2026-04-22 Среда

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a16z Crypto Operating Partner: Wall Street Is Undergoing Its Biggest Infrastructure Upgrade in 30 Years

Wall Street is undergoing its largest infrastructure upgrade in 30 years by migrating to on-chain systems, moving beyond mere blockchain exploration. This shift is driven by the promise of significantly faster capital movement, similar to the electronic trading revolution of the 1990s which reduced costs, expanded participation, and increased market size. Tokenization—digital representations of real-world assets like Treasuries and stocks on blockchain—enables 24/7 markets, instant settlement, fractional ownership, and global accessibility. Major institutions are already adopting this: DTCC plans to tokenize U.S. Treasuries by 2026, NYSE is launching a platform for on-chain stock trading, and Tradeweb has executed real-time blockchain-based Treasury trades. The current financial system’s inefficiencies—high fees, slow settlement, and intermediary dependencies—create opportunities for disruption. Smart contracts and atomic settlement eliminate these frictions, turning existing profit margins into avenues for innovation. Regulatory clarity, such as the CLARITY Act, is further accelerating this transition. Established institutions are not competitors but potential customers for new infrastructure products. Founders have a window to build the next generation of financial services atop this emerging regulated, institutional-grade framework. The outcome will be a larger, more liquid, and accessible global market.

marsbit03/26 03:59

a16z Crypto Operating Partner: Wall Street Is Undergoing Its Biggest Infrastructure Upgrade in 30 Years

marsbit03/26 03:59

Delphi Labs Founder: Two Weeks Deep in China's AI, Shenzhen Hardware Shocks Me, Software Valuations Scare Me

Delphi Labs co-founder José Maria Macedo spent two weeks in China meeting AI founders, VCs, and public company CEOs. His key takeaways: - **Hardware ecosystem in Shenzhen is impressive**, with systematic reverse-engineering of Western products and rapid iteration cycles. Companies like Bambu Lab are highly profitable and scaling fast. - **Software ecosystem is weaker than expected**. Chinese open-source models are strong, but closed-source models lag behind Western counterparts. GPU access remains constrained, and revenue gaps are significant (e.g., Anthropic’s $6B ARR vs. Chinese model companies at tens of millions). - **Founder profiles are highly accomplished** (top universities, Big Tech experience) but often lack rebellious, original vision. The education and VC systems favor execution over true innovation. - **Valuation bubbles exist** at both early and late stages. Some private AI companies are valued at 400x ARR, far exceeding Western multiples. Humanoid robotics is also overheating, with many pre-revenue companies targeting high-valuation IPOs. - **Information asymmetry favors Chinese founders**, who are highly informed about Western markets and tech trends. Many are building globally first, combining Chinese engineering with Western go-to-market strategies. Macedo believes the real alpha lies in finding non-traditional founders who break the "resume template" optimized by local VCs.

marsbit03/26 03:16

Delphi Labs Founder: Two Weeks Deep in China's AI, Shenzhen Hardware Shocks Me, Software Valuations Scare Me

marsbit03/26 03:16

Wall Street Collectively Pessimistic About 2026: Could an Oil Crisis Trigger an Economic Recession?

In late March, multiple major financial institutions—Moody's Analytics, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and EY-Parthenon—raised their 12-month recession probability forecasts for the U.S. to over 30%. Moody’s gave the highest estimate at 48.6%, followed by EY-Parthenon at 40%, J.P. Morgan at 35%, and Goldman Sachs at 30%. A key common factor is the sharp rise in oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel in early March—the first time in four years—due to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route. Historical data indicates that four out of the five major oil price shocks since the 1970s led to economic recessions. Although the current price increase of around 80% is the smallest among them, the scale of supply disruption is described by the IEA as the largest since the 1970s energy crises. J.P. Morgan estimates that every sustained 10% increase in oil prices reduces U.S. GDP growth by 15–20 basis points. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, outlined two extreme outcomes: either geopolitical resolution leads to oil prices falling to $40 and global growth, or prolonged conflict keeps prices above $100—possibly near $150—triggering a global recession. He ruled out a 2008-style systemic financial meltdown, citing stronger bank buffers. Beyond oil, declining consumer confidence and weak employment data are amplifying concerns. The convergence of pessimistic forecasts from different methodological approaches may itself influence economic behavior, potentially becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy as businesses and consumers become more cautious.

marsbit03/26 03:05

Wall Street Collectively Pessimistic About 2026: Could an Oil Crisis Trigger an Economic Recession?

marsbit03/26 03:05

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