# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Cycle

Why Bitcoin’s supply imbalance is hinting at more downside before recovery

Bitcoin has been in a bearish trend since October 2025, declining 46% from its all-time high of $126K. Large and mid-sized investors still hold 68% of the BTC supply, indicating that a broader distribution phase and structural market reset have not yet occurred. Short-term holders are likely to sell on any price bounce, as seen in the recent rejection at $76K. The UTXO Profit Count Percent further suggests market weakness, with its 365-day moving average at 87.5%—well above levels seen in previous cycle bottoms. Based on historical post-halving cycles, the market bottom is estimated to occur around late September to early October 2026, implying further potential downside before recovery.

ambcrypto04/02 07:11

Memory Module Prices Plummet, Memory Stocks Fall Collectively, Has the Memory Super Cycle Peaked?

Memory module prices have plummeted recently, with DDR5 kits in the U.S. seeing discounts of up to $110 and wholesale prices in China dropping sharply. This has triggered a significant sell-off in memory stocks, wiping nearly $100 billion from the sector's market value last week. Analysts are divided on whether this signals the end of the memory "super cycle." Some, like Dan Nystedt, argue that buyer resistance to high prices, especially for DDR4 in smartphones, indicates a classic cyclical peak. However, others, including independent analyst Jukan, contend that the current cycle is structurally different, driven by essential, inelastic demand for high-end DDR5 in AI and premium devices, with manufacturers now operating models that prevent reckless overcapacity expansion. Investment bank HSBC remains bullish, calling the recent sell-off an overreaction and stating that the AI-driven super cycle is only at its midpoint. It argues that efficiency technologies like Google's TurboQuant will accelerate, not hinder, AI adoption and demand, and it forecasts strong growth in AI server shipments and enterprise SSD demand through 2027. It views any price pullback as a buying opportunity.

marsbit03/30 07:29

Ethereum Price Is Running The Same Playbook That Led To 10,000% And 4,000% Surges In The Past

Ethereum price is holding above $2,000, showing resilience in bearish conditions. Analyst Merlijn The Trader identifies a recurring historical pattern in ETH's price chart that previously led to massive surges of 10,000% (2016-2018) and 4,000% (2018-2021). The pattern consists of three phases: consolidation, trendline retest, and parabolic rally. In the current cycle, ETH is consolidating in a $3,000-$4,000 range with a similar ascending trendline. The analyst suggests the cycle may be poised for another major breakout. If ETH holds above $2,000, a parabolic surge could follow; if not, a brief decline may occur before the anticipated rally.

bitcoinist03/27 18:32

How Is Bitcoin Price Following A 100-Year Pattern If It’s Only 16 Years Old? Expert Tells All

Crypto analyst Merlijn claims Bitcoin is following a 100-year-old pattern mapped by Jesse Livermore in the 1920s. According to this pattern, if Bitcoin holds above $70,000, it could rally to $170,000 by late 2026 or early 2027. A drop below $60,000, however, would extend the accumulation phase. Merlijn also suggests a potential final drop to $45,000 before a breakout to $140,000, unless BTC holds $65,000 and breaks its descending channel. Analyst Ali Martinez adds that if historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin is entering a final discount window between October 6-16, with a buy zone of $41,500-$45,500, potentially marking the start of a new 4-year bull cycle. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $70,600.

bitcoinist03/24 19:33

All Roads Lead Back To Bitcoin: Analyst Shares Something Crypto Investors Should Know

bitcoinist03/22 11:02

How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go? Analyst Shares Worst-Case Scenario

Historically, Bitcoin cycles show similarities in bull and bear markets, often involving an average crash of around 80%. Analyst Crypto Patel notes that following this trend could lead to a 77% decline, potentially pushing BTC to around $32,000. However, he believes such a drop is unlikely this cycle and instead expects Bitcoin not to fall below $40,000, making the $40,000–$50,000 range the maximum pain point for investors. Despite the 2024 deviation where Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before the halving, parts of the 4-year cycle remain consistent, with peaks occurring roughly every four years. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin may be entering a bear market, with another major crash expected before a bottom is reached. Following historical trends, the next all-time high could occur between 2028 and 2029.

bitcoinist03/20 17:01

Bitcoin Is Showing A Major Deviation From 2022, Analyst Says This Is A Different Foundation

A crypto analyst, DorkChicken, highlights a significant deviation in Bitcoin's current market structure compared to the 2022 cycle. The analysis indicates the present bull market is developing on a stronger foundation, with price forming multiple consolidation zones that act as robust support levels. This contrasts sharply with the 2022 crash, which occurred after BTC fell below $30,000 into an area with little historical support, leading to a deep selloff. The current structure suggests future corrections may be less severe. Furthermore, analyst 'Investor Jordan' asserts that bearish pressure is in its final stages following Bitcoin's recovery above $70,000 and a breakout from a key bull flag pattern. This breakout opens a path toward two short-term targets: filling the CME gap between $81,500 and $83,000, and a final push to reclaim the $84,000 level.

bitcoinist03/18 06:17

Is The Altcoin Market Dead? Why These Cryptocurrencies Have Failed To Move

The altcoin market has been a source of deep frustration for investors, failing to experience a sustained breakout despite numerous analyst predictions. According to crypto analyst Sykodelic, this stagnation is not due to the asset class being finished, but because the necessary macro backdrop for altcoin expansion never materialized. Altcoins are highly dependent on excess liquidity, performing best when money is loose, economic activity is strong, and investors are willing to move beyond Bitcoin. Sykodelic's analysis compares the OTHERS index (tracking cryptocurrencies outside the top ten) with two macro indicators: Federal Reserve Net Liquidity and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Historically, these three have moved in tandem. During the 2020/2021 cycle, all rose together, with the OTHERS index surging from below $100 billion to nearly $600 billion. However, in the current cycle, Fed Net Liquidity has oscillated without a clear trend, and the PMI spent 26 consecutive months in contraction until returning to expansion in January 2026. Consequently, the OTHERS index has chopped sideways. Now, conditions may be improving. Fed net liquidity appears to have bottomed and reversed upward, while the PMI has moved into expansion territory (registering 52.6% in January 2026). These changes could finally build the foundation for an altcoin season, with Sykodelic’s chart projecting a potential rise in the OTHERS index market cap to the $560 billion range.

bitcoinist03/17 02:02

Bitcoin Current Cycle Breaks Pattern As LTH-To-STH Supply Transfer Fails To Materialize

Bitcoin's current market cycle is breaking historical patterns as the typical large-scale supply transfer from Long-Term Holders (LTHs) to Short-Term Holders (STHs) has not materialized. Despite the price rebounding above $73,000, on-chain data shows LTHs still control about 79% of the supply, unlike previous cycles where their dominance decreased significantly during bull markets. Analyst Darkfost notes that supply shifts occurred in six waves, with sufficient liquidity allowing LTHs to find counterparties without drastic selling pressure. Additionally, increased speculation and institutional inflows via ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries are reshaping market dynamics, indicating stronger long-term confidence and a structural shift in Bitcoin’s holder composition.

bitcoinist03/16 18:39

Bitcoin Following The 2022 Cycle? What To Expect If It Plays Out The Same Way

The current Bitcoin market structure is showing similarities to the transition into the 2022 bear market, according to technical analysis. Following a cycle peak, Bitcoin has fallen below the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key indicator that historically signals a shift from bullish momentum to a broader downtrend. After this breakdown, a brief consolidation and relief rally occurred, but it failed to reclaim the lost level, mirroring the pattern from the previous cycle. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the 45 level, indicating weakening underlying market strength and echoing the momentum breakdown that preceded the prolonged 2022 decline. A descending trendline on the RSI has also capped multiple failed breakout attempts. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin could experience another significant downward leg before forming a definitive market bottom.

bitcoinist03/12 23:01