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Bitcoin struggles as S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally – What’s holding BTC back?

Global markets faced pressure in 2025 due to shifts in U.S. trade policies, impacting risk assets. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted gains of 16% and 20% year-to-date, respectively, Bitcoin experienced a sharp 36% drawdown, particularly in Q4. This performance divergence caused Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities to drop to yearly lows, around -0.30 with the S&P 500 and -0.24 with the Nasdaq. Despite short-term underperformance, Bitcoin’s long-term compound annual growth rate remained strong at 47% over five years, far exceeding traditional assets. The weakening correlation reinforces Bitcoin’s status as a distinct asset class but limits its ability to benefit from equity rallies, leading to increased independence and potential volatility in response to macro shifts.

ambcrypto12/14 12:01

Bitcoin struggles as S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally – What’s holding BTC back?

ambcrypto12/14 12:01

Is It More Profitable To Hold Bitcoin For The Short-Term? 2025 Numbers Are Here

Bitcoin short-term holders, defined as addresses holding BTC for 1-3 months, were profitable for about 66% of trading days in 2025, equivalent to roughly 230 days. They benefited from extended periods where Bitcoin traded above their average cost basis, especially during rallies above $100,000 and a peak near $115,000 in July. However, the current price around $90,000 is below the short-term realized price of just over $100,000, resulting in approximately a 10% loss. This loss recently deepened to -20% in November, marking the worst period for this group in 2025. While the year was largely profitable for short-term holders, the present outlook remains unfavorable until Bitcoin reclaims the $100,000 threshold.

bitcoinist12/14 11:46

Is It More Profitable To Hold Bitcoin For The Short-Term? 2025 Numbers Are Here

bitcoinist12/14 11:46

Weekly Preview | HASHKEY Expected to List on December 17; Coinbase Plans to Launch Prediction Markets and Tokenized Stocks

This week in crypto and finance features key events from December 15-20. On December 17, HashKey Group is set to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise up to HK$1.67 billion. Also on the 17th, Coinbase is expected to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks. Regulatory focus includes an SEC roundtable on financial regulation and privacy on the 15th. Major macroeconomic data includes the U.S. November CPI report on the 18th and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on the 19th, where a rate hike is widely anticipated. Significant token unlocks are scheduled: Starknet (STRK) and Sei (SEI) on the 15th, Arbitrum (ARB) on the 16th, and LayerZero (ZRO) and Lista DAO (LISTA) on the 20th. Other notable events include the gensyn AI protocol public sale, Synthetix returning to Ethereum mainnet, and the Jupiter (JUP) stablecoin, JupUSD, expected to launch.

marsbit12/14 11:41

Weekly Preview | HASHKEY Expected to List on December 17; Coinbase Plans to Launch Prediction Markets and Tokenized Stocks

marsbit12/14 11:41

Conversation with Polygon Founder: Escaping Poverty and Building a $30 Billion Crypto Company

Sandeep Nailwal, co-founder of Polygon, discusses his journey from a challenging childhood in India to building a $30 billion blockchain company. Growing up in poverty, he developed a strong drive for success. Nailwal works long hours, often sleeping only 4-5 hours a night, to advance Polygon’s mission of enabling sovereign individuals through decentralized systems. He believes blockchain and AI are critical for creating a borderless world with decentralized governance and financial freedom. While blockchain supports decentralization, AI represents a centralizing force, making their intersection vital for future societal structures. Nailwal also emphasizes the importance of philanthropy, aiming to reduce suffering for others based on his own experiences. Polygon faced significant challenges, including financial struggles and market volatility, but has grown into a leading platform. Projects like Polymarket choose Polygon for its scalability and network effects. Looking ahead, Nailwal plans to focus on AI and decentralized governance long-term, aiming to contribute to a freer, more equitable global system.

marsbit12/14 11:41

Conversation with Polygon Founder: Escaping Poverty and Building a $30 Billion Crypto Company

marsbit12/14 11:41

Decoding BNB’s strength as XRP loses ground in high-cap rankings

Despite a weak Q4 and broader altcoin market downturn, Binance Coin (BNB) has demonstrated notable resilience, remaining up 27% annually and 30% above its Q3 open. This performance has allowed BNB to overtake XRP as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, surpassing $120 billion. The shift is reflected in an 8.5% decline in the XRP/BNB ratio over the past month, indicating capital rotation toward BNB. On-chain data supports this trend, with Binance Smart Chain's TVL down only 9% to $6.86 billion, compared to a 30% decline in XRP's DeFi activity. This divergence suggests a potential long-term reversal in crypto market rankings, positioning BNB for stronger relative returns among high-cap assets into 2026.

ambcrypto12/14 11:02

Decoding BNB’s strength as XRP loses ground in high-cap rankings

ambcrypto12/14 11:02

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is intact, but driven by politics and liquidity: Analyst

According to Markus Thielen of 10x Research, Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact but is now driven more by political events and liquidity conditions rather than its halving events. Thielen argues that past market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 align more closely with U.S. presidential election cycles and broader political uncertainty than with Bitcoin’s programmed supply reductions. He also notes that recent Federal Reserve rate cuts have failed to boost Bitcoin significantly, as institutional investors remain cautious amid mixed policy signals and tightening liquidity. Thielen expecting consolidation rather than a major rally without increased capital inflows. In contrast, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes contends the four-year cycle is dead, asserting that Bitcoin’s cycles have always been driven by global liquidity conditions, not arbitrary timelines or halving events.

cointelegraph12/14 10:38

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is intact, but driven by politics and liquidity: Analyst

cointelegraph12/14 10:38

Bitcoin will ‘dump below $70K’ thanks to hawkish Japan: Macro analysts

Based on analysis from multiple macro-focused analysts, Bitcoin (BTC) could face a continued correction toward or below $70,000 if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) proceeds with an expected interest rate hike on December 19. The thesis centers on Japan's role in global liquidity, as past BoJ rate hikes have strengthened the yen, making it more expensive to borrow and invest in risk assets. This often forces traders to unwind "yen carry trades," reducing global market liquidity and pressuring Bitcoin during risk-off periods. Historical data highlighted by analyst AndrewBTC shows that every BoJ hike since 2024 coincided with Bitcoin price drawdowns exceeding 20%, including declines of 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025. Furthermore, Bitcoin's daily chart shows a bear flag formation, a technical pattern that often signals a pause before a trend continuation. A breakdown from this pattern could trigger a move lower toward the $70,000–$72,500 zone, a downside target also shared by other analysts.

cointelegraph12/14 10:31

Bitcoin will ‘dump below $70K’ thanks to hawkish Japan: Macro analysts

cointelegraph12/14 10:31

‘Stealth QE’ vs. Japan risk: What’s next for Bitcoin after the Fed rate cut?

Bitcoin's price remains mixed following the dovish Fed rate cut, trading around $90.2k and struggling below $100k. Analysts suggest the Fed's "stealth QE" and liquidity injections could support crypto into early 2026, but near-term risks loom. The Bank of Japan's rate decision on December 19th and a mid-January MSCI review pose potential downside threats. Options data shows heightened bearish hedging, and historical patterns indicate BTC could drop 20-30% if the BoJ hikes rates. A decisive rebound is possible if these events pass favorably, but further sell-offs risk pushing BTC into bear-market capitulation if unrealized losses exceed 20%.

ambcrypto12/14 10:02

‘Stealth QE’ vs. Japan risk: What’s next for Bitcoin after the Fed rate cut?

ambcrypto12/14 10:02

Twenty One’s first-day slide highlights investor caution toward BTC-backed stocks

Twenty One Capital, a Bitcoin-native company with ambitions to become the largest corporate BTC holder, saw its shares fall nearly 20% on its NYSE debut under ticker XXI. Despite holding over 43,500 BTC and having high-profile backers like Cantor Fitzgerald and Tether, the stock traded close to its net asset value, signaling a lack of investor premium for its business model. The decline reflects broader caution due to Bitcoin's volatility, fading SPAC enthusiasm, and eroding mNAV premiums. Investors appear to be shifting toward demanding clear revenue models and sustainable cash flows rather than pure Bitcoin treasury narratives.

cointelegraph12/14 09:12

Twenty One’s first-day slide highlights investor caution toward BTC-backed stocks

cointelegraph12/14 09:12

$350B in crypto losses – But big Bitcoin buyers are moving in

The cryptocurrency market has faced significant pressure, with unrealized losses reaching $350 billion. Bitcoin investors alone account for $85 billion of that total. Despite this bearish tone, large-scale buyers are stepping in. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have been steadily accumulating Bitcoin, with their holdings now representing over 8% of the total supply. This accumulation, nearing 24,000 BTC daily, is providing price-supportive momentum and could help Bitcoin hold above $90,000. Institutional investors are also maintaining their pace, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posting net inflows of $286.6 million last week. While the Fund Market Premium remains negative, indicating short-term caution, the consistent accumulation suggests underlying confidence. Broader macroeconomic factors are providing additional support. Global M2 money supply has hit a record $130 trillion, creating a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. Furthermore, the recent 25-basis-point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve has reduced borrowing costs, historically a positive catalyst. Sustained capital rotation into Bitcoin remains the key factor to watch for accelerated upward price movement.

ambcrypto12/14 08:02

$350B in crypto losses – But big Bitcoin buyers are moving in

ambcrypto12/14 08:02

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