# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Investment

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Investment", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Circle's Pullback: Still Worth Buying?

Circle: Still Worth Buying After the Pullback? Circle, the issuer of the second-largest stablecoin USDC, is at a critical juncture. Its current valuation of $15-20B primarily reflects its interest income from $770B in USDC reserves. However, data suggests a potential transformation into a fee-based digital dollar infrastructure network. Key evidence for this shift includes: * USDC's on-chain transaction volume grew 247% in FY2025, far outpacing its 72% circulation growth, indicating it's being *used* more, not just held. * Adjusted for on-chain noise, USDC dominates real economic settlement volume (64% per Visa data), despite USDT having 2.4x its market cap. Circle's three-layer revenue structure is evolving: 1. **Interest Income (95% of current revenue):** Tied to USDC circulation and interest rates. Faces headwinds from potential Fed cuts and a revenue-sharing agreement with Coinbase. 2. **Payment & Transaction Fees:** The key to becoming an infrastructure play. The Circle Payments Network (CPN) is scaling rapidly ($5.7B annualized TPV), and non-interest revenue surged to $37M/quarter. 3. **Settlement Platform (Arc):** A long-term bet on becoming an institutional settlement standard, though its value remains unproven. Near-term catalysts include the Coinbase revenue-sharing agreement renewal (Aug 2026) and potential full OCC bank charter approval. A 3-5x return is plausible if USDC circulation grows at 40% CAGR. A 10x return requires multiple successes: CPN scaling, improved Coinbase terms, non-interest revenue exceeding 10% of total, and progress on Arc. Major risks include faster-than-expected interest rate declines, Tether achieving greater legitimacy, and competition from new yield-bearing stablecoins and payment giants like Stripe. The investment thesis hinges on tracking three metrics: USDC circulation growth, its velocity (via Visa data), and the growth of non-interest revenue. The data is leaning toward a successful transformation, but it is not yet guaranteed.

marsbit04/04 01:00

Circle's Pullback: Still Worth Buying?

marsbit04/04 01:00

If We Gathered the Most Accurate Gold Forecasters in History, Could We Crack the Future Price of Gold?

The article investigates whether assembling the most historically accurate gold price forecasters could unlock future price movements. The author analyzes three groups: top Wall Street institutions (e.g., LBMA, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan), prominent gold bulls (e.g., Peter Schiff, Jim Rickards), and analysts famed for precise calls (e.g., Nouriel Roubini, Ben McMillan). The findings reveal significant flaws. Institutions consistently exhibit "lagging predictions," adjusting forecasts too slowly and underestimating bull market magnitudes. Pundits perpetually predict extreme price targets (e.g., $35,000) without precise timing, often being early or wrong. Even "prophetic" forecasters have mixed records; Roubini missed the entire 2009-2012 bull market, and Ray Dalio has a history of erroneous crisis predictions. The analysis notes that the current environment mirrors 2011, where extreme predictions clustered near the market top. Today, forecasts from the same experts range wildly from $5,400 to $35,000. The conclusion is that no consistently accurate forecaster exists. Predictions are often right by chance, not skill. The author ultimately rejects seeking a "wealth password" and instead advocates for a Dalio-inspired approach: avoiding precise price predictions, acknowledging uncertainty, and using portfolio allocation (e.g., 5-15% in gold) for long-term risk management.

marsbit04/03 10:26

If We Gathered the Most Accurate Gold Forecasters in History, Could We Crack the Future Price of Gold?

marsbit04/03 10:26

The Year of Physical AI: A Trillion-Dollar Gamble on 'How the World Works'

The year 2026 is being positioned as the dawn of the "Physical AI" era, marked by major funding rounds and technological breakthroughs. This shift signifies AI's evolution from understanding the digital world to perceiving and acting within the physical world. Key events include Yann LeCun's AMI Labs raising $1.03 billion to develop "world models," Fei-Fei Li's World Labs securing funding, and companies like Tesla deploying humanoid robots (Optimus) in factories. This transition expands the AI model competition into a broader infrastructure battle encompassing hardware, data, simulation, and real-world integration. The core debate is between two AI paths: the established LLM (Large Language Model) approach focused on text prediction and the emerging "world model" approach, which aims to understand physical states for action-oriented tasks. Hardware, particularly dexterous robotic hands, is a critical and expensive challenge. Companies are racing to build capable robotic bodies, with Tesla, Boston Dynamics, and Figure AI making significant progress. NVIDIA is positioning itself as the essential infrastructure provider for this new era, offering a full suite of development tools and platforms. A major bottleneck is the scarcity of high-quality physical world interaction data, with companies exploring solutions through real-world data collection, synthetic data generation, and human teleoperation. Substantial investments in Q1 2026, exceeding $6.4 billion, signal strong belief in Physical AI's potential, moving beyond concept validation into infrastructure building. While challenges like the sim-to-real gap, unproven business models, and safety regulations remain, the tangible engineering progress suggests this is a genuine technological inflection point, not merely a bubble. For the global Chinese community, this shift represents a significant structural opportunity to leverage their strengths in technology, engineering, hardware manufacturing, and cross-border collaboration to become key players in building the foundational layers of the Physical AI ecosystem.

marsbit04/03 09:39

The Year of Physical AI: A Trillion-Dollar Gamble on 'How the World Works'

marsbit04/03 09:39

MSX Q1 Review and Q2 Outlook: Securing the Main Trends in U.S. Stocks, A Methodology for Precise Stock Selection

MSX Q1 Review & Q2 Outlook: Capturing the U.S. Stock Market Trends and a Precision Stock Selection Methodology In Q1 2026, the crypto market performed poorly, with Bitcoin falling about 23%, marking its worst quarterly start since 2018. In contrast, the U.S. stock market, despite significant drops in the "Magnificent Seven," still saw profitable opportunities in rapidly rotating hot sectors. The decentralized RWA trading platform MSX listed 39 new U.S. stock tokenized assets, covering five main themes: aerospace/defense, energy/resources, AI hardware, optical communications, and regional allocation tools. Among these, 38 achieved positive returns, with an average gain of 37.6%. Four stocks more than doubled, all concentrated in AI hardware and optical communications. MSX's stock selection framework focuses on identifying companies with clear industrial trends, tangible order flows, and earnings validation, rather than speculative narratives. The platform avoids high-risk bets on large-cap reversals, instead targeting small and mid-cap stocks benefiting from real capital expenditure and supply chain expansion. In Q1, the five main themes were identified through continuous tracking of corporate earnings, capex guidance, and capital flow dynamics—not macro forecasts alone. AI hardware and optical communications were confirmed as systemic opportunities based on actual order transfers and infrastructure demand from big tech's expanding data centers. Although aerospace/defense and regional tools had modest gains, they provided portfolio diversification and non-correlated hedges, enhancing structural resilience. MSX's listing节奏 was dynamically adjusted based on market signals and industrial data rather than pre-set schedules. Looking ahead, Q2 may see a continuation of the AI narrative but with increased selectivity. Aerospace and undervalued software/SaaS sectors present new opportunities. MSX emphasizes a balanced approach: maintaining core exposure to high-conviction AI infrastructure plays while incorporating defensive assets like energy and tools to navigate macro uncertainties, including interest rate paths and geopolitical risks. The platform aims to help users, especially those from crypto backgrounds, build robust, multi-asset strategies through education and thematic investing tools.

Odaily星球日报04/03 06:07

MSX Q1 Review and Q2 Outlook: Securing the Main Trends in U.S. Stocks, A Methodology for Precise Stock Selection

Odaily星球日报04/03 06:07

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