End of Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle? Bitwise CIO Sees Safer Market Ahead Amid Rising Inflows and Altcoin Momentum

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For years, Bitcoin’s price behavior has followed a four-year cycle—halving events led to bull runs, followed by market corrections. But according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, that narrative no longer fits the current market landscape.

“The four-year cycle is dead,” Hougan told investors, pointing to deeper structural shifts shaping the next phase of crypto evolution.

Institutional Inflows and ETF Demand Reshape the Market

Instead of halving-driven volatility, the market is now being influenced by long-term capital inflows and regulatory progress.

The U.S.-approved spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $14 billion in net inflows, allowing mainstream investors to access crypto without managing private keys or exchanges. Hougan notes that institutions like pension funds and hedge funds are building sustainable positions, reducing reliance on retail speculation.

Adding to the momentum is the GENIUS Act, signed into law in early 2025, offering clearer guidelines for crypto operations in the U.S. This clarity has sparked a wave of institutional confidence, paving the way for strategic investments in both Bitcoin and Ethereum, which now has over 33 million ETH staked, according to BeaconScan.

Bitcoin price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview

Altcoins Like XRP Gain Momentum

With market cycles becoming less predictable, investors are focusing on altcoins with real-world utility. XRP, despite its lengthy legal battle with the SEC, has re-emerged as a strong contender.

Its growing adoption in cross-border payments and support from global financial entities, including investment interest from the UAE, position it as one of the top altcoins to watch. Some analysts believe XRP could surpass $5 in the coming cycle, driven by its enterprise use case and international traction.

Hougan sees 2026 as a potential breakout year, not for explosive spikes, but for durable, steady growth. For investors, this may trigger a shift from trying to time cycles to understanding long-term trends, and that could be crypto’s biggest adaptation yet.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

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