$3.04 billion in BTC Options expired with a Max Pain Price of $107K and a Put/Call Ratio of 0.95.
Spot and ETF inflows totaled over $1B in three days, but failed to trigger a bullish reversal.
Bitcoin [BTC] hovered above $100,000 this month, gaining just 1.29%. However, with billions in Options expiring, the calm might soon end.
AMBCrypto analysis indicates that while a major drop is more likely, some investors are attempting to resist the downward pressure.
Max Pain at $107K — but BTC’s already below it
Roughly $3.04 billion in BTC Options are set to expire today, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.95 and a Max Pain Price of $107,000.
A put-call ratio below 1, like in this case, suggests that more traders are holding buy (call) positions in the market.
However, Bitcoin’s price traded well below this max pain level at $104,682, creating a significant gap.
This implies that traders who dominate a large portion of the Notional Value are likely to record major losses, while short sellers stand to profit.
Typically, such a scenario pushes traders to open more short positions to hedge against losses, while others may choose to take profit.
AMBCrypto analysis confirms that this trend has already begun. In the past 24 hours, Options Open Interest (OI) has surged significantly.
OI has increased by 3.88% to $46.06 billion, indicating more contracts are being opened. Simultaneously, Trading Volume has spiked to $7.06 billion—a 107.64% increase.
This surge in both metrics, amid a declining price and $3.04 billion in contracts about to expire, suggests that more traders are leaning toward selling.
$422 million liquidated!
The bearish sentiment is also evident in the Futures market, which mirrors the Options market to some extent. In this case, the number of sellers has increased.
Liquidation data was one-sided. Longs took a $422.89 million hit over 24 hours, while shorts lost only $28.63 million.
Moreover, the Long/Short Ratio stood at 0.929—firmly below 1, confirming that sellers were in control.
Can traditional and spot investors save Bitcoin?
Interestingly, spot investors didn’t flinch. $150.70 million worth of BTC flowed into exchanges over 24 hours, while weekly accumulation crossed $651 million.
Traditional investors are also making moves.
At the time of writing, $86 million worth of Bitcoin was purchased across several Bitcoin spot ETFs, contributing to a cumulative $982 million in purchases over the past three days.
These large-scale buy-ins typically influence market sentiment positively and may eventually lead to a supply squeeze.
However, a significant market reversal—specifically a $3,000 recovery in Bitcoin’s price—seems unlikely before the Options expire.
If this reversal doesn’t occur, Bitcoin is likely to slide even lower.
