# Liquidity Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Liquidity", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Reviewing Past Bitcoin Bull Markets: Why the Four-Year Cycle Occurs and Is It Over?

The article examines Bitcoin's four-year market cycles, traditionally aligned with its halving events, and questions whether this pattern still holds. It outlines the typical cycle phases: accumulation (low volatility, long-term buying), pre-halving bullish anticipation, a parabolic bull run with retail FOMO and leverage, and a sharp correction leading to a bear market. Bitcoin halvings, which reduce mining rewards by half every four years, are highlighted as a core mechanism for creating scarcity, similar to precious metals. Past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) are reviewed, each driven by distinct catalysts (e.g., Mt. Gox collapse, ICO boom, COVID-19 stimulus) and ending with crashes exceeding 80%. Reasons for the cycle include the stock-to-flow model (measuring scarcity), market psychology/self-fulfilling prophecies, and global liquidity conditions. The current 2025 cycle is noted for unprecedented institutional involvement via ETFs and corporate treasuries, causing Bitcoin to hit new highs before the 2024 halving with less retail participation. Arguments for the cycle's end cite increased adoption by disciplined institutions (reducing volatility), Bitcoin's growing correlation with macro factors like Fed policy, and the diminishing impact of each halving. Key indicators to watch for cycle validation include post-halving price surges, large leverage unwinds, and retail altcoin speculation. The conclusion states that while historical patterns are evident, Bitcoin's evolution into a mainstream asset makes future cycles potentially different. Only time will tell if the four-year cycle persists or becomes obsolete.

marsbit12/16 06:26

Reviewing Past Bitcoin Bull Markets: Why the Four-Year Cycle Occurs and Is It Over?

marsbit12/16 06:26

From Yen Interest Rate Hikes to Mining Farms Shutting Down: Why Bitcoin Continues to Fall

This article analyzes the recent decline in Bitcoin's price, which fell to around $85,600, attributing it to a combination of macro-economic pressures. The primary factor is the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) anticipated interest rate hike, its first since January 2025. Historically, such hikes have triggered 20-30% Bitcoin sell-offs. As the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, Japan's policy shift could unwind massive yen carry trades, forcing global deleveraging and impacting risk assets like crypto. Uncertainty around the U.S. Federal Reserve's future rate-cutting path post its first cut is another key factor. Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data are critical; weak jobs data might make the Fed cautious, while sticky inflation could prompt faster balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening), effectively tightening liquidity. Finally, sustained selling pressure is evident from large outflows in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, significant BTC deposits to exchanges like Binance, and miner capitulation. Data shows long-term holders are accelerating disposals, and a reported shutdown of mining operations in Xinjiang, causing a 17% drop in network hash rate, confirms miner distress. These factors collectively create a bearish environment of tightening global liquidity and institutional selling.

marsbit12/16 03:59

From Yen Interest Rate Hikes to Mining Farms Shutting Down: Why Bitcoin Continues to Fall

marsbit12/16 03:59

Bitcoin Drops Below $86,000, But Is the Decline Just Beginning?

Bitcoin fell below $86,000 over the weekend, extending a broader correction that has seen it decline more than 30% since its mid-October all-time high. The broader crypto market followed, with Ethereum, BNB, XRP, and SOL all posting losses. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone issued a stark warning in a new report, suggesting Bitcoin could potentially fall to $10,000 by 2026. His bearish outlook is not based on crypto-specific factors but is rooted in a macro view of an impending global economic inflection point from inflation to deflation. McGlone argues that as liquidity tightens and growth slows, risk assets like Bitcoin—which he views as highly speculative and correlated to market sentiment—will undergo significant repricing. He highlights three key factors: a mean reversion after extreme wealth creation, the declining Bitcoin-to-gold ratio (which has already dropped ~40% this year), and systemic oversupply of speculative crypto assets competing for limited risk budgets. This view contrasts with other institutional forecasts. While firms like Standard Chartered have also lowered their long-term Bitcoin price targets, they remain significantly higher than McGlone’s prediction. Analytics platform Glassnode notes that current market stress is reminiscent of early 2022, with unrealized losses nearing 10% of market cap, indicating a sensitive but not yet panic-driven sell-off phase. The article concludes that Bitcoin's trajectory is now deeply tied to global macro conditions. Upcoming central bank decisions and economic data releases from the ECB, BOE, BOJ, and the U.S. will be critical in shaping expectations for monetary policy in 2026 and determining the direction of risk assets.

marsbit12/16 03:19

Bitcoin Drops Below $86,000, But Is the Decline Just Beginning?

marsbit12/16 03:19

Small-Cap Tokens Hit Four-Year Low, Is the 'Altcoin Bull Run' Completely Hopeless?

Small-cap cryptocurrency tokens have plummeted to multi-year lows, with indices tracking altcoins significantly underperforming both major cryptocurrencies and traditional equities. In 2024–2025, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 delivered strong double-digit returns with limited drawdowns, altcoin indices like the CoinDesk 80 and MarketVector Small-Cap Index fell sharply—by nearly 40% and to November 2020 lows, respectively. These altcoin indices showed high correlation (0.9) with large-cap crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum but delivered deeply negative returns, higher volatility, and worse risk-adjusted performance (negative Sharpe ratios). Liquidity is increasingly concentrated in high-value, institutionally supported assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL, and XRP, indicating a structural shift away from speculative small-cap tokens. The data suggests that altcoins offered no diversification benefits and instead magnified losses during a period of broader market growth.

marsbit12/16 00:06

Small-Cap Tokens Hit Four-Year Low, Is the 'Altcoin Bull Run' Completely Hopeless?

marsbit12/16 00:06

The $150,000 Collective Hallucination: Why Did All Major Institutions Get Bitcoin Wrong in 2025?

At the beginning of 2025, major institutions and analysts were overwhelmingly bullish on Bitcoin, with consensus year-end price predictions reaching $170,000 or higher, driven by three core narratives: the post-halving cycle effect, massive expected inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, and supportive regulatory policies under the Trump administration. However, by December, Bitcoin had fallen over 33% from its October peak to around $92,000, sharply contradicting these forecasts. The collective misjudgment stemmed from several critical errors. First, the market had already priced in ETF inflows, which later underperformed and even saw significant outflows. Second, historical cycle models failed as macro conditions diverged—unlike previous cycles, 2025 faced a hawkish Fed and high interest rates, undermining Bitcoin’s performance. Third, institutional analysts often had structural biases: many worked for firms with vested interests in promoting bullish narratives, leading to over-optimistic targets that served client interests and media attention rather than reality. Finally, Bitcoin’s misclassified as a inflation hedge like gold when it actually behaves more like a high-beta tech stock, highly sensitive to liquidity conditions. The episode underscores that precise price prediction is inherently flawed in a complex, multi-variable market. When consensus forms around a narrative, it often becomes a trap. The key lesson is the importance of independent thinking, valuing contrarian perspectives, and prioritizing risk management over speculative forecasts.

marsbit12/15 14:48

The $150,000 Collective Hallucination: Why Did All Major Institutions Get Bitcoin Wrong in 2025?

marsbit12/15 14:48

2025 Bitcoin Market Forecast Review: Why Institutions Collectively Crashed and Burned

In early 2025, Bitcoin was widely expected by major institutions—including VanEck, Standard Chartered, and Tom Lee—to reach $150,000 or higher by year-end, driven by post-halving cycles, ETF inflows, and favorable U.S. policy under Trump. However, BTC plummeted over 33% from its October high of $126,000, stabilizing around $92,000 by December. Most forecasts failed due to several critical misjudgments: ETF inflows were overestimated and even reversed to outflows; historical cycle models ignored drastically different macro conditions, including sustained Fed hawkishness; and institutional analysts had structural conflicts of interest, often promoting over-optimistic targets to align with business incentives. The episode underscores that consensus predictions often become traps, especially in a complex, macro-sensitive asset like Bitcoin. It highlights the importance of independent analysis, attention to contrarian views, and prioritizing risk management over speculative price targets.

marsbit12/15 12:21

2025 Bitcoin Market Forecast Review: Why Institutions Collectively Crashed and Burned

marsbit12/15 12:21

Crypto Prediction in the Gray Zone: Alliance Formation, Regulatory Pressure, and the Battle for the Future

The article "Encrypted Predictions in the Gray Area: Alliances, Regulatory Pressure, and Future Debates" discusses the recent formation of the "Prediction Market Alliance" by Kalshi and Crypto.com, joined by Coinbase, Robinhood, and Underdog. This alliance aims to unify the industry's voice and promote a balance between regulation, liquidity, and trust in the rapidly growing but legally ambiguous encrypted prediction market sector. Unlike traditional gambling, encrypted prediction markets operate on blockchain or crypto-based event-trading mechanisms. Users trade contracts on uncertain outcomes like elections or sports events, with prices reflecting collective market probability assessments. Key differences from traditional betting include market-driven pricing (rather than house-set odds), continuous trading opportunities, and a focus on information discovery rather than entertainment. The market is bifurcated into crypto-native platforms like Polymarket (global, blockchain-based) and regulated entities like Kalshi (U.S.-approved). While these markets are expanding quickly—evidenced by surging trading volumes around events like U.S. elections—they face significant challenges: regulatory uncertainty, liquidity instability (high activity around events but drops afterward), and disputes over outcome resolution standards. The alliance seeks to advocate for responsible and transparent development amid growing consumer interest and evolving regulations. However, major players like Polymarket, DraftKings, and FanDuel have not joined, indicating divergent strategies within the industry. The future of encrypted prediction markets hinges on achieving scalable liquidity and long-term trust within a regulatory-acceptable framework.

cointelegraph_中文12/15 09:34

Crypto Prediction in the Gray Zone: Alliance Formation, Regulatory Pressure, and the Battle for the Future

cointelegraph_中文12/15 09:34

Market Liquidity Survey: Under Diminishing Liquidity, Retail Investors 'Buy Lottery Tickets', Main Players 'Purchase Insurance'

Following the sharp market decline on October 11, the crypto market has entered a period of low activity and structural divergence. Analysis of order book depth, derivatives data, and stablecoin flows reveals a clear trend: liquidity is deteriorating, institutional players are adopting defensive strategies, while retail investors remain in a wait-and-see mode. Order book depth on major exchanges like Binance has weakened significantly, with both bid and ask liquidity thinning out. Altcoin open interest and trading volumes have also declined, indicating a lack of retail participation and speculative interest. A notable shift is observed in the options market. Bitcoin options now dominate trading activity, with put options—particularly those concentrated around the $85,000 strike—carrying significantly higher premiums than calls. This suggests that while retail traders are buying cheap, out-of-the-money call options (like “lottery tickets”), institutions are paying high premiums for downside protection, reflecting a bearish or defensive stance. The max pain point for December is around $100,000, indicating a key level where option sellers would profit most. Stablecoin data further highlights this divide. USDT reserves on exchanges have reached an all-time high, suggesting available capital from retail and non-compliant players waiting to enter. In contrast, USDC—predominantly used by U.S. institutions—has seen a sharp 40% withdrawal from exchanges, signaling institutional exodus or de-risking. Overall, the market shows fragile liquidity, major capital fleeing or hedging, and a cautious retail crowd. A break below the $85,000 support—where institutional puts are concentrated—may be more critical than any push toward $100,000.

marsbit12/15 09:29

Market Liquidity Survey: Under Diminishing Liquidity, Retail Investors 'Buy Lottery Tickets', Main Players 'Purchase Insurance'

marsbit12/15 09:29

Imbalance in Returns Amid High Correlation: Why is Capital Being 'Squeezed Out' of Altcoins?

Over the past year, a stark divergence has emerged between cryptocurrency and U.S. equity markets. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have posted significant gains, altcoins have experienced a severe downturn, indicating a structural shift of capital toward higher-quality assets. Major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose substantially in 2024 and 2025 with relatively low drawdowns. In contrast, the CoinDesk 80 Index, tracking altcoins outside the top 20 cryptocurrencies, plummeted over 46% in Q1 2025 and was down 38% year-to-date by mid-July. A key driver is the "return imbalance under high correlation." Despite a correlation of 0.9 between major cryptocurrencies (CoinDesk 5 Index) and altcoins (CoinDesk 80), their returns diverged drastically. The former gained 12-13%, while the latter fell nearly 40%. The risk-adjusted return gap is even wider. Altcoin indices showed volatility similar to or higher than equities but delivered deeply negative returns and negative Sharpe ratios. Over five years, a small-cap crypto index returned -8%, while a large-cap index surged 380%. Trading data shows capital is not exiting crypto but flowing up the quality curve. Volume is concentrating in the top 10 altcoins and "institutional-grade" assets like Solana and XRP with regulatory clarity. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are attracting sustained institutional inflows. Consequently, diversification into altcoins has lost its appeal. Their high correlation with major cryptos negates diversification benefits while adding risk. The market's logic has shifted: capital is now focused on regulated, liquid assets, squeezing out lower-quality altcoins.

marsbit12/15 09:08

Imbalance in Returns Amid High Correlation: Why is Capital Being 'Squeezed Out' of Altcoins?

marsbit12/15 09:08

Crypto Market Weekly Recap (12.08~12.14): Rate Cuts Support, Earnings Suppress, BTC Continues Narrow Fluctuations

Summary of Crypto Market Review (Dec 08–Dec 14): Bitcoin experienced narrow-range volatility, with its price floor supported by the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut and short-term liquidity improvements, while upward momentum was capped by weaker-than-expected earnings from AI tech stocks like Oracle and Broadcom. Both BTC and ETH attempted to break their mid-term bearish trendlines but ultimately retreated. BTC closed at $88,171, down 2.47% for the week. Macro factors included a slightly dovish Fed stance emphasizing data dependency, though internal dissent and a higher long-term neutral rate outlook limited optimism. AI stock underperformance weighed on high-beta assets, shifting some capital toward consumer and cyclical equities. Liquidity improved but remained tight. Crypto-specific developments saw institutional accumulation, with Strategy adding over $900M in BTC and positive ETF/ETH ETF inflows exceeding $500M. However, long-term holder selling continued, with over 157k BTC sold. Regulatory progress included CFTC’s digital asset collateral pilot and bipartisan support for crypto structural legislation. The market remains in a consolidation phase, with direction dependent on upcoming U.S. CPI, jobs data, and the Bank of Japan’s rate decision. The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator currently signals a bear market phase.

marsbit12/15 08:10

Crypto Market Weekly Recap (12.08~12.14): Rate Cuts Support, Earnings Suppress, BTC Continues Narrow Fluctuations