"RBC-Crypto" does not provide investment advice; the material is published for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that may lead to financial losses.
Asset management company VanEck has presented three scenarios for the price of Bitcoin through 2050. According to their model, the main driver for the leading cryptocurrency will be the growth of the money supply and, consequently, the devaluation of national currencies. The report outlines three main scenarios with a price range from $130,000 to $53.4 million.
VanEck considers the main risk to Bitcoin's price growth not to be volatility, but regulatory restrictions that could slow its integration into the financial system. Experts recommend allocating 1-3% of a portfolio to Bitcoin for diversification, and up to 20% for investors with a high risk tolerance.
VanEck built three possible scenarios for Bitcoin by 2050, based on the depth of Bitcoin's penetration into the global economy:
Base Scenario
Target of $2.9 million per Bitcoin. This is VanEck's primary working hypothesis. It assumes Bitcoin will capture 5-10% of global trade and account for about 5% of the economies of some countries.
As of January 9, the price of Bitcoin is at $90,500. Under the "base" scenario, the growth would be over 3200% from current levels.
Bear Scenario
Target of $130,000 per Bitcoin. A stagnation scenario where mass institutional adoption does not occur, according to experts. Bitcoin remains a niche digital asset with no significant role in global finance.
Bull Scenario
Target of $53.4 million per Bitcoin. The most aggressive forecast, where Bitcoin captures 20% of global trade and 10% of global GDP, becoming a competitor or even a successor to gold. In this case, it would account for almost 30% of the volume of global financial assets.
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