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Deciphering Messari's 100,000-Word Annual Report (Part 2): ETH Underperforms BTC—Marginalization or Pricing Dilemma?

Analysis of Messari's 2025 Annual Report: Why ETH Underperformed BTC ETH's underperformance against BTC in 2025 is not a sign of its marginalization but rather a reflection of its complex and evolving pricing logic. While BTC thrives on a singular narrative as a macro hedge and institutional asset, ETH serves multiple roles: a decentralized settlement layer, DeFi infrastructure, and a production network with ongoing upgrades. Key data shows Ethereum's usage grew significantly in stablecoins, RWA, and institutional settlements, often occurring on L2s rather than L1. This shift reduced direct fee revenue for ETH, weakening its value capture despite increased network utility. Competition from chains like Solana and Hyperliquid further pressured L1 fee income, but Ethereum remained the dominant settlement layer for high-value, institutional-grade activity. ETH's asset narrative remains tied to BTC's macro momentum. While ETH ETF flows eventually improved, its monetary premium is still derivative of BTC's consensus. The core issue is structural: Ethereum is becoming essential global financial infrastructure, but ETH's value relies more on abstract security premiums and macro risk sentiment than direct cash flows. In conclusion, ETH is not being replaced. It operates as the financial operating system built atop BTC's monetary anchor—critically important, yet not yet independently priced.

marsbit12/29 07:02

Deciphering Messari's 100,000-Word Annual Report (Part 2): ETH Underperforms BTC—Marginalization or Pricing Dilemma?

marsbit12/29 07:02

BTC Price Jumps Near Year-End, 2026 Likely to Build on it

Bitcoin's price has surged near the end of the year, breaking the $90,000 mark and reaching $90,023.28 in the last 24 hours—a 2.74% increase. This upward movement comes after a period of struggle between $87,000 and $88,000, with market cap rising to over $1.79 trillion. Despite generally bearish sentiment and a low Fear & Greed Index, BTC is expected to maintain this bullish momentum into 2026. Predictions indicate a 3.55% rise in one month and nearly 17% in three months, potentially reaching around $103,282. By the end of 2026, Bitcoin is forecasted to reclaim its all-time high of $126,198.07, last seen in October 2025, and possibly aim for $150,000 depending on macroeconomic conditions. Michael Saylor’s recent comments have fueled speculation, though thorough research is advised before investing.

TheNewsCrypto12/29 07:00

BTC Price Jumps Near Year-End, 2026 Likely to Build on it

TheNewsCrypto12/29 07:00

2025 Crypto ETF Annual Review: Wall Street Bids Farewell to Wait-and-See, Regulatory Green Light Opens Multi-Asset Era

2025 Crypto ETF Year in Review: Wall Street Embraces Digital Assets as Regulatory Green Light Unlocks Multi-Asset Era The U.S. SEC's new regulatory approach in 2025 opened the door for a wave of cryptocurrency ETFs on Wall Street. Following the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which saw massive net inflows of $57.7 billion and $12.6 billion respectively, the focus shifted to a broader range of assets. A pivotal change was the SEC's September approval of a universal listing standard for commodity-based trust shares. This new framework, which requires assets to trade on regulated markets with a six-month futures history, cleared the path for dozens of new crypto ETFs without needing individual asset approvals. Subsequently, the first spot XRP and Solana ETFs launched, attracting significant investor interest with net inflows of $883 million and $92 million. These products, some offering staking rewards, demonstrated strong demand for assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Looking ahead, the market is poised for a shift from retail to institutional adoption. Major firms like Vanguard and Bank of America are beginning to offer crypto ETF access to clients. Analysts predict that multi-asset crypto index ETFs will gain prominence, allowing professional investors to gain diversified exposure without deep knowledge of individual tokens. This institutional involvement is expected to reduce volatility and enhance the long-term sustainability of the crypto market.

marsbit12/29 06:26

2025 Crypto ETF Annual Review: Wall Street Bids Farewell to Wait-and-See, Regulatory Green Light Opens Multi-Asset Era

marsbit12/29 06:26

Rally Charging Ahead or Hitting a Wall? BNB Bulls Face a Key Test

Amid a broader crypto market surge of 2.52%, BNB has gained over 3.21%, rising from a low of $841.03 to a high of $869.40. Currently trading around $868, its market cap stands at $119.23 billion, with a 36.87% increase in daily trading volume reaching $2.1 billion. The key resistance level is near $870.91; a breakout could push prices toward $872.65, while a reversal might test support at $866.33. Technical analysis shows bullish signals: the MACD is above the signal line, the CMF indicates positive money flow, and the RSI at 70.29 suggests strong momentum—though it may be overbought. Bullish dominance is reinforced by a Bull Bear Power reading of 30.46.

TheNewsCrypto12/29 06:19

Rally Charging Ahead or Hitting a Wall? BNB Bulls Face a Key Test

TheNewsCrypto12/29 06:19

Santa Didn’t Come For Bitcoin ETFs: $782 Million Walks Out The Door

Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows of approximately $782 million during the Christmas week, reducing total net assets to around $113.5 billion. The outflows were led by major funds including BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. Despite the withdrawals, Bitcoin price remained near $87,000. Market analysts attribute part of the decline to seasonal factors and reduced liquidity during the holidays, but data shows a broader trend of institutional outflows since early November. Meanwhile, gold and silver rallied, drawing some investment away from crypto. The divergence suggests a potential shift in institutional risk allocation, though flows may recover in early 2026 if monetary easing expectations strengthen and market conditions normalize.

bitcoinist12/29 06:13

Santa Didn’t Come For Bitcoin ETFs: $782 Million Walks Out The Door

bitcoinist12/29 06:13

The Man Who Struck a Chord with America's Social Sentiment Has Launched a Token

A man named Nick Shirley has become a viral sensation in the U.S. after releasing investigative videos exposing alleged fraud and corruption in Minnesota's daycare system. His footage, viewed hundreds of millions of times, showed a seemingly non-operational daycare that received $1.9 million in tax-free funding despite misspelling "learning" as "learing." The story attracted attention from high-profile figures like Vice President Vance and Elon Musk. Capitalizing on the momentum, Shirley launched his own creator token, $thenickshirley, on Base via Zora, earning over $41,000 in royalties. The incident also sparked meme token activity, including a token based on the misspelling "learing." Shirley has since openly shared his Venmo and crypto addresses for donations. This event is seen as a real-world experiment in creator monetization via blockchain—demonstrating how public influence can be directly converted into value through decentralized platforms, potentially signaling a new model for media and content economy.

Odaily星球日报12/29 06:08

The Man Who Struck a Chord with America's Social Sentiment Has Launched a Token

Odaily星球日报12/29 06:08

2025 Crypto Wallet Undercover Battle: Is Competing to Integrate Hyperliquid a Good Business?

In 2025, the crypto wallet sector is witnessing a quiet battle as major players like MetaMask, Phantom, and Bitget rush to integrate Hyperliquid's perpetual trading capabilities. This trend is driven by Hyperliquid's innovative Builder Fee and Referral mechanism, which allows third-party platforms to earn commissions by routing user trades. However, the integration is complex, with varying approaches: some wallets use Hyperliquid's open API for quick setup, while others deploy read-only nodes for better performance but higher costs. Despite initial hype and significant referral payouts (e.g., Phantom earned substantially more than MetaMask), the long-term viability is questionable. Hyperliquid's user base is highly concentrated, with a small number of whales generating most trading volume, making it challenging for integrated wallets to attract and retain meaningful users. Additionally, technical hurdles like rate limiting, data consistency issues, and high infrastructure costs further dampen prospects. While integration offers short-term ecosystem expansion, it may not be a profitable strategy long-term. Many wallets might eventually pivot to developing their own perpetual trading solutions or aggregating multiple protocols to capture real value beyond mere commission splits.

marsbit12/29 06:06

2025 Crypto Wallet Undercover Battle: Is Competing to Integrate Hyperliquid a Good Business?

marsbit12/29 06:06

If Quitting Smoking Could Earn You Coins: Vape-to-Earn is Testing a New Health Economy

This article introduces Whiffin, a Web3 project exploring "Vape-to-Earn" (V2E), a new model that incentivizes reduced nicotine use instead of promoting consumption. Unlike traditional e-cigarette companies that optimize for user addiction, Whiffin uses hardware sensors to track usage patterns—such as inhalation frequency and duration—and rewards users with on-chain tokens when they reduce consumption. The system employs AI to analyze behavioral data, predict usage triggers, and offer personalized reduction plans. Anonymized, aggregated user data also holds value for public health research, policy-making, and medical studies. By aligning economic incentives with health outcomes, Whiffin aims to pioneer "HealthFi," a potential trillion-dollar niche that uses blockchain to reward real-world behavioral improvement.

深潮12/29 06:02

If Quitting Smoking Could Earn You Coins: Vape-to-Earn is Testing a New Health Economy

深潮12/29 06:02

Monero – Why XMR buyers should wait for this potential opportunity

Monero (XMR) experienced a 7% rally during the Christmas period, rising from $432 to over $460, partly due to a slight decline in Bitcoin dominance. However, the bounce was accompanied by low liquidity and trading volume, making it vulnerable to a reversal. A potential buying opportunity may arise if XMR retests the $400–$420 support zone, which aligns with the 50-day Moving Average—a level that has historically acted as a rebound point. The MACD indicator is nearing a Death Cross, which could push the price toward this support area. A bounce from this level could target $470, representing a potential 15% gain. While the futures market shows no signs of overheating, broader market sentiment remains negative. A shift to positive sentiment could support a stronger recovery. A break below the 50-day MA would invalidate this outlook.

ambcrypto12/29 06:01

Monero – Why XMR buyers should wait for this potential opportunity

ambcrypto12/29 06:01

Bitcoin is About to Choose a Direction, How to Respond Flexibly | Invited Analysis

Bitcoin is approaching a critical directional decision after an extended period of consolidation. Since reaching its all-time high of $126,200 in October, BTC has been in a confirmed medium-term downtrend, with a maximum drawdown of approximately 36% over 82 days. Technical indicators suggest the market is in an oversold area, and a directional breakout is imminent. Last week’s price action validated the analyst’s core view of wide-range oscillation between key levels. Two short-term trades were executed within the defined resistance zone of $89,500–$91,000, yielding a total return of 3.62%. The current analysis suggests that, in the absence of sudden news, a likely scenario involves a final downward move breaking the $80,000 psychological support to flush out remaining long positions before a potential reversal and technical rebound. This week (Dec 29–Jan 4), the market is expected to test the $86,000–$86,500 support region. A break below could lead to a decline toward $83,500–$84,500, while holding may extend the current consolidation. Two short-term trading plans are proposed based on whether this support holds or breaks, using 30% position sizing with strict stop-loss and trailing stop protocols. Key macro events this week include the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and US jobless claims data, which may influence medium-term interest rate expectations and market liquidity sentiment.

marsbit12/29 05:39

Bitcoin is About to Choose a Direction, How to Respond Flexibly | Invited Analysis

marsbit12/29 05:39

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