# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Analysis

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Analysis", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

How Can an Average Person Identify if a Token Has a Whale Behind It in 10 Minutes?

This article argues that identifying whether a token has a "whale" (a large, controlling holder) is the wrong question, as all successful tokens have them. The key is determining the whale's current phase: accumulation, markup (pumping), distribution (dumping), or having already exited. It provides a framework using on-chain and off-chain signals to identify these phases. Key on-chain metrics include: analyzing linked wallets to find true concentration, not just top holders; checking if trading volume is real or fake based on volume/holder ratio; monitoring DEX liquidity pool changes; analyzing trade volume concentration and net buy volume; and comparing price action to holder growth rates to pinpoint the whale's phase. The core thesis is that whales are not a bug but a fundamental feature of the market; concentrated筹码 (chips/tokens) and capital are prerequisites for a pump. The structural disadvantage for retail is being "long-only"—entering at high prices with no safety net, making them vulnerable. The article proposes that decentralized shorting mechanisms could be a solution, allowing retail to profit from correctly identifying distribution phases and breaking the whale's monopoly on price control. However, shorting carries extreme risks like unlimited losses and being squeezed. It is framed not as a guarantee of profits but as a necessary tool for "symmetrical armament," allowing retail to participate in two-way betting and transition from being "prey" to a "hunter" on the playing field.

marsbit04/09 02:11

How Can an Average Person Identify if a Token Has a Whale Behind It in 10 Minutes?

marsbit04/09 02:11

Ethena rallies 14.5% in a day, but THIS will limit further gains

Ethena (ENA) rallied 14.6% in 24 hours, extending gains from earlier in the week, partly driven by a broader crypto market boost following former President Trump's ceasefire announcement. The project's plan to diversify its USDe stablecoin reserves into non-crypto assets has also contributed to positive momentum, aiming to address declining yields and supply since the October 2025 market downturn. Despite the recent surge, ENA's overall trend remains bearish. Technical analysis on the 1-day chart shows lower highs, with the RSI below 50 and declining OBV, indicating sustained selling pressure. The price has struggled to break the key $0.095-$0.10 resistance zone, where a cluster of short liquidations is located. The 4-hour chart structure is also bearish, and a break above $0.095 is needed to shift momentum bullishly. Traders are advised to consider taking profits near current levels, as the relief rally may be over, and a downward move could follow. The resistance band remains a significant barrier to further gains.

ambcrypto04/09 01:32

Ethena rallies 14.5% in a day, but THIS will limit further gains

ambcrypto04/09 01:32

Ethereum To Follow Netflix’s Trajectory? Expert Breaks Down Some Interesting Similarities

Ethereum's current price structure is being compared to Netflix's stock performance between 2003 and 2009 by analyst Crypto Tice. The analysis highlights a similar pattern of prolonged consolidation, with both assets experiencing multiple rejections at a key resistance level—Ethereum near $4,900 and Netflix in its historical range. This repeated testing of range boundaries, now in its sixth interaction for Ethereum, suggests building pressure that historically preceded a major breakout for Netflix. For Ethereum to follow a similar trajectory, it must decisively break above resistance levels at $2,150, $2,350, $3,100, $3,900, and finally $4,900. Critics note fundamental differences, such as Netflix's consolidation occurring during business expansion with growing subscribers and revenue, while Ethereum faces unique challenges like reduced base-layer activity due to Layer 2 networks.

bitcoinist04/08 20:02

Ethereum To Follow Netflix’s Trajectory? Expert Breaks Down Some Interesting Similarities

bitcoinist04/08 20:02

Bitcoin Just Reached A Critical Point In The Cycle, And Here’s What To Watch Out For

Bitcoin is approaching a critical phase in its market cycle, as indicated by the Accumulation Distribution Cycle Index (ADCI). This macro-level tool, developed by @arch_physicist and used by Alphractal, categorizes Bitcoin’s market behavior into three ranges: accumulation (0-30), trending (30-70), and distribution (70-100). The ADCI suggests Bitcoin may be entering the distribution zone, where the risk of larger holders offloading supply increases. Unlike past cycles that ended with sharp tops and corrections, distribution in the current mature market may occur more slowly—marked by sideways movement, weakening rallies, and exhaustion in momentum. Investors should monitor structural signals like the index's climb alongside slowing price action, rather than short-term spikes, to gauge whether the cycle transition is underway.

bitcoinist04/08 15:32

Bitcoin Just Reached A Critical Point In The Cycle, And Here’s What To Watch Out For

bitcoinist04/08 15:32

Bitcoin PMI Says This Is Not A Peak, Here’s What It Is

Bitcoin's price action has divided, with some calling a cycle peak and others expecting further rallies. A key macroeconomic indicator, the Bitcoin PMI, suggests the current phase is not the top. Historically, Bitcoin has never formed a true all-time high when the PMI was below 50. Each previous cycle peak occurred only after the PMI entered expansion territory above 50. Despite strong rallies and new highs in late 2025, the PMI remained sub-50, creating a disconnect with price action. Analysts argue that calling the top now is premature, similar to mistakes made in 2019-2020. This period may instead be a prolonged accumulation phase, with the real cycle peak likely occurring only after PMI surpasses 50.

bitcoinist04/08 05:01

Bitcoin PMI Says This Is Not A Peak, Here’s What It Is

bitcoinist04/08 05:01

Polymarket: 84% of Traders Are Losing Money, 0.033% of People Take the Majority of Profits

A recent analysis of 2.5 million Polymarket wallet addresses by on-chain researcher Andrey Sergeenkov reveals that 84.1% of traders are losing money, with only 16% achieving any profit. A mere 2% of addresses have accumulated over $1,000 in profits, while just 0.033% (840 addresses) have earned more than $100,000. The study, which improved on prior methodologies by accounting for token splits and mergers, shows a significant increase in unprofitable traders compared to a previous 70% estimate. Profit concentration is extreme: only 1.25% of addresses make over $1,000 monthly, 0.26% earn above $5,000, and just 0.13% surpass $10,000. Most high-earning addresses are short-lived, with 53% of top traders active for only one month. Research indicates that automated strategies—such as arbitrage bots and high-frequency trading systems—dominate profits, exploiting public on-chain data and speed advantages that manual retail traders lack. Despite Polymarket’s accuracy in prediction (94% a month before outcomes), the platform exhibits a stark wealth disparity, raising questions about its function as an information aggregator versus a zero-sum game favoring sophisticated players.

marsbit04/08 03:49

Polymarket: 84% of Traders Are Losing Money, 0.033% of People Take the Majority of Profits

marsbit04/08 03:49

Here’s Why The Dogecoin Price Could See Big Gains Soon

Crypto analyst KrissPax presents a bullish case for Dogecoin (DOGE), suggesting it could soon see significant gains despite its current struggle to reclaim the $0.10 level. He notes the price has been consolidating in a symmetrical triangle for two months with strong support at $0.09. With low market sentiment and trading volume, he anticipates a potential big move, though it could be volatile. Other analysts echo this sentiment. CW indicates DOGE is nearing the end of a descending channel, and a breakout could signal a trend reversal this week. Conversely, The Composite Trader warns the initial big move could be a fakeout to the downside after 60 days of price compression. Analyst Kevin Capital suggests the bear market for DOGE is in its latter stages, supported by momentum and on-chain data, advising a shift to an "opportunity hunter" mindset. A potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire could also contribute to a rebound. At the time of writing, DOGE is trading around $0.09061, down over 2% in 24 hours.

bitcoinist04/07 23:02

Here’s Why The Dogecoin Price Could See Big Gains Soon

bitcoinist04/07 23:02

Bitcoin Peak At $300,757? Pundit Runs Down The Scenario That Will Lead There

A market analyst suggests Bitcoin could reach approximately $300,757 by April 2028, even without a full bull market rally, based on a long-term ascending price channel that has historically guided its broader trend. This channel has a lower boundary near $106,712 and an upper extreme around $973,197, with a critical midline resistance at $300,757. According to the analysis, Bitcoin's current position implies that a steady upward trend—without parabolic surges—could gradually push the price toward this midpoint. Only a decisive break above this level would signal the start of a full bull market phase. The model emphasizes structural momentum rather than short-term euphoria.

bitcoinist04/07 20:01

Bitcoin Peak At $300,757? Pundit Runs Down The Scenario That Will Lead There

bitcoinist04/07 20:01

Analyst warns of $10K Bitcoin scenario — but charts show a different story

Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warns of a potential Bitcoin decline to $10,000 amid a broader risk-asset downturn, drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis. He predicts a 50% S&P 500 drop, gold rising to $4,000, and oil falling to $40 per barrel, arguing Bitcoin remains vulnerable to tightening liquidity. However, current market data tells a different story. Bitcoin is consolidating between $64,000 and $72,000 after a recent correction, showing stabilization rather than breakdown. Key support levels hold, and the RSI indicates neutral momentum without sustained bearish pressure. Broader market volatility, while elevated, lacks the persistent instability of past crises. The analysis concludes that while a macro risk-off event could pressure Bitcoin, the current market structure does not support an imminent drop to $10,000, suggesting a more complex dynamic than direct correlation with traditional risk assets.

ambcrypto04/07 17:02

Analyst warns of $10K Bitcoin scenario — but charts show a different story

ambcrypto04/07 17:02

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