2026-06-09 Вторник

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Data Estimates Show Polymarket's Annual Revenue Could Easily Exceed 100 Million, Under the Assumption That...

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has begun charging fees on its "15-minute crypto up/down" markets since January 6, with a variable rate structure where fees are higher when odds are near 50% (up to 1.56%) and lower near 0% or 100%. After three weeks of implementation, data shows the platform has accumulated approximately $2.19 million in fee revenue, averaging about $730,000 per week. This translates to a projected annual revenue of around $38 million if current trading activity remains stable. The platform is expected to extend this fee model to other markets beyond crypto price movements. Analysis of the past week’s trading volume shows that the "15-minute crypto up/down" segment accounted for $159 million, or about 9.1% of Polymarket’s total weekly volume of $1.75 billion. If similar fees were applied across all markets, the platform revenue could theoretically reach around $418 million annually. It is important to note that these are estimates based on limited data and current trading behavior. Actual revenue may vary due to factors such as future growth, potential adjustments to fee structures, and differences in user activity across market types. Nevertheless, the move demonstrates Polymarket’s transition toward a sustainable revenue model, with significant growth potential ahead, especially with major events like the 2026 World Cup and U.S. midterm elections likely to drive further engagement.

marsbit01/28 11:43

Data Estimates Show Polymarket's Annual Revenue Could Easily Exceed 100 Million, Under the Assumption That...

marsbit01/28 11:43

The Eve of the Storm: Powell Holds Rates, Trump Announces New Fed Chair?

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady in its first policy decision of 2026, with markets pricing in a near-100% probability of no change. While this outcome is largely anticipated, the focus has shifted to future policy direction and the potential announcement of a new Fed Chair by former President Trump. Key uncertainties remain regarding the pace of potential rate cuts in 2026. Although the Fed began a rate-cutting cycle in late 2025 due to a softening labor market, persistent inflation at 2.8%—above the 2% target—has led to a more cautious stance. The composition of the voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has also shifted, with two new "hawkish" regional bank presidents joining, which may influence future decisions. Chair Powell’s post-meeting remarks will be closely watched for signals on the duration of the pause and the likelihood of further easing. Simultaneously, Trump has indicated he may soon nominate a new Fed Chair, with candidates narrowed down to four individuals. Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income and a proponent of lower rates, is currently the betting favorite. Trump may choose to announce his nominee around the time of the FOMC meeting to shift market attention away from any potentially hawkish signals from Powell and instead emphasize a more dovish long-term outlook. The timing and choice of nominee could significantly influence market sentiment and expectations for monetary policy.

Odaily星球日报01/28 11:33

The Eve of the Storm: Powell Holds Rates, Trump Announces New Fed Chair?

Odaily星球日报01/28 11:33

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