Key Takeaways
What’s next for Bitcoin’s price?
Per an analyst, an extended price range was likely to occur until OGs and LTH finish offloading.
How’s the market positioned in the near-term?
Options flows show mild bullish bias through November, but traders remain cautious heading into year-end.
Bitcoin [BTC] has become boring lately. As a perceived risk asset, you could easily predict its next direction by tracking the U.S equities and overall liquidity.
But the crypto asset has shown random dislocation from the Nasdaq Composite and even gold. This has made it harder to gauge.
In October, for example, gold had its moment; now Nasdaq has followed suit, but BTC continued to underperform, noted CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, Julio Moreno.
Source: CryptoQuant
While the Nasdaq and gold printed new highs last month, BTC was in a pullback, shedding over $16,000 from $126,000 to $110,000.
The results? BTC saw its first red “Uptober” since 2028. The sentiment has soured, unnerving a section of CT (Crypto Twitter), which feared that we could be entering the cyclical “bear phase.”
‘IPO moment’ or consolidation phase?
However, others have made a contrarian bet- A consolidation instead of a “bear phase” into 2026.
According to Jordi Visser, Analyst at 22V Research, BTC may be in its “IPO moment”, citing the OG distribution and drawing parallels to traditional initial public offerings (IPOs).
Visser noted,
“When a company goes public and early investors begin to sell their positions, the stock often consolidates, even during broader market rallies.”
The BTC OGs, who’ve held the asset for several years and other LTHs (long-term holders), have been dumping into the rally.
In fact, LTHs have been offloading throughout H2, dumping 383K BTC (about $42B) in October alone, outpacing ETF demand.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, Visser said that the distribution doesn’t mean BTC is dying. In contrast, it’s a sign of maturity as treasuries and ETFs step in to offer exit liquidity for early investors, similar to IPOs.
As a result, BTC could enter a consolidation phase, similar to those experienced by Facebook and Google after their IPOs. He added,
“IPO distribution periods typically last 6-18 months. We’re probably several months into this process, but likely not done.”
Following the post-IPO consolidation, tech stocks rallied, Visser highlighted. His outlook was echoed by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, calling the projection an “accurate state of the BTC market.”
Options flows tilt bullish into November
That said, Options flows underscored bullish expectations into the end of November, but with a more cautious positioning towards year-end.
Notably, there were heavier call volumes (green bars) around $112K-$120K, suggesting bullish inclinations in the near term (end-November).
Source: Arkham
However, in December, there was a slight uptick in put activity around $105,000, suggesting hedging or a cautious tone at year-end.
