# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Cycle

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Cycle", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Bitcoin prices fall: Will 2026 mirror BTC’s 2022 bear market?

Bitcoin's 2026 market is showing signs of a potential bear market similar to 2022, but with key differences. According to analysis, this post-halving cycle is the weakest on record, with a -6.3% ROI in 2025, starkly underperforming previous cycles. The rise of ETFs has dampened scarcity-led rallies, with institutional outflows capping upside potential. Unlike the 2018 and 2022 bear markets that followed massive rallies, the current 20% price drop is driven by loss realization rather than a post-euphoria correction. On-chain data, including UTXOs in Loss and negative Net Realized Profit/Loss, mirrors stress levels last seen in 2022, reinforcing the view that 2026 could be the softest post-halving bear market yet.

ambcrypto02/05 15:01

Bitcoin prices fall: Will 2026 mirror BTC’s 2022 bear market?

ambcrypto02/05 15:01

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Support?

Bitcoin has entered a bearish phase, trading below its 21-week moving average, amid policy uncertainty from the U.S. midterm elections and its typical four-year cycle pressures. While structural weakness persists, a weakening U.S. dollar and ongoing reflation narrative could provide medium-term support for risk assets, including Bitcoin. The October 10 flash crash exacerbated market fragility, widening arbitrage gaps and reducing liquidity. Notably, realized losses were largely absorbed by speculative retail investors—particularly on platforms like Hyperliquid—rather than institutional players. Macro conditions show tolerance for a weaker dollar, which historically benefits Bitcoin. However, risk appetite is cooling: stablecoin growth has slowed, retail interest remains low, and quantum computing concerns continue to dampen Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative. Although the dollar’s 14-year bullish trend has broken—a positive long-term signal—Bitcoin’s price action remains weak, with rallies being met with selling. A more bullish outlook requires clearer technical and capital flow confirmations.

Matrixport02/03 07:27

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Support?

Matrixport02/03 07:27

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Will a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Support?

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin has entered a bear market territory, trading below its 21-week moving average, a key technical signal. While structural weakness persists, a weakening US dollar could become a potential support factor. The recent sell-off, particularly the flash crash on October 10, 2025, was largely driven by speculative retail traders rather than institutional players. Macro narratives around reflation remain, and a softer dollar historically supports Bitcoin. However, risk appetite is cooling, as stablecoin supply growth has slowed and retail interest remains subdued. Although the long-term dollar downtrend may eventually benefit Bitcoin, the current price structure remains weak, with rallies being met with selling pressure. A more constructive view is emerging, but a definitive bullish stance requires further confirmation from technical and capital flow indicators.

Matrixport02/03 07:21

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Will a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Support?

Matrixport02/03 07:21

‘We’re through the down cycle’ – Cathie Wood questions Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood suggests Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle of sharp rises and steep declines may no longer apply, asserting that the recent downturn has been the mildest yet and is likely over. Despite Bitcoin falling 11% in a week to around $77,777—erasing spring 2025 gains—Wood views the $80,000–$90,000 range as strong support. She notes the current 30% drop is modest compared to historical 70–80% declines, signaling a maturing market. Technical indicators are mixed, with bearish momentum but oversold RSI levels that often precede rebounds. Wood remains bullish long-term, projecting Bitcoin’s value could reach $16 trillion by 2030 as it increasingly competes with gold.

ambcrypto02/03 06:01

‘We’re through the down cycle’ – Cathie Wood questions Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle

ambcrypto02/03 06:01

Bitcoin trades below ETF cost basis as profitable supply falls to cycle lows

Bitcoin is trading below the average cost basis of U.S. spot ETF investors, estimated above $84,000, following significant weekly outflows. This has pushed many institutional and on-chain holders into unrealized losses. The supply of Bitcoin held in profit has dropped sharply to 11–12 million BTC, nearing cycle lows, down from 19–20 million BTC in August. The market shows signs of profit exhaustion, with reduced liquidity and muted rebound attempts. Recovery may depend on either reclaiming the ETF cost basis or a prolonged consolidation phase to rebuild profitability.

ambcrypto02/02 17:24

Bitcoin trades below ETF cost basis as profitable supply falls to cycle lows

ambcrypto02/02 17:24

Is Crypto Over? Don't Give Up, Liquidity Relief Is Coming

The article "Is Crypto Over? Don't Give Up, Liquidity is Coming" by Raoul Pal addresses the current downturn in the crypto market, arguing it is not a sign of the industry's demise but a temporary liquidity crisis. Pal refutes the narrative that crypto has permanently decoupled from other assets by showing that Bitcoin's price chart is nearly identical to that of the SaaS index, indicating a shared, external factor: a shortage of U.S. dollar liquidity. He explains this was caused by a combination of events, including the draining of the Reverse Repo facility, the rebuilding of the Treasury General Account (TGA) without monetary offset, and government shutdowns. This liquidity drain negatively impacted risk assets like crypto and tech stocks, while gold absorbed the marginal liquidity. The key takeaway is that this period of illiquidity is ending. The impending resolution of the U.S. government shutdown is seen as the final obstacle. Once cleared, a significant injection of liquidity is expected from sources like the easing of the SLR rule, TGA drawdowns, fiscal stimulus, and eventual rate cuts. Pal, alongside analysis from Stanley Druckenmiller, suggests the new Fed leadership under a potential Warsh chairmanship would be focused on cutting rates to keep the economy hot, aligning with a pro-growth strategy from the administration. The author admits a mistake in not prioritizing U.S. liquidity as the dominant short-term driver over global liquidity but remains highly bullish on the long-term cycle into 2026. The core advice for investors is patience, emphasizing that in a full cycle, time is more important than price. The message is clear: the liquidity cavalry is on its way.

marsbit02/02 03:40

Is Crypto Over? Don't Give Up, Liquidity Relief Is Coming

The article "False Narratives....and Other Thoughts" by Raoul Pal addresses the current downturn in the crypto market, arguing against the mainstream narrative that the crypto cycle is over. Pal explains that the recent price decline in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is not an isolated event but is correlated with a similar drop in SaaS stocks, as shown by comparative charts. He identifies the root cause as a temporary liquidity squeeze in the U.S. financial system, exacerbated by government shutdowns, TGA (Treasury General Account) rebuilding without monetary offset, and gold absorbing marginal liquidity that would otherwise support risk assets like crypto. Pal emphasizes that this liquidity crunch is temporary. He anticipates a resolution to the government shutdown soon, which will remove the last major obstacle to liquidity recovery. Following this, he expects a return of liquidity through measures such as eSLR adjustments, TGA drawdowns, fiscal stimulus, and eventual rate cuts. He advises investors to be patient, stressing that in a full market cycle, time is more critical than price movements. The article also corrects a misperception about potential Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, arguing he is not a hawk and would likely support rate cuts aligned with strategies to boost economic growth. Despite current market conditions, Pal remains highly optimistic about the crypto market's prospects through 2026, driven by anticipated pro-growth policies.

Odaily星球日报02/02 03:31

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Support?

After a recent correction, Bitcoin's price structure has weakened further, trading below the 21-week moving average—a technical signal of a bear market. Historically, Bitcoin tends to face downward pressure during U.S. mid-term election years and within its typical four-year cycle. However, with a weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing reflation narrative, risk assets may still find support. The October 10 flash crash marked a turning point, widening cross-asset pricing gaps and reducing short-term liquidity. Realized losses were largely concentrated among speculative retail investors, particularly on platforms like Hyperliquid, rather than institutional players. Macro conditions show dollar weakness, which has historically supported Bitcoin, and Trump's tolerance for a weaker dollar may sustain reflation trades. Yet, risk appetite is cooling: stablecoin supply growth has slowed, and retail interest remains low. Quantum computing concerns continue to weigh on Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative. While the dollar's 14-year uptrend has broken—a potential long-term support for Bitcoin—the current price structure remains weak, with rebounds often sold. The outlook is cautiously constructive but awaits stronger technical and capital flow signals before turning bullish.

marsbit02/01 11:18

Extreme Fear in Crypto Signals Potential Market Rebound

The crypto market is experiencing extreme fear, which analysts suggest could signal a potential bullish reversal. Despite recent volatility driven by macroeconomic pressures, underlying strength is visible through recovering Bitcoin ETF inflows and Ethereum network growth. On-chain data indicates a bottoming pattern, with reduced exchange inflows and steady accumulation by long-term holders. Market psychology shows that fear often peaks before recoveries, creating opportunities for contrarian traders. Institutional investment continues to grow, focusing on infrastructure rather than short-term price movements. While extreme fear doesn't guarantee an immediate rebound, it often marks a turning point where selling exhausts and new bull cycles begin.

TheNewsCrypto01/31 08:55

Extreme Fear in Crypto Signals Potential Market Rebound

TheNewsCrypto01/31 08:55

Why Do Bitcoin and Ethereum Fall But Not Rise?

This article analyzes why Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have underperformed other risk assets like stocks and commodities recently, despite a generally bullish macro environment. The core argument is that the underperformance is not primarily a macro issue, but a result of the crypto market's own structural dynamics and its ongoing deleveraging cycle. Key reasons identified include: - The crypto market is in the late stages of a deleveraging process, which began with a sharp sell-off in October, wiping out highly-leveraged speculative capital (especially from retail traders) and making the market fragile and risk-averse. - A significant amount of retail capital has been diverted to other booming assets like AI-related stocks and precious metals, which are experiencing their own FOMO-driven rallies. - Crypto markets remain structurally isolated from traditional finance (TradFi), with barriers to capital flow between them. - The market is still dominated by retail traders and passive funds (like ETFs), making it susceptible to emotional narratives, market micro-structure manipulation, and high volatility amplified by the use of high leverage (10x-20x) by散户. This creates an environment where concentrated selling in low-liquidity hours can trigger cascading liquidations. - The author draws historical parallels to the deleveraging of China's A-share market in 2015 and compares ETH's current price action to Tesla's in 2024, suggesting both are in a prolonged consolidation phase after a bubble. The article concludes that labeling BTC and ETH purely as "risk assets" is an oversimplification. While they are volatile, they also possess safe-haven qualities. The current sensitivity to negative news and sluggish response to positive developments is a temporary structural phenomenon of the deleveraging cycle, not a failure of their long-term value proposition. Once deleveraging concludes and new capital returns, this dynamic is expected to change.

marsbit01/30 04:44