Within just a year, Cardano [ADA] has erased all of its +300% gains made during the 2024 U.S election rally. The late 2025 market rout dragged the altcoin back to the $0.32-$0.36 support – A level that triggered the 2024 run.
Can ADA bulls pull another surprise run from the level again?
Is ADA’s bottom in?
Since mid-December, ADA’s price action has demonstrated resilience while flashing signs of a potential reversal based on technical indicators.
As ADA’s price printed new lows in November and December, the daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) formed higher lows, signaling a bullish divergence.
Additionally, it flashed a MACD golden cross, with the same coinciding with the post-Christmas 10% rally. In fact, the altcoin climbed from $0.34 to $0.37 – A 10% upswing that could extend if the support level is defended.
Taken together, the indicators revealed that the uptrend momentum could extend itself. However, the real near-term test for bulls will be reclaiming the 50-day Moving Average (MA, white) at $0.42.
If reclaimed, the next upside target will be the former 2025 support of $0.50.
The 1-month liquidation heatmap also supported the aforementioned thesis. There were upside liquidity pools at $0.39 and $0.42, aligning with the 50-day MA. On the lower side, leveraged longs were at $0.34, marking out these levels as potential price magnets in the near term.
Is it time to buy ADA?
Another bullish sign for long-term investors or holders was the fear and distress that 3-month holders and those who held the token for over a year experienced, as indicated by the MVRV ratio.
For example, 3-month holders (MVRV Ratio 90D) had a 25% decline, while annual holders incurred unrealized losses of 38%.
Put differently, they were underwater, so they may hold on until they break even or turn a little profit before offloading their bags.
As such, with most holders now holding the token at a loss, there is little selling pressure at press time levels. That would offer a buying opportunity.
However, a break below the $0.32-$0.36 support level would invalidate the recovery thesis and likely pull ADA lower to the 2023 low of $0.24.
Final Thoughts
- ADA dropped to a support level that triggered 2024’s rally, with technical indicators flashing reversal signals.
- Valuation metrics and liquidation levels also indicated potential recovery, but a decline below $0.32 would dent bullish hopes.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion
