Examining Bitcoin’s crossroads: What whale deposits reveal about the next move

Key Takeaways

Is Bitcoin nearing a bottom?

Analyst Burak Kesmeci’s Realized Price Gradient Oscillator dropped to -1.27 STDV, a level that historically preceded trend reversals.

What’s holding BTC back?

Spot Taker CVD stayed red, Exchange Whale Ratio hit 0.59, and Open Interest rose—showing sellers’ dominance despite rebound signals.

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Since hitting $116,000 at the end of October, Bitcoin [BTC] has dropped below $100k three times. At press time, BTC traded at $101,839, down 8% on the weekly chart — evidence of persistent bearish pressure.

Amid this market downslide, crypto analysts have debated heavily on Bitcoin’s futures trajectory. One of them is CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, who believes the correction phase may be nearing its end, hinting at a potential recovery.

Oscillator suggests cooldown phase maturing

According to Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin’s correction phase may be coming to an end.

Kesmeci’s analysis showed the 90-Day Realized Price Gradient Oscillator fell to a -1.27 STDV level. Historically, when this metric dropped below -1 STDV, Bitcoin often reversed upward.

The dip indicated an extreme cooldown, with the correction phase nearing completion and BTC hinting at recovery.

For example, this metric has dropped to these levels before. The first instance saw BTC rise from $82k to $110k, and the second instance saw BTC jump from $108k to $124k. 

Therefore, if historical patterns are anything to go by, these levels are a sign of local bottoms and a rebound could be in sight. 

Spot traders remain seller-dominant

Although Kesmeci observed a potential market recovery signal, Bitcoin’s structure remained overly bearish. As such, the Spot market stagnated with increased sell-side activity leading to overreliance on derivatives. 

Spot Taker CVD has stayed red throughout the past week, showing consistent sell dominance. Sellers appear to be locking in profits or exiting positions to limit losses.

Meanwhile, the Exchange Whale Ratio climbed to 0.59 at press time, its highest in three weeks — implying whales have been depositing BTC on exchanges, a move that often precedes large selloffs.

On the Derivatives side, Funding Rates stayed positive while Open Interest increased by $700 million, rising from $33.6 billion to $34.3 billion.

When OI rises and the Funding Rates remain positive while Spot is selling, it signals an unstable market structure driven by leverage.

Thus, leverage traders had been actively fighting Spot pressure, which is often a warning signal of a downtrend continuation or a possible liquidation event.

BTC at crossroads

According to AMBCrypto, Bitcoin remained stuck amid bearish sentiment, especially from whales, in the spot market.

The Spot market showed clear bearish sentiment, while Derivatives activity reflected optimism from leveraged traders.

If bearishness persists, BTC could retest $98K. But if the Realized Price Gradient Oscillator again triggers a reversal, a short-term bounce toward $107,456 remains possible.