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After Polymarket and Kalshi, Are There Any Dark Horses Left in the Prediction Market?

The prediction market, once a niche crypto experiment, has evolved into a mainstream financial and information market, moving beyond a sole reliance on political events. The 2024 US election showcased platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, but sustained post-election volume from sports, tech, and economics proved long-term demand. By 2026, a duopoly controls ~97.5% of volume: Polymarket leverages on-chain trading, USDC settlement, and media integrations, while Kalshi uses CFTC compliance to access mainstream finance via partners like Robinhood. New challengers are emerging in specific niches: short-cycle trading (@trylimitless), media-native markets (@MyriadMarkets), social platform integration (@kash_bot), and infrastructure layers (@azuroprotocol, @theclearingco). Key 2026 drivers include AI agents executing over 30% of on-chain trades, media platforms embedding odds as engaging content, and sports becoming the dominant sustained vertical. Core challenges remain: contested volume metrics, state-level regulatory friction classifying markets as gambling, and token airdrop speculation inflating activity. The future lies not with generic clones, but with platforms possessing deep vertical focus, clear distribution advantages, and viable regulatory or on-chain liquidity strategies.

marsbit05/21 09:14

After Polymarket and Kalshi, Are There Any Dark Horses Left in the Prediction Market?

marsbit05/21 09:14

Tracking Digital Asset Markets Beyond Crypto-Native Venues

Glassnode has expanded its analytics platform to track digital asset markets beyond crypto-native venues. New data includes daily price and volume for U.S. spot ETFs and publicly-listed digital asset treasury (DAT) companies. This allows users to compare the behavior of these listed equities against underlying crypto assets, assessing which stocks act as strong proxies. ETF trading volume data provides insights into institutional participation and liquidity, helping to distinguish genuine market trends from thin, speculative moves. These new metrics offer a unified view of crypto exposure through traditional finance instruments, bridging the gap between on-chain and traditional market data.

insights.glassnode05/21 09:12

Tracking Digital Asset Markets Beyond Crypto-Native Venues

insights.glassnode05/21 09:12

New Paradigms and Investment Logic in the Era of AI+Web3

In the era of AI+Web3, a venture capital firm shares insights from reviewing numerous projects. The AI industry is seen as still early-stage, structured in a "seven-layer matrix" from power infrastructure to AI agents. Investment timing is crucial, especially in cyclical sectors like AI data centers. The integration of AI and Crypto is deemed essential for two reasons: 1) AI agents require "financial sovereignty" for micro, high-frequency, machine-to-machine transactions, and 2) blockchain provides trust and auditability to address AI "hallucinations" and ensure transparency. The core investment principle is "honesty." Teams must be genuine, not hastily assembled, and products must be substantiated by real metrics, not just flashy demos. Projects built on honesty are valued for long-term success over short-term hype. Looking ahead, the most underestimated opportunity for 2026 is the deep fusion of AI, blockchain, and entertainment. While most investment focuses on B2B infrastructure like payments and decentralized computing (DePIN), the future lies in consumer applications. As AI automates most human labor, society will shift towards leisure, creating massive demand for high-quality entertainment. AI can power immersive experiences (e.g., NPCs with autonomous consciousness in games), while blockchain secures digital ownership and economic systems. This convergence could unlock tremendous value in user time and capital within virtual worlds. *Disclaimer: The content represents the author's views for discussion only and does not constitute investment advice.*

marsbit05/21 08:56

New Paradigms and Investment Logic in the Era of AI+Web3

marsbit05/21 08:56

A Robotic Version of MicroStrategy Has Arrived! Can Ordinary People Invest in Giants in the Robotics Sector?

Andrew Kang, a prominent former crypto investor, has shifted his focus to AI and robotics, taking on the role of CEO at RoboStrategy. This publicly traded closed-end fund, inspired by MicroStrategy's capital model, aims to give retail investors access to early-stage robotics investments, a sector traditionally dominated by institutional capital. RoboStrategy recently listed on NASDAQ under the ticker "BOT" and secured a $2 billion equity financing commitment. Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, began investing in robotics two years ago, with a notable early investment in Figure AI. RoboStrategy's portfolio now includes several robotics companies across hardware and software. The fund differentiates itself through permanent capital, a team of industry experts, and strong marketing capabilities. Its core strategy, termed R.I.S.E., involves raising capital when its share price trades at a premium to Net Asset Value (NAV), investing in high-conviction private robotics companies, scaling those investments, and using the resulting NAV growth to attract further capital—creating a potential flywheel effect. However, risks include its current high share price premium over NAV, the subjective valuation and illiquidity of its private holdings, and the inherent volatility of a closed-end fund structure.

marsbit05/21 08:25

A Robotic Version of MicroStrategy Has Arrived! Can Ordinary People Invest in Giants in the Robotics Sector?

marsbit05/21 08:25

Fantasy's Closing Notes: After Two and a Half Years of Trial and Error in SocialFi, What Have We Learned?

"Fantasy Shutdown Notes: Two and a Half Years of SocialFi Trial, What Have We Learned?" Fantasy, a SocialFi/crypto card game, is shutting down. The team is refunding 100% of investments to angel/seed round backers, as operational costs were fully covered by revenue. Over 2.5 years, the project returned approximately $20M to its community. The core reason for failure was building crypto economics on a foundation not designed for it. Traditional card games (Magic, Pokémon) succeed by prioritizing gameplay; financial value is a secondary outcome. Crypto card games invert this, attracting speculators first, not genuine players. This financialization trapped the team into managing a financial instrument instead of developing a game. This is a sector-wide issue. Embedding tokenomics into social products or creator-fan relationships often attracts short-term traders over genuine users, undermining the core value. The article also critiques premature token launches. Most tokens fail because they're issued before product-market fit is proven, diverting team and community focus to price speculation instead of building. Successful examples like Hyperliquid or Jupiter built sustainable businesses first. Fantasy's journey highlights key crypto pitfalls: the distorting effect of upfront financialization in gaming/social apps, and the dangers of launching tokens too early. The team hopes sharing these lessons helps future builders avoid the same traps.

marsbit05/21 08:13

Fantasy's Closing Notes: After Two and a Half Years of Trial and Error in SocialFi, What Have We Learned?

marsbit05/21 08:13

5 AI Tokens Attracting Sustained Capital During Market Uncertainty — Ozak AI Ranks First With Over $7 Million Raised

Despite market uncertainty, investors are increasingly turning to AI-based tokens, with Ozak AI (OZ) leading as the top choice due to over $7 million raised in its presale. Priced at $0.014 in its seventh presale phase, the token has seen 14x growth from its initial $0.001. Analysts target a $1 price, supported by its unique predictive AI infrastructure that merges blockchain data with advanced models like Temporal Fusion Transformer for market forecasts. Ozak AI’s partnerships with Zeni and Echobit aim to enhance Web3 accessibility and trading. Other notable AI tokens include Bittensor (TAO) for decentralized AI training, Numeraire (NMR) for crowd-sourced hedge fund strategies, Cortex (CTXC) for on-chain AI execution, and SingularityNET (AGIX) as a decentralized AI marketplace. Ozak AI stands out for its strong capital inflow and real-world utility, positioning it as a key signal in the AI crypto sector.

TheNewsCrypto05/21 08:10

5 AI Tokens Attracting Sustained Capital During Market Uncertainty — Ozak AI Ranks First With Over $7 Million Raised

TheNewsCrypto05/21 08:10

$67 Billion! AI Boom Fuels Largest Energy Merger in U.S. History

In a landmark deal, NextEra Energy announced a $67 billion acquisition of Dominion Energy on May 18, 2026, marking the largest U.S. utility merger. The primary driver is the insatiable power demand from AI data centers, concentrated in Virginia's "Data Center Alley," where Dominion is the key supplier holding over 51 GW of data center contracts. This acquisition highlights a fundamental shift. While global electricity demand grew 3% in 2025, data center demand surged 17%, driven by AI. This strain is causing irreversible price spikes, like the 76% increase in the PJM grid, and grid instability, as seen in a 2025 Virginia incident where 60 data centers disconnected simultaneously. NextEra, a major renewable energy provider, bets that combining its clean power and storage expertise with Dominion's strategic access to data centers will be transformative. However, the deal raises critical questions about cost distribution. Analysts warn that up to $700 billion in infrastructure costs may be passed to residential consumers through higher bills, creating a disparity where private AI profits rely on publicly subsidized grid upgrades. This merger signals just the beginning of AI's profound reshaping of the energy landscape.

marsbit05/21 08:07

$67 Billion! AI Boom Fuels Largest Energy Merger in U.S. History

marsbit05/21 08:07

Two Companies Capture 90% of AI Startup's $80 Billion ARR

The AI startup landscape is highly concentrated, with OpenAI and Anthropic capturing 89% of an estimated $80 billion in annualized revenue among 34 leading companies. OpenAI, with $24-25B in revenue, primarily drives growth through ChatGPT's consumer subscriptions, while Anthropic, exceeding $30B, focuses on enterprise API integration and has rapidly grown its U.S. enterprise market share from under 1% to 34.4% in under two years. The remaining 32 companies share just 11% of the revenue, facing intense pressure as resources, talent, and market attention consolidate around the two giants. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle where higher revenue fuels greater compute investment and model improvement. Despite their dominance, both leaders face challenges. OpenAI is navigating significant legal disputes and partnership tensions, while Anthropic operates under the high expectations of its massive backers like Amazon. Historical parallels in tech infrastructure (e.g., search engines, mobile OS) suggest such oligopolistic tendencies are common due to scale, network effects, and high switching costs, indicating the market could become even more concentrated. However, the rapid pace of AI innovation leaves room for disruption. For other players, the strategic path forward is not direct competition with the giants but specialization in vertical domains where general-purpose models fall short—such as legal, medical, or industrial applications—building indispensable, niche solutions.

marsbit05/21 08:05

Two Companies Capture 90% of AI Startup's $80 Billion ARR

marsbit05/21 08:05

What Does the Top AI Influencer Karpathy Seek by Joining Anthropic?

AI pioneer Andrej Karpathy, a founding member of OpenAI, has joined AI safety-focused company Anthropic to lead a new team focused on pre-training research. His role will specifically involve using Anthropic's Claude model to accelerate exploration in pre-training, the foundational stage of large language model development. Karpathy's move is seen as a significant signal in the AI industry, combining his deep technical credibility with substantial public influence. It follows a period of momentum for Anthropic, which recently surpassed OpenAI in enterprise adoption rates and has expanded its offerings to smaller businesses. The move also highlights a continuing trend of talent migration from OpenAI to Anthropic, often linked to differing priorities on commercialization versus research depth and safety. By placing Karpathy on pre-training, Anthropic is making a long-term bet on fundamental AI advancements, exploring the meta-idea of using current AI to help build the next generation of models.

marsbit05/21 08:02

What Does the Top AI Influencer Karpathy Seek by Joining Anthropic?

marsbit05/21 08:02

Singapore Shuts Down Bsquared’s Crypto Payment Operations – Details

Singapore's central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), has revoked the Major Payment Institution License of crypto firm Bsquared Technology. The decision followed an on-site inspection that uncovered significant compliance failures, including poor risk management, mishandling of conflicts of interest, and violations of outsourcing rules. Crucially, MAS found that Bsquared provided false or misleading information on multiple occasions, from its initial license application through the inspection process. The firm, which held the license for just 16 months, must now produce a closure certificate confirming all customer funds have been returned. MAS is also reviewing the conduct of the company's key officers, indicating potential individual consequences. This rare license revocation highlights Singapore's strict regulatory enforcement for its crypto sector, emphasizing that maintaining high standards is a priority for the financial hub.

bitcoinist05/21 08:02

Singapore Shuts Down Bsquared’s Crypto Payment Operations – Details

bitcoinist05/21 08:02

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