# Bài viết Liên quan Short Selling

Trung tâm Tin tức HTX cung cấp những bài viết mới nhất và phân tích chuyên sâu về "Short Selling", bao gồm xu hướng thị trường, cập nhật dự án, phát triển công nghệ và chính sách quản lý trong ngành tiền kỹ thuật số.

Well-known Investor Targets Nvidia: AI Boom Overly Reliant on It

Renowned investors Mark Cuban and Michael Burry have issued warnings about Nvidia's central role in the AI ecosystem, drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble. Cuban expressed concerns that Nvidia, by financing its clients' purchases of its GPUs for data centers, has positioned itself as a critical but vulnerable linchpin in the AI boom. He warned that a breakthrough from a competitor or a single misstep could trigger a widespread collapse. Similarly, Michael Burry pointed to the parabolic rise in the cost of insuring Nvidia's debt (CDS) as a sign of market fears over the company's overextension. He suggested Nvidia has pushed cyclical spending to an epic scale through numerous financing deals, creating significant risk. Both investors cautioned that overinvestment in AI infrastructure and potential oversupply could lead to a painful downturn, with Burry also revealing he has increased his short position and holds put options against Nvidia.

marsbit13 giờ trước

Well-known Investor Targets Nvidia: AI Boom Overly Reliant on It

marsbit13 giờ trước

Bears tighten grip on AVAX as open interest rises alongside falling prices

Avalanche's AVAX token price dropped 4.91% in 24 hours, marking one of the largest declines among top cryptocurrencies. This decline occurred alongside a rise in Open Interest, a noticeable drop in spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), and funding rates turning negative, indicating strong bearish sentiment and heightened short-selling activity. The price fell below the crucial $6.50 local support zone, threatening to accelerate the downtrend toward $6.00 or lower. Despite a recent surge in on-chain transactions, AVAX has struggled to break the $7.08 resistance, solidifying a bearish market structure. With Bitcoin also trading below key support levels, overall market pressure is contributing to AVAX's weakness. A cluster of potential short liquidations in the $6.70-$6.85 zone presents a risk for a brief price rebound or short squeeze. Traders are advised to maintain a bearish outlook while remaining cautious of this potential volatility.

ambcrypto07/24 07:24

Bears tighten grip on AVAX as open interest rises alongside falling prices

ambcrypto07/24 07:24

Senior Trader's Confession: How to Trade Market's False Expectations?

Veteran trader's case study: trading the market's "wrong expectations". This trade centered on a textbook "expectation error" after a weak CPI report. While the market initially priced in broad monetary easing (sending Nasdaq to 30,060), the crucial 30-year real yield hit a 20-year high. This signaled a fractured transmission mechanism: short-term rates eased, but long-term funding costs (vital for tech valuations) refused to fall. The trader executed five short positions on the Nasdaq (NQ) as it fell from 30,060 to 28,768. The core methodology: don't just trade the data, but analyze the market's implied causal chain and identify where it breaks. In this case, the chain was: Weak CPI → Policy Easing → Lower Long-Term Funding Costs → NQ Valuation Expansion. The break occurred between policy easing and long-term rates. The "veto variable" – long-term real yields – refused to confirm the bullish narrative. Trades were structured around "fast variables" (price) temporarily repairing while "slow variables" (funding conditions) remained broken. The article outlines a repeatable framework: 1) Map the market's implied causal chain. 2) Identify the veto variable. 3) Observe if it rejects the narrative. 4) Enter when price still follows the old script. 5) Choose the cleanest asset expression (e.g., short NQ, not broad S&P). 6) Define both invalidation and fulfillment exit conditions. The key insight: Alpha often comes not from an information edge, but from a "reaction function edge" – recognizing when the market is applying an outdated causal logic to new data. The critical question: What causal chain is the market's first reaction relying on, and is that chain still valid today?

marsbit07/20 05:13

Senior Trader's Confession: How to Trade Market's False Expectations?

marsbit07/20 05:13

Why Not Short Even When Bearish? Munger Did the Math on a 'Losing Trade'

Why Not Short Even When Bearish? Charlie Munger's Calculated "Loss-Making Account" Many traders, drawn to speculative tools like futures contracts, often face repeated failures. As the article notes, unless one is a genius, such instruments should be avoided for long-term profit-seeking. Similarly, the practice of short selling is viewed with caution. The author firmly states a policy of not shorting, even when bearish, preferring to simply wait. The core reason? Successful short selling requires exceptionally difficult conditions to profit. Legendary investors Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have themselves reflected on painful short-selling experiences. Munger highlights two critical flaws in the mathematical logic of shorting: 1. Asymmetrical Risk/Reward: A long position has a maximum loss of 100% but unlimited upside. A short position caps profit at 100% (if a stock falls to zero) but carries theoretically unlimited loss potential. 2. The "Promoter" Problem: Fraudulent or struggling companies can prolong their decline. As Munger said, "You can run out of money before the promoter runs out of ideas," meaning short sellers may be forced to cover positions at a loss before the company's true fate unfolds. The article cites Stanley Druckenmiller, a famed hedge fund manager. He once shorted 12 companies that all eventually went bankrupt. However, intense market rallies forced him to cover his positions within three weeks, resulting in massive losses—$200 million of his capital plus an additional $600 million. He concluded he likely never made money shorting in his career. His experience perfectly illustrates Munger's points: facing unlimited losses and being wiped out before being proven right. The conclusion is clear: for most investors, complex instruments like short selling and derivatives are not viable paths to stable, long-term gains. Self-reflection is advised before repeatedly wasting time and capital on such speculative strategies.

marsbit06/03 02:35

Why Not Short Even When Bearish? Munger Did the Math on a 'Losing Trade'

marsbit06/03 02:35

Here’s Why Bitcoin Could Feel The Pressure From Surging US Equity Shorts

Bitcoin's recent pullback toward $75,000 may face further downside pressure due to developments in the U.S. stock market. An analyst warns that surging short interest in U.S. equities, now at historically high levels, could significantly impact Bitcoin. This activity reflects a complex market structure where institutional investors are increasing hedges while maintaining long positions, leading to high leverage. Concentration in AI mega-cap stocks is leaving other sectors vulnerable. Historically, Bitcoin has moved with U.S. equities during risk-off events, like the 2020 COVID crash. While it showed correlation with the S&P 500 from 2020-2022, a divergence has emerged since 2025. Bitcoin's recent volatility has been driven by its own factors like spot buying pressure and ETF inflows, suggesting it may be evolving into a hybrid asset class with its own market dynamics. However, it remains sensitive to broader macro liquidity conditions.

bitcoinist05/28 03:05

Here’s Why Bitcoin Could Feel The Pressure From Surging US Equity Shorts

bitcoinist05/28 03:05

Jane Street Sued: Suspected of Using Telegram Insider Information to Exit and Short Before Terra Collapse, Profiting $134 Million

Wall Street trading giant Jane Street Group is facing a lawsuit alleging it used insider information from a private Telegram channel with a former Terraform Labs intern to avoid losses and profit from the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May 2022. According to newly unsealed court documents, Jane Street allegedly sold nearly $192 million worth of the UST stable币 before its depeg, and then established short positions, netting approximately $134 million in profits. The suit, filed by Terraform's bankruptcy estate, claims the firm gained a critical "information advantage" through these private communications, allowing it to execute large sales, including an $85 million UST transaction on Curve Finance minutes after Terraform quietly withdrew liquidity. Jane Street has denied the allegations as "baseless" and moved to dismiss the case. A 2023 court ruling that classified UST and Luna as securities bolsters the legal basis of this suit.

marsbit05/22 04:53

Jane Street Sued: Suspected of Using Telegram Insider Information to Exit and Short Before Terra Collapse, Profiting $134 Million

marsbit05/22 04:53

"The Big Short" Prototype Doubles Down on AI Crash Bets: Continues Shorting NVIDIA, Palantir, While Buying Software Stocks

"Big Short" legend Michael Burry is ramping up his bet against the AI frenzy. While the Nasdaq hits record highs and Nvidia's market cap nears $5.3 trillion, Burry is maintaining and expanding his bearish positions. He continues to hold put options on Nvidia and Palantir, has added direct short positions in Palantir, and expanded puts on semiconductor ETF SOXX, Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ, and Oracle. Simultaneously, he is buying traditional software stocks like Adobe, Autodesk, Salesforce, and Veeva Systems, which he sees as unfairly punished by the AI narrative. This creates a complete long-short hedge portfolio betting on an "AI bubble repricing." Burry's thesis is that AI infrastructure is overbuilt, comparing Nvidia to Cisco during the dot-com bubble. He argues major cloud providers are extending GPU depreciation schedules to inflate profits and that demand projections are overly optimistic. While his Palantir short is currently profitable, his Nvidia puts are deeply underwater as the stock nears all-time highs. He remains undeterred, believing a market correction will see overvalued AI beneficiaries fall and oversold "AI loser" stocks rebound.

marsbit05/11 03:11

"The Big Short" Prototype Doubles Down on AI Crash Bets: Continues Shorting NVIDIA, Palantir, While Buying Software Stocks

marsbit05/11 03:11

The "Big Short" Prototype Makes a Major Bet: Shorting Nvidia, Going Long on Software Stocks 'Scared Away' by AI

'The Big Short' Legend Michael Burry Doubles Down on AI Bet: Shorts Nvidia, Buys Beaten-Down Software Stocks As the Nasdaq hits record highs and Nvidia's market cap nears $5.3 trillion, Michael Burry—famed for his 2008 subprime mortgage bet—is making a major contrarian move. He is significantly expanding his bearish wagers against the AI frenzy while buying traditional software stocks he believes have been unfairly punished. Burry's latest portfolio adjustments, revealed in his Substack column, include maintaining and increasing put options on Nvidia and Palantir. He has also initiated new short positions on Palantir and expanded bearish bets on the semiconductor ETF (SOXX), the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), and Oracle. Simultaneously, he is buying shares of software companies like Adobe, Autodesk, Salesforce, and Veeva Systems. He argues these stocks have been sold off due to "AI disruption" fears and technical selling pressure from private credit funds, not deteriorating fundamentals. Their valuations have fallen to multi-year lows. This creates a complete hedge: short the perceived "AI winners" and long the oversold "AI losers." Burry believes the current AI infrastructure spending boom mirrors the late-1990s internet bubble, with inflated demand projections and questionable accounting practices by large cloud customers extending GPU depreciation schedules. While his Palantir short is currently profitable, his Nvidia put options are deeply underwater as the stock trades near all-time highs. Burry remains steadfast, comparing Nvidia to Cisco during the dot-com era. He anticipates a broad repricing of the AI bubble, where overvalued beneficiaries fall and unfairly battered companies rebound.

marsbit05/10 03:06

The "Big Short" Prototype Makes a Major Bet: Shorting Nvidia, Going Long on Software Stocks 'Scared Away' by AI

marsbit05/10 03:06

VIRTUAL falls 12% – But THIS group of buyers could change everything

VIRTUAL token fell 12% in 24 hours, extending its weekly losses to 11% amid a broader crypto market downturn. The derivatives market saw a significant capital exit of $9.4 million, with a deeply negative funding rate indicating intense short positioning. However, a key group of spot buyers accumulated approximately $245,000 worth of VIRTUAL during the decline, suggesting confidence in its medium-term prospects and potentially cushioning further downside. Despite this accumulation, on-chain metrics weakened, with user activity and protocol revenue declining sharply. The asset's next major move will likely be determined by this tug-of-war between bearish derivatives traders and accumulating spot investors.

ambcrypto03/01 06:02

VIRTUAL falls 12% – But THIS group of buyers could change everything

ambcrypto03/01 06:02

The Most Short-Sell Targeted Company on Wall Street: How to Play 'Digital Credit' with Bitcoin?

Financial Times' Alphaville column reported that MicroStrategy holds the highest short interest (14% of market cap) among S&P 500 companies, ranking as Wall Street's most shorted stock. Despite crypto's mainstream adoption, critics like former Merrill Lynch executive Craig Coben argue that MicroStrategy’s business model—aggressively buying Bitcoin using raised capital and issuing high-yield perpetual preferred shares ("digital credit")—lacks sustainable cash flow and depends entirely on continuous financing and Bitcoin's perpetual appreciation. CEO Michael Saylor positions Bitcoin as "digital capital," the foundation for a broader monetary system including digital credit and currency. The company claims it can sustain this model unless Bitcoin falls below $8,000 for 4-5 years—a scenario that would cripple the entire crypto industry. While short-term liquidity isn’t imminently at risk, skeptics view MicroStrategy as an ideal hedge against Bitcoin downside. Saylor’s ambition to build a new monetary system using the very dollar he aims to disrupt illustrates the paradoxical nature of the strategy, which remains deeply tied to Bitcoin’s volatile price movements.

比推02/27 13:22

The Most Short-Sell Targeted Company on Wall Street: How to Play 'Digital Credit' with Bitcoin?