理性看待Memecoin与VC币,不要厚此薄彼

Odaily星球日报Опубликовано 2024-10-14Обновлено 2024-10-14

Введение

散户喜欢Memecoin,但不要完全抛弃VC币。

原文作者:hitesh.eth

原文编译:Luffy,Foresight News

我对 VC 币与 Memecoin 没有进行深入研究,这里我将根据自己的观察到的数据分享一个中立观点。请抛开对这两类代币的误解,不要盲目相信少数 KOL 的言论。

VC 币:基础坚实,未来可期

先给 VC 代币下一个简单的定义:超过 51% 的供应量分配给团队和投资者的代币。听起来很公平,对吧?

仔细观察大多数基础设施项目的代币经济学,如 EIGEN、SUI、APT、AVAIL、ZK、SEI,你会发现,它们很大一部分代币供应被分配给了社区和生态系统的增长。

这至关重要。对于基础设施项目来说,生态系统的健康状况是一切的驱动力。当激励措施令人信服时,DApp 就会迁移到这条新的链上。目前,一些 DApp(Aave、Uniswap、Curve)占据了主导地位。新生态系统的第一个挑战是吸引这些重要参与者加入,同时培育创新并激励开发者。激励措施推动了这一过程。

我们看到 Sui 和 Aptos 等项目明智地用代币供应激励生态系统发展。它们的生态出现了明显的增长,这种增长将不可避免地推动炒作,因为刺激生态系统增长的资金也用于激励营销人员和创作者扩大项目的知名度。这是一个反馈循环,来自上层的激励推动着营销漏斗,散户投资者则跟随炒作。

投资者解锁将按计划进行,但不要误解风险投资公司的行为。他们是为了长期利益而战,风险投资公司的目标是获得巨额回报,和散户一样。当 30% 的供应量用于推动项目的长期增长时,他们不会轻易退出。

他们知道如何转变思维并创造积极的反馈循环。比如 Sui,散户们几个月前还感到沮丧,但在财库拨款和公告发布后,代币价格开始上涨,Sui 社区如今一片欢呼。

散户需要保障、安全和较低的风险。VC 支持的代币,尤其是那些致力于生态系统发展和不断提升链上指标的代币,可以提供这些。

Memecoin:狙击手和流动性陷阱带来的短期狂热

Memecoin 是公平发行的,在代币生成事件(TGE)时就完全流通。但在 Memecoin 炒作中,每个人都公平的吗?

并不是。Memecoin 炒作由狙击手主导,他们抢夺廉价代币,而你成为他们的退出流动性。

然后,社区形成,有影响力的 KOL 从公开市场购买大量代币。游戏对每个人来说都是一样的,但信念却不一样。你可能以 2 倍的价格退出,但 KOL 在 10 倍价格时仍会持有,然后构建一个故事来支持他们的立场。

他们的目标是让散户相信故事,以至于不再考虑利润。那时流动性就会从去中心化交易所悄然退出,大玩家获利,散户却还不知道发生了什么。此时,你会意识到 Memecoin 与 VC 币并没有什么不同。

策略:两者都可参与,不要顾此失彼

散户喜欢潮流,而 Meme 就是潮流。如果你想交易它们,请按照自己的方式去做,不要听从 KOL 的建议。也不要完全抛弃 VC 代币,叙事可能会迅速转变。可悲的是,VC 币上涨时,你的资金被困在 Memecoin 中。

关键是要保持警惕。两边都玩,但不要对任何代币产生感情。大多数代币最终都会归零,所以务必在合适的时间准备退出。

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