On the Eve of the Fed Rate Cut, Has the Bitcoin Bear Market Already Completed 90%?
Bitcoin's bear market, measured against gold rather than the U.S. dollar, may be 90% complete. Analysis shows that BTC/gold peaked in December 2024 and has since declined over 50%, breaking below the 350-day moving average—a historical indicator of bear market onset. Previous bear cycles in gold terms saw drawdowns of 76–86% over 350–400 days, suggesting the current 51% decline over a similar period may be nearing a bottom.
Key retracement levels from Fibonacci analysis indicate strong support zones. The 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels from the last cycle low to the recent high correspond to approximately 22.81 and 19.07 ounces of gold per bitcoin, respectively. When converted to U.S. dollars, these suggest a potential accumulation zone between $67,000 and $80,000.
Multi-cycle technical signals and reduced selling pressure from increased institutional adoption imply the bear market may conclude earlier than expected, with the current phase offering a strategic entry point.
marsbit25 мин. назад
