# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Geopolitics

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Geopolitics", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Latest Report from Top US Think Tank CSIS: 4 Truths and 1 Misjudgment About China's Technology...

Based on a comprehensive CSIS report by Scott Kennedy, this analysis examines China's high-tech drive, highlighting four key realities and one major misjudgment. China has significantly increased R&D investment, reaching $1 trillion (PPP) in 2023, leading to notable successes in sectors like EVs (e.g., BYD) and batteries (e.g., CATL), driven by intense domestic competition and market forces. The biopharma sector thrives through global integration and efficient clinical trials. However, the report identifies persistent structural weaknesses: stagnation in total factor productivity, a quality gap in innovation (e.g., low-value patents), and critical dependencies in semiconductors (reliance on global supply chains for advanced chips) and aviation (e.g., C919's high import dependency). The report argues that China's tech power translates into geopolitical influence through military-civil fusion and growing participation in international standard-setting, though it lacks unilateral rule-making ability. A key misjudgment is the belief in "decoupling." The report finds comprehensive separation is counterproductive, fueling China's self-sufficiency while harming global supply chains, inflation, and green energy transitions. Instead, it advocates for "calibrated coupling": targeted restrictions on critical military technologies while maintaining cooperation in non-strategic areas and global issues like climate change. The ultimate advantage will go to those fostering open, inclusive innovation ecosystems.

marsbit03/10 03:29

Latest Report from Top US Think Tank CSIS: 4 Truths and 1 Misjudgment About China's Technology...

marsbit03/10 03:29

Hormuz Chokepoint: Why A 60% Oil Surge Is Forcing A Violent Bitcoin Cycle Reset

Bitcoin remains below $70,000 amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil transit. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, oil prices have surged over 60% this year, reflecting fears of supply disruption. Since 20% of global oil exports pass through the strait, any threat to its operation impacts energy markets significantly. Rising oil prices fuel broader inflation, tightening financial conditions and altering monetary policy expectations. This macro environment has historically been unfavorable for Bitcoin, as it coincides with late-cycle risk aversion and reduced speculative appetite. Geopolitical instability further discourages risk-taking, increasing volatility across both traditional and digital assets.

bitcoinist03/09 22:32

Hormuz Chokepoint: Why A 60% Oil Surge Is Forcing A Violent Bitcoin Cycle Reset

bitcoinist03/09 22:32

MVC Market View Express (3.9-3.15)

Recent tensions in the Middle East have heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran. The assessment is that the U.S. is unlikely to deploy ground troops, while Iran may use external pressure to legitimize internal political restructuring. A 20% rise in oil prices could trigger a U.S. policy response, keeping the situation broadly manageable. Geopolitical premiums will continue to influence market sentiment until oil falls below $100 per barrel. Long-term trends, especially in commodities and precious metals, remain upward, with new capital being deployed opportunistically on dips. Three key themes are emphasized: 1. Commodities and Resources: Geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the credit system support elevated gold prices. Exposure to gold mining equities is being increased. Copper is viewed as a medium- to long-term allocation, benefiting from future liquidity expansion. 2. Digital Assets: Bitcoin has recently outperformed equities but lacks a clear trend reversal signal. A cautious stance is maintained, prioritizing drawdown control while awaiting confirmation of a turning point in U.S. dollar liquidity. 3. AI and Technology: Current valuations of AI leaders appear full, with limited short-term upside consensus. Future performance will heavily depend on changes in global liquidity conditions. Overall, the strategy remains centered on the themes of “traditional credit system restructuring” and “East-facing allocation,” with a focus on RMB-denominated resource assets to balance certainty and upside potential.

marsbit03/09 11:14

MVC Market View Express (3.9-3.15)

marsbit03/09 11:14

After Oil, Silicon Is the New Chip

This article argues that silicon, not oil, is becoming the key strategic resource in 21st-century geopolitics and warfare. It begins by analyzing the traditional role of oil, examining how energy supplies from Venezuela and Iran influence global conflicts and fund Russia's war efforts. The author suggests that controlling oil prices and supply routes could strategically weaken adversaries. The core argument, however, is a shift in focus. Advanced semiconductors and AI computing power are now the critical "chips" in global competition. The U.S. should treat cutting-edge AI technology as a controlled military asset. AI is already reshaping conflict through enhanced pattern recognition for target identification, battlefield simulation, and enabling precise, small-scale military operations with minimal collateral damage—a shift from overwhelming force to "sneakers on the ground." The author posits that this silicon-driven AI advantage could create a new form of deterrence. Just as mutual assured destruction (MAD) prevented nuclear war, widespread AI-powered war gaming could lead to "Strongly Assured Destruction" (SAD). By simulating certain defeat, potential aggressors might be deterred from starting conflicts, making negotiation more attractive. The conclusion is that control over silicon and AI may ultimately redefine the rules of power and peace.

marsbit03/09 11:03

After Oil, Silicon Is the New Chip

marsbit03/09 11:03

Behind the 25% Surge: The On-Chain Life-and-Death Game of Hyperliquid

A dramatic 25% surge in WTI crude oil prices, reaching $119.5 per barrel, has triggered a high-stakes on-chain showdown on the Hyperliquid derivatives exchange. The price spike was driven by a geopolitical crisis: the seven-day blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil supply. This event led to massive liquidations for several prominent traders who had heavily shorted oil. Key figures include trader CBB, who faced a $3.8 million unrealized loss on a $13.78 million short position, and the account "2 frères 2 fauves," the platform's largest oil short with a $3.4 million loss. Both faced liquidation at $120.76. Another whale, 0x8Af7, was fully liquidated, losing $1.55 million, only to immediately reopen a new $6.48 million short position. In contrast, Sky (formerly MakerDAO) co-founder Rune Christensen profited significantly, gaining over $1.36 million from a $7.82 million long position opened around $93. He employed a sophisticated macro-hedging strategy, simultaneously shorting ETH and equity indices to bet on war-driven oil premiums and risk-off sentiment. The event highlights the emergence and risks of on-chain commodity trading. Platforms like Hyperliquid offer democratized access to leveraged oil futures without traditional brokers or safeguards. However, the automated, unforgiving liquidation mechanisms provide no protection against black swan events like a geopolitical crisis, demonstrating that while the tools are new, the lessons of leverage and risk remain starkly old.

比推03/09 08:45

Behind the 25% Surge: The On-Chain Life-and-Death Game of Hyperliquid

比推03/09 08:45

Recent Bitcoin Correction Could Persist Due To Whale Activity — Santiment

A recent Santiment report indicates that Bitcoin's price correction may persist due to significant whale activity. After Bitcoin reached a one-month high near $74,000, large holders (whales holding 10 to 10,000 BTC) sold approximately 66% of the coins they had accumulated between February 23 and March 3. Meanwhile, retail investors increased their holdings as the price dropped below $70,000. Historically, such behavior—where whales sell while retail buys—often signals that a correction is not yet over. The correlation between whale movements and Bitcoin's price action is currently very high, making it a key short-term indicator. Broader geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, may also contribute to market volatility. As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading around $68,057, down nearly 4% in 24 hours but up 7% over the past week.

bitcoinist03/08 15:54

Recent Bitcoin Correction Could Persist Due To Whale Activity — Santiment

bitcoinist03/08 15:54

Analyst warns Bitcoin may enter ‘new redistribution phase’ – $63,700 next?

The crypto market is experiencing cooling volatility after a period of heightened tension. Bitcoin, which peaked at $73,000 amid the US-Iran conflict, is now in a corrective phase, trading around $67,174. Analysts highlight $63,700 as a critical on-chain support level; a break below could lead to further declines toward $57,000 or even $52,400. A drop to $48,700 would signal a stronger correction and challenge the medium-term bullish outlook. Analyst Joao Wedson warns that losing key structural levels may mark the start of a "new redistribution phase." Bitcoin's current trading range ($67k–$74k) places it in a "high heat" zone, indicating a stretched market. However, long-term holders remain calm, with the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric at 0.34—well below the 2.0 level typical of market tops—suggesting accumulation rather than distribution. Short-term signals remain weak, with the MVRV Ratio near -10%, indicating unrealized losses for recent buyers. Market sentiment reflects "Extreme Fear," with a reading of 12 on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Upcoming geopolitical developments, particularly potential Middle East ceasefire talks, could influence Bitcoin's direction. A ceasefire may boost risk appetite, while prolonged tensions could favor traditional safe-haven assets, potentially limiting Bitcoin's upside above $70,000.

ambcrypto03/08 11:01

Analyst warns Bitcoin may enter ‘new redistribution phase’ – $63,700 next?

ambcrypto03/08 11:01

"Threat" Harvests Before "Action": How Geopolitical Risk Prices the Crypto Market—Transmission Mechanisms and Outlook

Abstract: Geopolitical risk (GPR), particularly the "threat" phase, acts as a key driver of risk premium repricing in financial markets, with significant implications for crypto assets, which now behave as high-beta risk assets deeply embedded within the global macro cycle. The GPR index, which quantifies risk through media analysis, shows that negative effects are primarily driven by threats rather than actual acts of conflict. GPR impacts crypto through several transmission channels: risk aversion (rising VIX), inflation and rate cut fears (via oil price shocks), and market structure amplifiers (24/7 trading, high leverage, and endogenous liquidity loops). These mechanisms explain crypto’s high-beta nature—often correlating positively with Nasdaq—and its tendency toward violent deleveraging and liquidity contraction during stress. Three scenarios are outlined: base case (震荡修复) – slow recovery if risks stabilize; pessimistic (二次探底) – renewed selloff if conflict escalates and inflation spikes; optimistic (高波动超额反弹) – sharp rebound if risks fade and macro conditions improve. Key insights: 1) Markets price GPR threats early via risk-off shifts; 2) Crypto’s high volatility is structurally inherent; 3) Bitcoin behaves more like a high-beta tech asset than digital gold under most macro conditions, with its safe-haven narrative only materializing during severe sovereign or cross-border stress. Investors must integrate GPR into macro frameworks to dynamically assess risk premiums and liquidity conditions.

marsbit03/08 10:40

"Threat" Harvests Before "Action": How Geopolitical Risk Prices the Crypto Market—Transmission Mechanisms and Outlook

marsbit03/08 10:40

The Hormuz Standoff: Why Bitcoin’s Liquidity Drain Is Defying The Global Energy Shock

Bitcoin faced volatility as geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified, causing a drop from above $74,000 to around $70,000. The conflict threatens global energy supplies, reinforcing inflation and increasing capital costs, which led investors reassessing monetary policy. Bitcoin ETFs saw $139.2 million in outflows, reflecting risk aversion. However, on-chain data shows resilience: exchange net flows remain negative, with -501 BTC withdrawn daily and -6,469 BTC weekly, indicating coins are moving to cold storage. This suggests underlying demand persists and selling pressure may be limited despite macro uncertainty.

bitcoinist03/07 12:01

The Hormuz Standoff: Why Bitcoin’s Liquidity Drain Is Defying The Global Energy Shock

bitcoinist03/07 12:01

Rising stablecoins, bullish jobs data, and how crypto is moving past hedge flows

The macro environment is gradually shifting to favor crypto, with recent inflows initially appearing driven by geopolitical hedge-seeking behavior and growing U.S. debt pressures. However, strong jobless claims data and rising stablecoin activity suggest a more sustainable shift. Stablecoin market cap grew 1.08% this week, nearing an all-time high, while on-chain metrics show increased transaction volume and net inflows. This indicates sidelined capital is returning, moving beyond short-term speculative flows toward genuine long-term growth. Bitcoin's reclaiming of $70k may be more than a short squeeze if stablecoin momentum continues, reflecting a broader divergence from macro uncertainty.

ambcrypto03/06 15:01

Rising stablecoins, bullish jobs data, and how crypto is moving past hedge flows

ambcrypto03/06 15:01

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