Bitwise CIO：Solana 即将迎来史诗级上涨！

比推Опубликовано 2025-09-11Обновлено 2025-09-11

来源：Bitwise

作者：Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan

编译及整理：BitpushNews

所有条件都已具备，Solana即将迎来史诗级的年末上涨。

在过去 18 个月里，加密货币获得强劲回报的秘诀很明显：一部分 ETP（交易所交易产品）资金流入，加上强劲的企业财库购买，瞧，你就会得到巨大的回报。

比特币遵循了这个秘诀，从 2024 年 1 月的 4 万美元飙升到今天的 11.2 万美元。以太坊在 2025 年 4 月发现了同样的秘诀，此后价格翻了三倍，达到 4500 美元。

这个秘诀奏效并不奇怪。这是经典的供需关系。

自 2024 年 1 月 11 日以来，比特币网络共产出了 322,681 个比特币，而 ETP 和企业购买了超过 110 万个。

自 2025 年 4 月 15 日以来，以太坊网络共产出了 388,568 个 ETH，而 ETP 和企业则购得了 740 万个。

当需求超过供应时，价格通常会上涨。

我为什么认为 Solana (SOL) 会是下一个

Solana 具备了遵循这一路径的条件。

多家发行商——Bitwise、Grayscale、VanEck、Franklin Templeton、Fidelity、Invesco/Galaxy 和 Canary Capital——都已提交了申请，准备推出现货 Solana ETP。美国证券交易委员会（SEC）将在 2025 年 10 月 10 日或之前对这些申请做出裁决，这意味着我们可能在第四季度看到多家发行商同时推动现货 Solana ETP。¹

同时，就在上周末，三家主要公司——Galaxy Digital、Jump Crypto 和Multicoin Capital——向一家大型上市的 Solana 财库公司 Forward Industries 承诺投入 16.5 亿美元的现金和稳定币。交易完成后，这家新公司将开始购买 SOL，进行质押，并旨在获得超额回报。²

值得注意的是，Forward Industries 任命 Multicoin Capital 联合创始人Kyle Samani为董事长。Multicoin 是最早投资 Solana 的公司之一，而 Samani 一直是 Solana 最善于表达且最坚定的支持者之一。

Michael Saylor从他作为比特币财库公司 Strategy 的执行主席角色，在推广比特币方面发挥了关键作用；

Tom Lee也在 BitMine（一家以太坊财库公司）担任董事长，为以太坊做了同样的事情；

如果 Samani 也能在 CNBC、彭博社和 Fox Business 上传播 Solana 的信息，这将有助于推动投资者需求的良性循环。

Solana 的卖点是什么？

当然，仅仅存在 ETP 和财库公司并不能保证投资者会买账。必须有一个根本性的理由让投资者对这些工具感兴趣。一个很好的例子是：尽管以太坊 ETF 在 2024 年 6 月获得批准，但直到 2025 年 4 月才真正火起来，当时人们对稳定币的兴趣日益高涨，从而激发了投资者对作为顶级稳定币区块链的以太坊的兴趣。

那么，Solana 的卖点是什么？

Solana 是以太坊的竞争对手。它是一个可编程的区块链，旨在托管稳定币、代币化资产和去中心化金融应用等。Solana 最大的卖点在于它能够比以太坊处理更多每秒交易（TPS），同时交易成本极低（<0.01 美元）且具有快速的最终性。事实上，该区块链最近批准了一项重大技术升级，将交易最终确定所需的时间从大约 12 秒缩短至 150 毫秒——几乎是眨眼之间。一旦上线，这项升级将使 Solana 成为世界上最快的区块链之一。

Solana 通过与以太坊截然不同的技术设计来实现这一点。它不依赖于 Layer 2 网络，这也让区块链对用户来说更加简单。

批评者认为，Solana 之所以能做到这一点，是因为它做出了一个关键的权衡：它更加中心化和脆弱。

尽管如此，它还是吸引了用户。在可编程区块链中，Solana 的稳定币流动性排名第三，仅次于以太坊和Tron；代币化资产排名第四。而且它增长迅速：今年迄今，其代币化资产管理规模（AUM）增长了 140%。其支持者认为，Solana 是唯一一个速度快到足以支持全球规模主要资产代币化的区块链。

与比特币和以太坊的一个关键区别

Solana 与比特币和以太坊有一个值得注意的主要区别：Solana 的规模相对较小。

截至 9 月 7 日，比特币的市值是 2.22 万亿美元，以太坊的市值是 5190 亿美元，而 Solana 的市值是 1160 亿美元。换句话说，Solana 的规模仅为比特币的 1/20，不到以太坊的 1/4。

按区块链的规模来看，相对少量的资金流入 Solana 就可能显著影响价格。例如，Forward Industries 购买 16 亿美元的 Solana，其影响相当于购买 330 亿美元的比特币。尽管 Solana 较高的年通胀率（约 4.3%）与比特币（0.8%）和以太坊（~0.5%）相比，在一定程度上抵消了这种影响。

但这个布局仍然极具吸引力。我的建议是？未来几个月，请密切关注 Solana。

注：

1. 值得注意的是，一种 Solana ETF 的版本——Rex-Osprey Staked Solana ETF（股票代码：SSK），已于今年早些时候推出，资产规模达到 2.2 亿美元。但该基金采用非传统结构，并非传统的现货加密 ETP。

2. 也有小型 Solana 财库公司存在，包括 SOL Strategies，该公司持有约 1 亿美元的 SOL。

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原文链接:https://experts.bitwiseinvestments.com/cio-memos/solana-season
说明: 比推所有文章只代表作者观点，不构成投资建议
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