Matrixport Research: $25 Billion Gamma Liquidation Imminent, Liquidity Yet to Return Despite Rebound
Based on Matrixport's research, Bitcoin's recent breakdown below a key support level, as indicated in the October 31, 2025, report, has confirmed a bearish trend. The magnitude and rhythm of this pullback are comparable to previous bear market phases. The market focus has shifted from debating a potential trend reversal to anticipating the next optimal window for asset allocation.
The analysis, utilizing a cyclical framework, identifies that Bitcoin likely entered a confirmed bear market phase after multiple characteristics of a late fifth bull cycle emerged and key support level was lost. A critical development was Bitcoin's break below its one-year moving average in November 2025, a historical signal often marking the start of a bear market that typically lasts around 12 months. This projects the next potential bull cycle to begin in Q4 2026, with a cyclical low possibly arriving earlier in Q3 2026.
The report posits that Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" is less driven by halving events and is more likely synchronized with the rhythm of U.S. mid-term election cycles, which bring regulatory and political uncertainty that better explains the timing of market tops and bottoms.
From a technical perspective, key monthly indicators have not yet reached crucial oversold thresholds that have historically signaled a market bottom. The monthly Stochastic oscillator, which often completed its bottoming process after falling below 15%, currently sits at approximately 39%. Similarly, the monthly RSI, which finds key support near 48, is currently around 50. A true bottoming signal often requires a "break below key support followed by an upward reversal" confirmation, which is not yet present.
The research concludes that the final low of this bear market may not yet be in. History suggests Bitcoin more commonly bottoms during phases of low volume, receding selling pressure, and falling market enthusiasm. The recent rapid decline, accompanied by liquidations and falling volumes, resembles a capitulation event rather than a final cyclical low. Therefore, the truly worthwhile window for re-accumulation requires patience, waiting for key monthly indicators to hit extreme oversold zones and show confirmed reversal signals. The prerequisite for an orderly recovery is confirmed downward momentum exhaustion, not merely judging a trend reversal based on price proximity to historical lows.
Matrixport02/27 08:53
