Is altseason finally brewing? Only if THESE 2 indicators flip first
Hopes for an altcoin season in 2026 are building as investors look beyond Bitcoin, but conditions for a full altcoin rally are not yet firmly in place. Two key indicators need to flip first.
The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 52.6%, its highest in nearly 40 months, pushing U.S. manufacturing into expansion territory. Historically, altcoin rallies followed periods when ISM moved decisively higher, particularly above the 55 mark, as seen in 2017 and 2021. While current levels are below that threshold, a potential turning point may be emerging.
However, Ethereum (ETH), a known harbinger of altseason, has closed in the red for 12 of the last 15 months, showing a prolonged stretch of weakness with uneven gains and frequent drawdowns. Sustained altseasons have almost always followed a clear and consistent uptrend in Ethereum.
Furthermore, the Altcoin Season Index from CoinGlass was at 39, below the level that usually indicates a rotation away from Bitcoin. At the same time, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) remained high near 60% on the daily chart. Altseasons typically begin with a clear decline in BTC dominance as investors move down the risk curve, a shift that has not yet occurred.
Overall, while altseason expectations are growing, they may be premature. Early macro signals are improving, but the market lacks a trigger for a true altseason, and capital remains firmly in Bitcoin.
ambcrypto02/03 17:02
