation persists but is marginalized. The core questions posed at the start are answered: token value is tied to legally enforceable claims on real assets, frontier tech adoption happens via private market channels, and crypto's absorption into traditional finance is marked by its becoming boring and invisible. The key validation for this entire thesis is whether, by late 2028, a legal pathway exists for ordinary accredited investors to access private assets directly.

marsbit32 мин. назад

2029 Finale Prediction: When Cryptocurrency Completely "Vanishes", Who Can Remain in This Financial Upheaval?

marsbit32 мин. назад

Anthropic's Triple Moment: Code Leak, Government Confrontation, and Weaponization

This article analyzes Anthropic's recent conflicts and strategic moves following the U.S. government's emergency halt of its new Fable model, citing national security concerns over potential "jailbreaks." The author argues this incident reveals deeper tensions between AI labs, governments, and the software industry. While critics view Anthropic's safety-focused rhetoric as marketing fear, the author suggests it serves as a commercial moat masking the company's core economic imperative: moving closer to end-users and their valuable data to avoid being commoditized. The piece outlines a coming clash between frontier AI labs like Anthropic and established software companies. Labs need real-world usage data for model improvement via reinforcement learning, creating a cycle where better products attract more users and more data. This threatens software firms who, as Microsoft's Satya Nadella warns, risk having their value captured by a few dominant models. Anthropic's controversial policy changes—initially secretly degrading Fable's performance for LLM development and expanding data retention—are framed as assertions of control, justified by its safety narrative. The company's foundational belief that it alone is sufficiently concerned about superintelligent AI dangers legitimizes its actions, from resisting government demands to shaping usage policies. The author concludes that this alignment of mission, talent, and business strategy is powerful but concerning, as it concentrates immense potential power in the hands of those convinced of their own righteous understanding.

marsbit1 ч. назад

Anthropic's Triple Moment: Code Leak, Government Confrontation, and Weaponization

marsbit1 ч. назад

Will the Next Crypto Bull Run Start with On-Chain Trading of SpaceX?

This article presents a scenario-based forecast for the crypto industry from 2026 to 2029, arguing that the next major cycle will be driven not by technological narratives but by legal access to real-world assets. The author predicts that by mid-2026, pre-IPO perpetual contracts for top private companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic on platforms like Hyperliquid will become the primary gateway for accessing quality assets, as most crypto-native tokens fail to capture real value. The much-hyped AI x Crypto intersection largely fails except for prediction markets, which thrive on betting on AI model supremacy. By 2027, public blockchain foundations are forced to choose between catering to retail speculation or building compliant infrastructure for institutions, with many opting for the latter. Growth in stablecoins and tokenized private credit/equity hits a "triple ceiling" due to regulatory and political uncertainty rather than market demand. The pivotal shift is forecast for 2028. A major liquidation event in pre-IPO perpetuals exposes the structural flaw of synthetic markets lacking a real underlying asset anchor. In response, regulatory changes finally allow the public solicitation of private securities resales to verified accredited investors. This creates a legitimate secondary market for real company equity, which then becomes the core asset class of the new bull market, relegating synthetic perps to a niche role. By 2029, the industry becomes "boring" but foundational. Tokens without claims on real cash flows or assets cease trading. Stablecoin growth is steady but politically capped. Crypto infrastructure fades from view as it gets absorbed into traditional finance backends. The article's central thesis is that the key bottleneck for crypto's next phase is legal and regulatory channels for real asset ownership, not technology.

marsbit9 ч. назад

Will the Next Crypto Bull Run Start with On-Chain Trading of SpaceX?

marsbit9 ч. назад

Following US Ban on Fable 5, Zhipu AI's Stock Soars 47%

On June 15th, shares of Zhipu AI surged dramatically on the Hong Kong stock market, peaking at a 47.6% gain before closing 32.82% higher. This sharp increase was directly triggered by two recent industry events. On June 12th, Anthropic announced it was suspending global access to its latest flagship models, Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5, to comply with a U.S. government export control order. The next day, Zhipu AI announced it would open access to its latest open-source flagship model, GLM-5.2, under the permissive MIT license. The Anthropic incident highlighted a critical issue beyond raw model capability: the risk of sudden, unpredictable loss of access to advanced AI models, especially for developers and enterprises deeply integrated with them. This has shifted industry and market focus toward factors like stability, sustainable access, and controllability. Zhipu's move, promoting "frontier intelligence for all," positions its openly available model as a reliable and accessible alternative. The GLM-5.2 model emphasizes "Long Horizon Task" capabilities with a 1M context window, targeting complex, multi-step coding and engineering workflows where maintaining context is crucial. Analysts note this event exposes the risk of dependency on closed-source models subject to single jurisdictional controls, potentially accelerating a shift toward domestic base models and localized deployments. The market's reaction signals a new valuation dimension in AI: providers who can offer stable, long-term, and sustainably accessible AI capabilities are gaining strategic importance.

marsbit19 ч. назад

Following US Ban on Fable 5, Zhipu AI's Stock Soars 47%

marsbit19 ч. назад

SEC Proposes Repealing 20-Year Core Rule: The Biggest Barrier to Tokenized US Stocks Is Disappearing

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has voted to propose repealing Rule 611 of Regulation NMS, the "order protection rule" that has been a cornerstone of U.S. equity market structure since 2005. This move, while a story of traditional finance, represents a major potential policy shift for tokenized U.S. stocks, removing a key structural barrier. Rule 611 mandates that trading centers cannot execute trades at prices inferior to protected quotes displayed on other exchanges. This framework is fundamentally incompatible with Automated Market Makers (AMMs) used in decentralized finance (DeFi). AMMs execute trades along bonding curves with price slippage and cannot comply with the rule's real-time, price-by-price requirements, meaning any tokenized stock liquidity pool would be in violation. The proposed repeal would replace the prescriptive rule with a principles-based "best execution" obligation on broker-dealers. This allows brokers to route orders to on-chain liquidity pools like AMMs, fulfilling their duty through periodic review rather than per-trade enforcement. The proposal is backed by significant historical context. SEC Chair Atkins, who voted against Reg NMS in 2005 alongside Commissioner Glassman, is now acting on his decades-old dissent. They argued Rule 611 would distort markets and push liquidity into dark pools rather than improve transparency—a prediction validated by current SEC data showing nearly half of trading now occurs off-exchange. The SEC's proposal explicitly connects to the crypto industry, citing academic work that Rule 611 has prevented innovation like AMMs and atomic settlement in stock markets. The process has been deliberate, following public roundtables and comments. While tokenized securities face other regulatory hurdles, this repeal is seen as a critical first step in clearing the path for next-generation market structure innovation.

marsbit22 ч. назад

SEC Proposes Repealing 20-Year Core Rule: The Biggest Barrier to Tokenized US Stocks Is Disappearing

marsbit22 ч. назад

Crypto 2029: The Ultimate Prediction of the Four-Year Cycle in the Encryption Industry

Crypto 2029: A Four-Year Cycle Forecast This analysis predicts key developments in the cryptocurrency industry from 2025 to 2029, arguing that the sector's evolution will be defined by legal and regulatory shifts, not just technology. By mid-2026, a market for perpetual futures contracts on private companies (like SpaceX) on platforms like Hyperliquid emerges as the primary venue for pricing premium assets, overshadowing speculative altcoins. The "AI + Crypto" narrative fades as AI companies operate successfully without blockchain. Meanwhile, a quiet institutional adoption of tokenized traditional assets (like money market funds) begins under new regulations like the CLARITY Act. In 2027, major public blockchain foundations pivot decisively to serve institutional clients, building compliance infrastructure. However, three sectors hit ceilings: private company perpetuals due to advertising restrictions, stablecoins due to political uncertainty ahead of the 2028 US election, and tokenization due to cautious scaling. The 2028 US election (assuming a Democratic win) reduces regulatory uncertainty. A major liquidation event in the private company perpetuals market exposes the flaw of synthetic derivatives lacking a legally enforceable underlying asset. In response, regulators ease rules, allowing the open marketing of secondary private equity shares to verified accredited investors. This creates a legal, direct market for assets previously only accessible via synthetic contracts. By 2029, a new bull market is driven by trading in real private equity shares of innovative companies (biotech, robotics, AI). Tokens without legal claims to real assets lose all liquidity. Stablecoin growth is steady but politically capped. Speculative crypto trading shrinks to a niche. Cryptocurrency's role as financial infrastructure becomes invisible and mundane, akin to back-end settlement systems. The three core questions are answered: Token value derives from legal claims to real assets. Frontier tech adopts crypto via private market trading channels. Crypto's integration into traditional finance becomes complete and unremarkable. The central, testable prediction is that by late 2028, legal pathways for mainstream investor access to private assets will have opened; if not, this entire forecast fails.

marsbit22 ч. назад

Crypto 2029: The Ultimate Prediction of the Four-Year Cycle in the Encryption Industry

marsbit22 ч. назад

The Rise of Prediction Markets: Why Is This Trillion-Dollar Industry Making U.S. Regulators 'Sit on Pins and Needles'?

The article, "The Rise of Prediction Markets: Why Is the Trillion-Dollar Trend Making US Regulators Uneasy?", explores the rapid growth of prediction markets and the regulatory pushback they face. It argues that platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where users trade contracts on real-world outcomes, create highly efficient information aggregates. Their monthly trading volume has surpassed $24 billion, with projections pointing toward a trillion-dollar annual market by 2030. A core example is the 2026 Iran conflict, where prediction market signals accurately foreshadowed the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and an oil price spike hours before official announcements, outperforming traditional analysts. The piece contends US regulators' primary motivation is not public protection but self-preservation and control. It cites a court ruling against the CFTC, which found the agency's concerns over market manipulation "speculative" and lacking concrete evidence. At the state level, the driving force is framed as lost tax revenue from traditional gambling, not documented social harm. Citing economist Friedrich Hayek, the article concludes that prediction markets excel by crowdsourcing decentralized, "local knowledge" into a dynamic, continuous price signal, offering a real-time reality check against official narratives and static forecasts.

marsbit22 ч. назад

The Rise of Prediction Markets: Why Is This Trillion-Dollar Industry Making U.S. Regulators 'Sit on Pins and Needles'?

marsbit22 ч. назад

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