Solana 已跌至历史性超卖水平——情况比 FTX 时期更糟

bitcoinistОпубликовано 2026-06-09Обновлено 2026-06-09

Введение

Solana(SOL)已进入深度超卖区域,技术指标显示其月度相对强弱指数(RSI)已跌至38.84,低于信号线,这一超卖程度甚至比2022年FTX崩盘期间更为严重。尽管当前价格(约60美元)远高于2022年的底部(8美元),但RSI数值更低,表明本轮下跌的动能衰减异常剧烈。 分析师指出,持续的超卖状态可能意味着卖家力量枯竭,或为价格反转铺平道路——正如SOL在2022年触底后曾暴涨至270美元以上。然而,目前SOL已连续八个月收跌,价格较2025年历史高点下跌超80%,且仍处于明确的下跌趋势中,尚无任何技术信号能确认底部已形成。 若底部未现,SOL可能仍有下跌空间;若已触底,则意味着抛压基本释放,长期持有者可能主导市场,为后续复苏创造条件。当前市场不确定性仍高,需进一步观察价格走势与指标变化。

Solana (SOL) 已正式进入深度超卖区域,分析师称,这一水平比加密货币在 FTX 崩盘期间达到的水平更糟。在这一区域的下跌凸显了经过数月的波动和急剧价格下跌后,市场已变得多么悲观。去年全年,Solana 经历了大规模反弹,将其价格推高至 200 美元以上。然而,如今该加密货币在 2026 年的大部分时间里都在 60 美元至 95 美元左右的较低水平之间交易。鉴于表现不佳,一位加密货币分析师正在质疑 SOL 是否可能最终已经触底

Solana RSI 触及比 FTX 崩盘更深的超卖水平

根据市场专家 Ash Crypto 分享的详细价格图表,Solana 的月度相对强弱指数 (RSI) 已跌至 38.84,低于位于 48.86 附近的信号线。该分析师指出,这一读数表明 该山寨币已达到超卖水平,其程度甚至比 2022 年 FTX 破产崩溃、SOL 跌至 8 美元附近低点时记录的水平更为极端。

尽管当前价格远高于 2022 年 8 美元的底部,但 RSI 却更低,这一事实表明 本轮周期的动能下降 异常严重。从技术角度来看,月度 RSI 的长期超卖读数可能预示着 潜在的价格逆转,反映了卖方的衰竭。然而,超卖状况可能会持续很长时间,因为仅凭低 RSI 并不能确认加密货币已到达底部。

来源:X

鉴于 Solana 未来价格方向的不确定性,Ash Crypto 正在质疑这位陷入困境的山寨币是否最终找到了价格底部。如果已经触底,则意味着大多数想要退出的交易者可能已经离场,只剩下致力于 Solana 长期发展的持有者。这种类型的投降通常 为复苏奠定了基础,因为市场上几乎没有剩余的卖压来扰乱市场。

值得注意的是,在 Solana 于 2022 年跌至 8 美元的底部之后,该加密货币 最终在 2025 年反弹至 270 美元以上,实现了高达 3,000% 的复苏。虽然本轮周期的确认底部并不能保证同样规模的增长,但从历史经验看,在 RSI 读数下触及价格底部的资产往往会带来显著的反弹。

如果 SOL 尚未触底意味着什么

另一方面,Ash Crypto 在他的分析中指出,Solana 价格在从 2025 年的历史高点暴跌超过 80% 后,已跌至三年低点 60 美元。该分析师指出,加密货币历史上首次出现了连续八根月度阴线,突显了其看跌趋势的深度。

目前,SOL 的图表上没有任何信号能明确确认底部或即将发生的价格逆转。这是因为 Solana 仍牢牢处于看跌区域,这意味着其 RSI 可能比预期更长时间地保持超卖状态。如果价格底部尚未触及,则表明 SOL 仍有进一步下跌的空间,可能会将加密货币推至当前 60 美元水平以下。

SOL 价格未能维持上涨趋势 | 来源:Tradingview.com 上的 SOLUSDT

Связанные с этим вопросы

Q根据文章,Solana目前的月度相对强弱指数(RSI)与FTX崩溃时相比如何?

A根据市场专家Ash Crypto的分析,Solana目前的月度RSI已降至38.84,低于信号线(约48.86)。这一读数表明,其超卖程度甚至比2022年FTX崩溃、SOL跌至8美元附近低点时更为极端。

Q文章提到,如果Solana已经触底,可能意味着什么市场状况?

A如果已经触底,意味着大多数想要退出的交易者可能已经离场,市场上只剩下长期持有者。这种投降式抛售(capitulation)通常为复苏奠定基础,因为市场几乎没有剩余的抛售压力来扰乱市场。

Q文章中指出,2022年触底后Solana的价格表现如何?

A2022年跌至约8美元的低点后,Solana最终在2025年反弹至超过270美元,实现了约3000%的巨大涨幅。

Q分析师Ash Crypto提到Solana目前面临哪些不利的技术面信号?

A他指出,Solana的价格已从2025年的历史高点下跌超过80%,跌至60美元的三年低点。并且,其月度K线图出现了史上首次连续八根阴线,突显了其下跌趋势的深度。

Q文章认为,仅凭月度RSI处于超卖区域是否足以确认价格已经触底?为什么?

A不足以。文章明确指出,超卖状况可以持续很长时间,仅凭较低的RSI读数并不能确认加密货币已经触底。因为Solana仍牢牢处于看跌区域,其RSI的超卖状态可能比预期持续得更久,价格仍有进一步下跌的空间。

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