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Elections, Oil Prices, and the Money Printer: Why Bitcoin Only Cares About Trump

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, analyzes the U.S. election, oil prices, and monetary expansion through a trader’s lens, arguing that Bitcoin’s performance hinges on Trump’s policies. He asserts that politicians’s primary goal is reelection, driven by economic perceptions of voters. For electoral success, Trump must boost nominal GDP through credit expansion while suppressing oil-driven inflation, particularly gasoline prices, which significantly influence voter behavior. Hayes suggests that controlling Venezuelan oil is a strategic move to keep energy costs low. If oil prices remain stable or fall amid economic growth, Trump’s camp benefits; rising oil costs could favor opponents. The key for investors is to monitor oil prices and Treasury yields—if they spike, credit expansion may slow, hurting risk assets. Otherwise, continued money printing will likely propel Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies upward. Hayes concludes that persistent dollar liquidity expansion, driven by deficit spending and Fed policies, will cause Bitcoin to "moon." His fund, Maelstrom, is positioned long on privacy-focused crypto assets like ZEC, expecting them to outperform major cryptocurrencies amid ongoing monetary inflation.

marsbit01/06 07:12

Elections, Oil Prices, and the Money Printer: Why Bitcoin Only Cares About Trump

marsbit01/06 07:12

Is 2026 The Year For Altcoin Season? Key Conditions That Must Be Met

Analysts from Bull Theory suggest that 2026 could be the year for a significant altcoin season, following a difficult 2025. They argue that altcoin cycles historically begin after Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have bottomed and started to break out. Key indicators supporting this outlook include the ALT/BTC ratio, which shows potential reversal signals after a nearly four-year downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at its most oversold level in history, and the MACD is turning green for the first time in 21 months, hinting at a bullish crossover. Additionally, the Russell 2000 index, a gauge of investor risk appetite, broke to new all-time highs in Q4 2025, a pattern that preceded major altcoin rallies in 2017 and 2021. Improved liquidity, a more stable Federal Reserve policy, and expected regulatory clarity are also cited as positive factors fueling optimism for an altcoin surge in 2026.

bitcoinist01/06 07:02

Is 2026 The Year For Altcoin Season? Key Conditions That Must Be Met

bitcoinist01/06 07:02

Zcash: Why ZEC keeps failing at $520 despite brief rebounds

Zcash (ZEC) has experienced a sharp shift in market behavior, with traders reducing exposure and sentiment turning defensive. After a late December surge, ZEC pulled back from highs above $530 and is consolidating near critical support at $495. A break below this level could trigger a drop toward $450. The MACD indicates fading bullish momentum. Price action is heavily influenced by liquidation waves, with rallies toward $520 repeatedly met by defensive selling and short liquidations, capping upside. Significant outflows, exceeding $101 million in a week, highlight persistent selling pressure, particularly affecting privacy coins like ZEC due to regulatory and liquidity concerns. The market remains dominated by derivatives, requiring a reset in leverage or stronger spot demand for a sustained recovery.

ambcrypto01/06 07:02

Zcash: Why ZEC keeps failing at $520 despite brief rebounds

ambcrypto01/06 07:02

Bitcoin Mining Costs Could Ease if Venezuelan Oil Production Expands

The potential expansion of Venezuelan oil production, facilitated by U.S. firms gaining access to its large reserves, could lower global energy prices and reduce Bitcoin mining costs. Analysts note that cheaper electricity would directly benefit miners facing rising operational expenses. However, despite Venezuela’s significant oil reserves, its current production remains low due to underinvestment and sanctions. Restoring production to previous levels could require over $100 billion and take years to achieve. While lower energy costs may improve mining profitability, experts caution that factors like network difficulty, hardware efficiency, and regulations also play crucial roles. This development highlights how shifts in energy markets can influence cryptocurrency mining dynamics globally.

TheNewsCrypto01/06 06:49

Bitcoin Mining Costs Could Ease if Venezuelan Oil Production Expands

TheNewsCrypto01/06 06:49

Stuck in a Local Optimum, Prediction Markets Should Not Stop Here

This article argues that prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are stuck in a "local maximum," similar to past tech giants like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While they've achieved initial success with a binary options model, the author contends this design is fundamentally flawed and prevents mass adoption. Core problems include severe liquidity issues (with wide bid-ask spreads and low activity in most markets), inefficient capital use, and a structure that fragments liquidity. The piece highlights that much of the reported trading volume is concentrated on a few major events or is incentivized/synthetic, masking weak organic demand. The author proposes that prediction markets must evolve towards a "perpetual contract" model, akin to those in crypto derivatives exchanges, to achieve their true potential as "markets for everything." This would require solving core structural problems like "jump risk" (sudden price moves from 45% to 100%), enabling native leverage, and allowing for continuous price discovery and hedging. Without this fundamental redesign, the current platforms will remain niche, unable to attract the broader user base and deep liquidity required for their grand vision.

marsbit01/06 06:40

Stuck in a Local Optimum, Prediction Markets Should Not Stop Here

marsbit01/06 06:40

Grayscale Becomes First U.S. Issuer to Pay ETH Staking Rewards

Grayscale has become the first U.S.-listed cryptocurrency issuer to distribute Ethereum staking rewards, marking a significant milestone for institutional participation in blockchain-based yield. Its Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF (ETHE) completed an initial distribution of $9.4 million in cash, equivalent to staking rewards earned between October and December 2025. This allows investors to gain yield from Ethereum’s proof-of-stake mechanism without diluting their ETH exposure. The move represents a structural shift for Ethereum ETFs, adding a yield component beyond pure price tracking. While offering new opportunities, the product also carries risks such as staking lock-ups and smart contract vulnerabilities. Other major firms like BlackRock and Fidelity are also exploring staking-enabled ETH products, but Grayscale is the first to successfully execute a reward distribution. This development underscores Ethereum’s growing role as a source of regulated yield for institutional investors.

TheNewsCrypto01/06 06:16

Grayscale Becomes First U.S. Issuer to Pay ETH Staking Rewards

TheNewsCrypto01/06 06:16

XRP’s buying pressure on the up after 31% weekly rally – What next?

XRP has surged 31% in a week, reaching $2.39 and outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum. It now ranks as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. The rally is supported by an 8-year low in exchange reserves, a 57% drop since October 2025, and significant spot ETF inflows, including a $46.10 million net inflow on January 5. Key drivers include Franklin and Bitwise ETFs. Despite overbought RSI levels, bullish momentum remains strong with no immediate pullback expected. However, Bitcoin's weakness could negatively impact XRP's trend. Overall, strong buying pressure and reduced supply suggest continued bullish performance.

ambcrypto01/06 06:02

XRP’s buying pressure on the up after 31% weekly rally – What next?

ambcrypto01/06 06:02

Japan’s ‘Digital Year’: Finance Minister Eyes Crypto Integration Into Stock Exchanges

Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has declared 2026 as the nation's "Digital Year," endorsing the integration of crypto assets and blockchain technology into financial markets. She emphasized the role of stock exchanges in providing public access to digital assets and supporting the transition from savings to investment. Katayama expressed support for crypto-based investment products, similar to US ETFs, and highlighted the importance of robust governance for sector growth. Additionally, a 2026 tax reform proposal plans to reclassify crypto as financial products and introduce a separate 20% flat tax rate, replacing the current progressive tax of up to 55%.

bitcoinist01/06 06:02

Japan’s ‘Digital Year’: Finance Minister Eyes Crypto Integration Into Stock Exchanges

bitcoinist01/06 06:02

The Most Miserable Public Offering: Over $60 Million Raised, Infinex's Public Sale Attracts Only $460,000 After 1 Day

Infinex, a prominent crypto project founded by Synthetix creator Kain Warwick, has experienced one of the most disappointing public token sales in recent memory. Despite raising over $65 million in earlier funding rounds from major VCs and industry figures, its public sale—launched in early 2026—attracted only $460,000 within the first 30 hours, less than 10% of its reduced $5 million goal. The project had already significantly lowered its valuation from $300 million to $100 million in response to weak market conditions. However, strict participation limits—capping contributions at $2,500 per address—and a one-year token lockup deterred wider interest. Even after removing the cap and adjusting allocation rules, participation remained low, with only 508 transactions totaling $1.34 million by the following day. Infinex aims to offer a unified DeFi interface with perpetual contracts, cross-chain bridging, and simplified key management. But its failed sale highlights deeper structural issues in the current market: declining risk appetite, reduced on-chain activity, and growing investor skepticism toward long lockups and high valuations. This case may signal challenges for other upcoming token launches in a cooling market.

marsbit01/06 05:38

The Most Miserable Public Offering: Over $60 Million Raised, Infinex's Public Sale Attracts Only $460,000 After 1 Day