# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Halving

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Halving", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Bitcoin's Post-Halving Supply Change Is Permanently Locked by Mathematical Rules

The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024, at block height 840,000, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This event, programmed into Bitcoin’s protocol and triggered automatically every 210,000 blocks, reinforces its deterministic and transparent monetary policy. Post-halving, daily Bitcoin issuance dropped by approximately 50%, from about 900 BTC to 450 BTC, with annualized issuance falling to around 164,250 BTC. This reduced Bitcoin’s annual supply inflation rate to roughly 0.83%, lower than gold's estimated 1–2% growth and contrasting sharply with central bank-controlled fiat systems. By the end of 2024, approximately 19.7 million BTC were in circulation, leaving fewer than 1.3 million left to be mined. Over 93.8% of the total supply has already been issued. The halving also shifted miner economics, significantly increasing the proportion of transaction fees in their total revenue. This aligns with Bitcoin’s long-term design, where security gradually transitions from block subsidies to fee-based incentives. Unlike traditional monetary systems, Bitcoin’s supply schedule is fixed, irreversible, and independent of market conditions. The next halving, expected around 2028, will further reduce the block reward to 1.5625 BTC. With the latest halving complete, Bitcoin’s low issuance rate is no longer a short-term event but a permanent baseline feature—verifiable, predictable, and enforced by code and consensus.

marsbit12/28 14:49

Bitcoin's Post-Halving Supply Change Is Permanently Locked by Mathematical Rules

marsbit12/28 14:49

Bitcoin – Is it a case of ‘pain today, gains tomorrow’ for BTC’s price?

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing significant near-term weakness, with a projected 19.15% decline in Q4 2024. Indicators such as the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) suggest ongoing capitulation, potentially leading to several more months of sideways movement or further decline. Short-term holders are selling at a loss, ETF outflows continue, and market sentiment remains in "extreme fear." However, analysts like Bitwise predict that Bitcoin could break its traditional four-year cycle and reach new highs in 2026. Key factors driving this optimistic outlook include the halving event, growing institutional adoption, and increasing ETF demand. Additionally, Bitcoin is showing signs of maturation, with lower volatility in 2025 compared to assets like Nvidia, indicating it is behaving more like a stable, established asset. Bitcoin's position as a top-10 global asset, alongside giants like gold and major tech stocks, underscores its growing permanence in the financial landscape. Institutions are increasingly treating it as a core holding, lending it significant credibility. While short-term challenges persist, the long-term trajectory suggests that current weakness may represent a transitional phase toward greater stability and value.

ambcrypto12/28 04:06

Bitcoin – Is it a case of ‘pain today, gains tomorrow’ for BTC’s price?

ambcrypto12/28 04:06

Bitcoin Mining Crash: Bitmain Slashes Hardware Costs To Stay Afloat

Bitmain has significantly reduced prices for its Bitcoin ASIC hardware, including models like the S19e XP Hydro, to as low as $3 per TH/s, in response to plummeting mining profitability and high inventory levels. This follows the April 2024 halving, which cut block rewards, and a sharp Bitcoin price drop from its October 2025 peak. Mining revenue per TH/s has hit multi-year lows, forcing operators to reassess expansion and seek cheaper equipment or power. The price cuts are aimed at clearing stock quickly, triggering secondary market declines and bulk sales. While some miners see short-term relief with low power costs, the industry faces potential consolidation unless Bitcoin’s price recovers.

bitcoinist12/27 19:32

Bitcoin Mining Crash: Bitmain Slashes Hardware Costs To Stay Afloat

bitcoinist12/27 19:32

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Rose 35% In 2025, Data Shows

In 2025, Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 35%, rising from 109.8 trillion hashes at the start of the year to 148.2 trillion. This growth was driven by a significant expansion in the network's computing power, with the 7-day average hashrate climbing from 795.7 TH/s to 1,070.3 TH/s, peaking at a record 1,151.6 TH/s in October. Although both hashrate and difficulty have declined since then, they remain substantially higher than January levels. The increase in difficulty is a direct response to the rising hashrate, as the network automatically adjusts to maintain a 10-minute block time. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price has been volatile, recently consolidating around $87,300 after briefly surpassing $89,000.

bitcoinist12/27 13:55

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Rose 35% In 2025, Data Shows

bitcoinist12/27 13:55

Broke the Cycle. How Bitcoin's Price Changed Over 10 Years on Christmas

The article "Прервал цикличность. Как менялась цена биткоина за 10 лет в Рождество" (Breaking the Cycle: How Bitcoin's Price Changed Over 10 Christmases) analyzes the price of Bitcoin on December 25th for each year from 2015 to 2025. The key finding is that 2025 broke a recent pattern. After nine years where a price drop only occurred the year after three consecutive years of growth, Bitcoin's price in 2025 fell by 11% to $87,600 from the previous Christmas ($98,700 in 2024). This decline is attributed to macroeconomic shocks and large-scale liquidation events in October, making it only the third year in the dataset with a year-over-year Christmas decline. The summary of each year's price and key drivers is as follows: * **2015:** $456 - Consolidation phase. * **2016:** $894 (+96%) - Growth ahead of the halving. * **2017:** $14,300 (+1500%) - Peak of retail frenzy. * **2018:** $4,000 (-72%) - Deep correction after the bubble. * **2019:** $7,300 (+81%) - Initial recovery. * **2020:** $23,800 (+227%) - New institutional cycle begins. * **2021:** $50,900 (+114%) - New all-time high. * **2022:** $16,800 (-67%) - "Crypto winter" with major collapses. * **2023:** $43,000 (+155%) - Recovery on ETF approval hopes. * **2024:** $98,700 (+130%) - Bull run continues post-ETF launch. * **2025:** $87,600 (-11%) - Correction due to macroeconomics. The article concludes that while Bitcoin's growth cycles reach new levels with greater institutional adoption, the 2025 price drop is a reminder that the maturing market remains volatile and sensitive to global risks. A standard disclaimer notes that the content is for informational purposes and cryptocurrency is a volatile asset.

RBK-crypto12/25 14:28

Broke the Cycle. How Bitcoin's Price Changed Over 10 Years on Christmas

RBK-crypto12/25 14:28

Bitcoin's 'Never-Setting Sun' and Altcoins' 'Twilight of the Gods': Has the Four-Year Cycle Really Ended?

The crypto market in 2025 is experiencing an unprecedented divergence: Bitcoin (BTC) reached new highs of $125,000 driven by institutional inflows via ETFs, while Ethereum (ETH) struggled around $2,800, and most altcoins fell 80-95% from their 2021 peaks. The traditional four-year cycle—where BTC leads, ETH follows, and altcoins surge—has broken down. This "great divergence" is fueled by institutionalization. BTC has become a "digital tech stock," correlated with Nasdaq, as traditional asset managers like BlackRock channel hundreds of billions solely into Bitcoin, creating a "one-way siphon" that leaves altcoins behind. ETH faces a "midlife crisis" due to Layer 2 solutions diverting value away from the mainnet and a lack of compelling new narratives. Altcoins are in a "liquidity black hole," plagued by high FDV/low float VC tokens, meme coin fatigue, and collapsing exchange liquidity. Major 2026 forecasts from Grayscale and CoinShares predict this structural shift is permanent. They expect BTC dominance to rise further, with BTC potentially reaching $150,000, while ETH undergoes a painful transformation. Most altcoins will be wiped out in a "Darwinian cleansing," with only projects offering real utility, sustainable revenue, and a clear regulatory path surviving. The four-year cycle isn't dead but has transformed. Future cycles may be "lame bull markets" where BTC rallies alone or with minimal spillover, signaling a permanent shift from a speculative, retail-driven market to an institutionalized, utility-focused one.

marsbit12/25 00:21

Bitcoin's 'Never-Setting Sun' and Altcoins' 'Twilight of the Gods': Has the Four-Year Cycle Really Ended?

marsbit12/25 00:21

The Four-Year Cycle Concludes, Crypto Market Embarks on a Decade-Long Protracted War

In a recent article, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan addresses the question of whether Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle—characterized by three years of gains followed by a crash in the fourth—remains relevant. He argues that the cycle, driven by factors like Bitcoin halvings, interest rate spikes, and post-bubble crashes, is losing significance due to changing conditions. The 2026 halving may have reduced impact, interest rates are likely to decrease, and the market hasn’t seen the extreme euphoria of previous cycles. Instead, Hougan proposes a "decade-long grinding advance" as the new framework, where sustained positive forces—such as institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and real-world applications like stablecoins—gradually outweigh intermittent negative shocks like macroeconomic events or leverage-induced selloffs. This shift suggests more moderate long-term returns, lower volatility, and periodic 20-40% corrections, marking a maturation of the crypto market since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. Investors should expect a prolonged tug-of-war between these forces, requiring patience and a focus on fundamentals despite short-term downturns.

marsbit12/24 12:01

The Four-Year Cycle Concludes, Crypto Market Embarks on a Decade-Long Protracted War

marsbit12/24 12:01

What Are Crypto Users Most Concerned About in 2025? 10 AI Models Give Different Answers

The article explores what cryptocurrency users might be most concerned about in 2025 by querying 10 major AI models with the same prompt. Each model was asked to list the top three questions crypto users would frequently ask in 2025, with instructions to avoid real-time searches and rely on their understanding of long-term discussion patterns. The models provided varied responses, reflecting their unique focuses and contextual training. For instance, ChatGPT emphasized market cycles and alpha opportunities, while Grok focused on narratives like Bitcoin halving and ETF inflows. Perplexity prioritized price trends and scams, and Claude highlighted risk management for beginners. Gemini leaned toward real-world assets and technical roadmaps like L2 and AI integration. Chinese models like Douban and Wenxin were more aligned with regulatory impacts and market cycles, whereas Kimi delved into practical on-chain issues like wallet security and MEV. Overall, the questions centered on three core themes: market cycle positioning, profit opportunities, and risk management. The diversity in responses suggests differences in model design, data training, and intended use cases, with more advanced models often providing more structured and specific questions. The findings reflect the crypto community’s persistent focus on volatility, narrative-driven markets, and the balance between seeking returns and avoiding risks.

marsbit12/24 03:12

What Are Crypto Users Most Concerned About in 2025? 10 AI Models Give Different Answers

marsbit12/24 03:12

A New Perspective on the Four-Year Crypto Cycle: I Asked Seven Industry Veterans What Stage We're In Now

The article "A New Perspective on Crypto's Four-Year Cycle: Insights from Seven Industry Veterans" explores whether the traditional four-year market cycle, historically driven by Bitcoin halving events, still holds true in today's crypto market. Key points from seven experts include: - The four-year cycle, once driven by Bitcoin's supply reduction from halving, is now increasingly influenced by macro liquidity, institutional adoption, and global financial policies (e.g., U.S. elections, Fed policies). - ETF inflows and institutional capital have altered price action, flattening post-halving rallies and reducing volatility as Bitcoin matures into a trillion-dollar asset. - Experts disagree on the current market phase: some see a bearish transition due to declining miner profitability and capital outflow to AI stocks, while others view it as a mid-to-late bull cycle correction with potential for slow, structural growth driven by macro liquidity. - The "altcoin season" may not return in its traditional form; future outperformance will likely be selective, focused on utility-driven projects rather than broad speculative rallies. - Most experts have reduced altcoin exposure, favoring BTC, ETH, and stablecoins, with cash reserves above 50% in some cases. - Advice for investors: avoid leverage, consider gradual accumulation (e.g., below $60K for BTC), and prioritize discipline over timing. Consensus: The four-year cycle is evolving from a rigid halving-driven model to a more complex, macro-dependent framework, with reduced returns and slower, institution-led growth defining the future.

Odaily星球日报12/23 09:34

A New Perspective on the Four-Year Crypto Cycle: I Asked Seven Industry Veterans What Stage We're In Now

Odaily星球日报12/23 09:34

A New Perspective on the Four-Year Crypto Cycle: I Asked Seven Industry Veterans What Stage We're In Now

"The article explores whether the four-year crypto market cycle, historically driven by Bitcoin halving events, remains relevant. Seven industry experts share their views, noting that while the cycle was once supply-driven, its influence is diminishing due to Bitcoin's maturation, institutional adoption via ETFs, and macro liquidity factors. Most agree the cycle is evolving into a narrative shaped by broader financial conditions, not just halvings. Current market performance—Bitcoin’s reduced post-halving gains and weak altcoin momentum—reflects this shift. Experts are divided on the current phase: some see a bear market beginning, while others view it as a mid-to-late bull cycle correction with potential for slow, structural growth. Key future drivers include institutional adoption, macro liquidity, and stablecoin integration. Alt seasons may become selective, focused on utility tokens rather than broad rallies. Portfolio strategies are cautious, with many experts holding significant cash or blue-chip assets like BTC and ETH. Advice for investors emphasizes disciplined, gradual accumulation over leveraged bets, with ideal entry points around $60K or lower."

marsbit12/23 09:33

A New Perspective on the Four-Year Crypto Cycle: I Asked Seven Industry Veterans What Stage We're In Now

marsbit12/23 09:33

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