# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Halving

‘Too chaotic to predict’ – Can Bitcoin really survive 2026 volatility?

There is no consensus among analysts regarding Bitcoin's price outlook for 2026. Fundstrat warned of potential short-term downside toward $60K–$65K due to ETF inflow exhaustion and miner selling, contradicting their own head of research’s $200K prediction. Galaxy’s Alex Thorn described 2026 as “too chaotic to predict,” citing high uncertainty around elections, though he remained confident in a $250K target by 2027. In contrast, Bitwise and Grayscale projected new all-time highs in the first half of 2026. Near-term, Bitcoin is expected to remain range-bound between $85K–$90K until December 26, when $23 billion in options expire—a event that could trigger significant volatility. Recent ETF outflows of $500 million and tepid demand since October may further suppress prices.

ambcrypto12/21 17:01

Bitcoin – Could 2026 be an ‘off year’ for BTC’s price?

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading below its 2025 opening level of around $93,576, with slowing market momentum as the year ends. Analysts, including Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer, suggest 2026 could be an “off year” for BTC, potentially seeing a decline to the $65,000–$75,000 range based on historical halving cycle patterns. Market demand remains weak, with recent activity reflecting internal wallet reshuffling rather than genuine accumulation. Regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic shifts, including divergent central bank policies, have led to cautious investor behavior. Despite institutional growth through ETFs, Bitcoin may see increased correlation with traditional markets, potentially reducing its role as a pure inflation hedge.

ambcrypto12/19 17:02

Fidelity macro lead calls $65K Bitcoin bottom in 2026, end of bull cycle

Fidelity's global macro director Jurrien Timmer suggests Bitcoin may have peaked at its $125,000 all-time high in October, marking the end of its typical four-year halving cycle. He predicts a potential downturn with support level around $65,000–75,000 and a possible "off year" for Bitcoin in 2026. This view contrasts with analysts like Delphi Digital's Tom Shaughnessy, who expects new all-time highs in 2026 once the market recovers from October’s major liquidation event. Regulatory progress and institutional adoption are cited as potential bullish drivers, though current social sentiment remains bearish as Bitcoin dipped below $85,000. Data also shows "smart money" traders are net short on Bitcoin but long on Ethereum.

cointelegraph12/19 10:52

Bitcoin Could Remain Calmer Than Nvidia Through 2026, Bitwise Predicts

bitcoinist12/19 06:02

Is Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle finally breaking? This post-halving data says…

Bitcoin's traditional 4-year cycle, historically defined by post-halving rallies followed by sharp corrections, may be breaking. The 2024 halving did not trigger the typical strong upside; instead, BTC is on track to close the first post-halving year down roughly 7%. This deviation is attributed to new fundamentals, including institutional inflows, declining exchange reserves, ETF launches, and broader macroeconomic support. These factors are helping stabilize Bitcoin, potentially avoiding extreme boom-bust swings and suggesting a transition into a prolonged "supercycle" rather than a repeat of past patterns.

ambcrypto12/18 23:06

Bitcoin Network Activity Drops to Yearly Low. What Has Changed

Bitcoin network activity has dropped to its lowest level of the year, with the 7-day moving average of active addresses falling to 660,000. This decline is attributed to reduced activity following the peak in December 2024, which was driven by Ordinals and Runes protocols. These technologies, used for creating and trading on the Bitcoin blockchain, have shifted transaction dynamics, now accounting for most transactions but contributing only 5-10% of total fee revenue. This shift has negatively impacted miner economics. Daily miner revenue has decreased from around $50 million in Q3 to approximately $40 million, with fees making up a smaller portion of earnings (0.65% in December compared to 2.73% a year ago). Average transaction fees have also fallen to $0.48, down from $3.7 a year earlier. With block subsidies continuing to halve (currently 3.125 BTC per block until spring 2028), miner profitability is increasingly dependent on transaction fees. Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA Holdings, warned that without Bitcoin appreciating by at least 50% annually or a significant rise in network fees, traditional mining could become unprofitable in the coming years.

RBK-crypto12/16 13:14

Reviewing Past Bitcoin Bull Markets: Why the Four-Year Cycle Occurs and Is It Over?

The article examines Bitcoin's four-year market cycles, traditionally aligned with its halving events, and questions whether this pattern still holds. It outlines the typical cycle phases: accumulation (low volatility, long-term buying), pre-halving bullish anticipation, a parabolic bull run with retail FOMO and leverage, and a sharp correction leading to a bear market. Bitcoin halvings, which reduce mining rewards by half every four years, are highlighted as a core mechanism for creating scarcity, similar to precious metals. Past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) are reviewed, each driven by distinct catalysts (e.g., Mt. Gox collapse, ICO boom, COVID-19 stimulus) and ending with crashes exceeding 80%. Reasons for the cycle include the stock-to-flow model (measuring scarcity), market psychology/self-fulfilling prophecies, and global liquidity conditions. The current 2025 cycle is noted for unprecedented institutional involvement via ETFs and corporate treasuries, causing Bitcoin to hit new highs before the 2024 halving with less retail participation. Arguments for the cycle's end cite increased adoption by disciplined institutions (reducing volatility), Bitcoin's growing correlation with macro factors like Fed policy, and the diminishing impact of each halving. Key indicators to watch for cycle validation include post-halving price surges, large leverage unwinds, and retail altcoin speculation. The conclusion states that while historical patterns are evident, Bitcoin's evolution into a mainstream asset makes future cycles potentially different. Only time will tell if the four-year cycle persists or becomes obsolete.

marsbit12/16 06:26

Crypto Morning Brief: He Yi Denies Rumors of Binance Alpha Shutdown, Bittensor Completes First Halving

Crypto Exchange Binance's co-founder He Yi has denied rumors about the closure of Binance Alpha. Meanwhile, Bittensor has undergone its first halving, reducing daily TAO issuance from 7,200 to 3,600 tokens. In broader market news, the onshore and offshore RMB hit a 14-month high against the US dollar. Federal Reserve official Williams stated that slowing job growth and easing inflation risks supported the recent decision to cut interest rates. Several significant developments were announced: Aster opened claims for its third-phase airdrop, Ripple plans to expand its stablecoin RLUSD to Ethereum Layer 2 networks, and Ondo Finance will launch the largest tokenized stock and ETF platform on Solana in early 2026. Furthermore, JPMorgan is set to introduce its first tokenized money market fund on Ethereum with a $100 million initial investment, and Visa has launched a stablecoin advisory service. Major institutional reports from Grayscale and Hashdex offered bullish predictions. Grayscale forecasts new Bitcoin highs by mid-2026 and the end of the four-year market cycle, citing institutional adoption and improved regulation. Hashdex predicts the stablecoin market will double, tokenized real-world assets will grow tenfold, and the AI-crypto sector will reach $10 billion.

深潮12/16 01:25

The $150,000 Collective Hallucination: Why Did All Major Institutions Get Bitcoin Wrong in 2025?

At the beginning of 2025, major institutions and analysts were overwhelmingly bullish on Bitcoin, with consensus year-end price predictions reaching $170,000 or higher, driven by three core narratives: the post-halving cycle effect, massive expected inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, and supportive regulatory policies under the Trump administration. However, by December, Bitcoin had fallen over 33% from its October peak to around $92,000, sharply contradicting these forecasts. The collective misjudgment stemmed from several critical errors. First, the market had already priced in ETF inflows, which later underperformed and even saw significant outflows. Second, historical cycle models failed as macro conditions diverged—unlike previous cycles, 2025 faced a hawkish Fed and high interest rates, undermining Bitcoin’s performance. Third, institutional analysts often had structural biases: many worked for firms with vested interests in promoting bullish narratives, leading to over-optimistic targets that served client interests and media attention rather than reality. Finally, Bitcoin’s misclassified as a inflation hedge like gold when it actually behaves more like a high-beta tech stock, highly sensitive to liquidity conditions. The episode underscores that precise price prediction is inherently flawed in a complex, multi-variable market. When consensus forms around a narrative, it often becomes a trap. The key lesson is the importance of independent thinking, valuing contrarian perspectives, and prioritizing risk management over speculative forecasts.

marsbit12/15 14:48

2025 Bitcoin Market Forecast Review: Why Institutions Collectively Crashed and Burned

In early 2025, Bitcoin was widely expected by major institutions—including VanEck, Standard Chartered, and Tom Lee—to reach $150,000 or higher by year-end, driven by post-halving cycles, ETF inflows, and favorable U.S. policy under Trump. However, BTC plummeted over 33% from its October high of $126,000, stabilizing around $92,000 by December. Most forecasts failed due to several critical misjudgments: ETF inflows were overestimated and even reversed to outflows; historical cycle models ignored drastically different macro conditions, including sustained Fed hawkishness; and institutional analysts had structural conflicts of interest, often promoting over-optimistic targets to align with business incentives. The episode underscores that consensus predictions often become traps, especially in a complex, macro-sensitive asset like Bitcoin. It highlights the importance of independent analysis, attention to contrarian views, and prioritizing risk management over speculative price targets.

marsbit12/15 12:21