# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Liquidity

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Liquidity", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Crypto Market Weekly Recap (12.08~12.14): Rate Cuts Support, Earnings Suppress, BTC Continues Narrow Fluctuations

Summary of Crypto Market Review (Dec 08–Dec 14): Bitcoin experienced narrow-range volatility, with its price floor supported by the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut and short-term liquidity improvements, while upward momentum was capped by weaker-than-expected earnings from AI tech stocks like Oracle and Broadcom. Both BTC and ETH attempted to break their mid-term bearish trendlines but ultimately retreated. BTC closed at $88,171, down 2.47% for the week. Macro factors included a slightly dovish Fed stance emphasizing data dependency, though internal dissent and a higher long-term neutral rate outlook limited optimism. AI stock underperformance weighed on high-beta assets, shifting some capital toward consumer and cyclical equities. Liquidity improved but remained tight. Crypto-specific developments saw institutional accumulation, with Strategy adding over $900M in BTC and positive ETF/ETH ETF inflows exceeding $500M. However, long-term holder selling continued, with over 157k BTC sold. Regulatory progress included CFTC’s digital asset collateral pilot and bipartisan support for crypto structural legislation. The market remains in a consolidation phase, with direction dependent on upcoming U.S. CPI, jobs data, and the Bank of Japan’s rate decision. The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator currently signals a bear market phase.

marsbit12/15 08:10

Crypto Market Weekly Recap (12.08~12.14): Rate Cuts Support, Earnings Suppress, BTC Continues Narrow Fluctuations

marsbit12/15 08:10

Macro Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) Will Fall Below $70,000 Due to Japan's Hawkish Policy

Macro analysts warn that Bitcoin (BTC) could drop below $70,000 if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raises interest rates on Friday, December 19th. Historically, BoJ rate hikes have been a bearish signal for high-risk assets like Bitcoin. Analyst AndrewBTC highlighted that previous BoJ hikes in March 2024, July 2024, and January 2025 were followed by BTC price corrections of approximately 23%, 26%, and 31%, respectively. The core of this analysis is Japan's role in global liquidity. A rate hike typically strengthens the yen, increasing the cost of borrowing and investing in high-risk assets. This often forces traders to unwind "yen carry trades," reducing global market liquidity and putting downward pressure on Bitcoin as investors de-risk. Analyst EX stated that in this macro environment, Bitcoin would "break below $70,000." Technically, Bitcoin's daily chart shows a classic bear flag pattern forming after its sharp drop from the $105,000-$110,000 range in November. A confirmed break below the flag's lower trendline could trigger a new downwave with a measured target zone between $70,000 and $72,500, a level echoed by other analysts recently.

cointelegraph_中文12/15 07:44

Macro Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) Will Fall Below $70,000 Due to Japan's Hawkish Policy

cointelegraph_中文12/15 07:44

Small-Cap Tokens Hit Four-Year Lows: Is the 'Altcoin Season' Completely Lost?

Small-cap cryptocurrency tokens have plummeted to multi-year lows, with indices tracking altcoins outside the top assets by market cap showing severe underperformance in 2024–2025. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 delivered strong double-digit returns with limited drawdowns, the CoinDesk 80 Index (excluding the top 20 cryptocurrencies) fell nearly 40% by mid-2025, and the MarketVector Digital Assets 100 Small-Cap Index hit its lowest level since November 2020. Despite high correlation (0.9) with major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, small-cap tokens offered no diversification benefits and instead came with deeply negative risk-adjusted returns, high volatility, and severe drawdowns—often exceeding 30–46% in a single quarter. Liquidity has increasingly concentrated in high-value, institutionally accepted assets such as BTC, ETH, and a few altcoins like SOL and XRP, reflecting a flight to quality and regulatory clarity. The data suggests that, in the current cycle, broad altcoin exposure has failed to justify its risk, performing worse than both U.S. equities and core crypto assets.

深潮12/15 07:41

Small-Cap Tokens Hit Four-Year Lows: Is the 'Altcoin Season' Completely Lost?

深潮12/15 07:41

Weekly Outlook: Macro 'Data Deluge' Week: Delayed CPI and the Bank of Japan's 'Rate Hike Pursuit'

This week marks a critical period for global markets as a flood of delayed macroeconomic data and major central bank decisions converge, breaking months of uncertainty. The key events include the US Labor Department's release of two months of non-farm payroll data (October and November) on Tuesday, which is expected to show contradictory signals—a decline in October jobs followed by a rebound in November. This data may reveal structural weaknesses in the labor market, potentially triggering "recession trading" and risk-off sentiment. On Thursday, the delayed US November CPI report will be released. A higher-than-expected reading could signal premature Fed rate cuts and strengthen the US dollar, negatively impacting risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, softer inflation would support the case for further rate cuts. The Bank of Japan's meeting on Friday is another major event, with a 98% market probability priced in for a 25-basis-point rate hike. This divergence from global monetary policy could disrupt yen carry trade, potentially causing leveraged capital to exit crypto markets and testing Bitcoin's support near $88,000. Amid the macro turmoil, crypto institutions are pushing forward strategically. Coinbase plans to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks on Wednesday, aiming to integrate traditional equity liquidity into crypto. Also on Wednesday, HashKey Group is listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, seeking to raise up to HK$1.67 billion and boost confidence in Asian Web3 markets. Additional factors include US regulatory discussions and delays in South Korea’s stablecoin regulations, which may dampen retail investor participation. In summary, macro events will test market stability, while institutional developments could define crypto’s next growth phase. Traders are advised to monitor the DXY and USD/JPY closely and adopt a defensive stance ahead of Friday’s BoJ decision.

marsbit12/15 03:18

Weekly Outlook: Macro 'Data Deluge' Week: Delayed CPI and the Bank of Japan's 'Rate Hike Pursuit'

marsbit12/15 03:18

If MSCI Removes MSTR, Will the Stock Price Actually Fall? Historical Backtesting Reveals a Surprising Answer

The article examines whether MSCI's potential removal of MicroStrategy (MSTR) from its index would actually cause a significant drop in its share price, based on historical backtesting. MSCI index changes can trigger forced selling by passive funds, reducing liquidity and investor confidence. However, historical data from the November 2025 MSCI rebalancing shows that most of the price decline for removed stocks occurred during the pre-announcement anticipation phase (average drop of 24.5%), not after the official announcement (average drop of only 0.7%) or on the effective date. Some stocks even rebounded after removal. MSTR has already fallen 51% from its October high, suggesting the market may have already priced in the risk of removal. Additionally, Nasdaq 100's recent decision to retain MSTR indicates strong fundamentals and liquidity. The core driver of MSTR’s price remains Bitcoin’s performance. If MSCI retains MSTR on January 15, it could be a positive surprise. The current setup may present an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity for MSTR.

marsbit12/15 03:04

If MSCI Removes MSTR, Will the Stock Price Actually Fall? Historical Backtesting Reveals a Surprising Answer

marsbit12/15 03:04

Public Chain Moat Only 3/10? Alliance DAO Founder's Remarks Ignite Crypto Community Debate

Alliance DAO founder qw (@QwQiao) sparked intense debate in the crypto community by claiming that Layer 1 blockchains have "limited moats," rating them only 3/10 in terms of sustainable competitive advantage. This triggered strong reactions from key industry figures. Dragonfly Capital partner Haseeb strongly disagreed, arguing that Ethereum’s decade-long dominance despite well-funded challengers proves its strong moat. Others, like Multicoin’s Kyle Samani and researchers from Ethereum and Circle, questioned whether liquidity alone constitutes a real moat, with some calling it fleeting and unreliable. In response, qw elaborated on his moat rating framework, giving traditional giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Visa perfect scores (10/10) based on revenue models and infrastructure, while rating top crypto projects around 5/10. He notably rated Bitcoin at 9/10, citing its unique founding story and Lindy effect, but deducted a point due to uncertainties around security and quantum threats. The debate expanded into what truly constitutes a moat in crypto. Critics argued qw’s framework overemphasizes current revenue and undervalues network effects, trust, and technological ethos. Defenders of blockchain moats pointed to elements like developer ecosystems, brand strength, switching costs, and application diversity as core defensive attributes. The article concludes that the crypto industry is still young and small compared to traditional finance and tech giants. Rather than fixating on abstract moat concepts, the priority should be solving real user needs at scale, driving adoption, and expanding overall market reach.

marsbit12/13 03:06

Public Chain Moat Only 3/10? Alliance DAO Founder's Remarks Ignite Crypto Community Debate

marsbit12/13 03:06

The Fed's $40 Billion Treasury Purchases Are Not the Same as Quantitative Easing

The Federal Reserve's announcement of $40 billion monthly Treasury purchases has sparked market speculation about quantitative easing (QE). However, this program, termed Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), is functionally distinct from QE. While it meets the mechanical criteria of QE—large-scale asset purchases with newly created reserves—its purpose is stability, not stimulus. RMP aims to counteract liquidity drainage caused by tax season withdrawals into the Treasury General Account (TGA), preventing repo market stress like the 2019 crisis. It is liquidity-neutral, merely replacing lost reserves rather than expanding net liquidity. True QE would require either longer-duration asset purchases (e.g., bonds or MBS) or excess liquidity injection beyond system needs. The RMP signals Fed readiness to backstop liquidity, reducing tail risks and providing mild support for risk assets, but it is not a systematic easing tool.

深潮12/13 02:48

The Fed's $40 Billion Treasury Purchases Are Not the Same as Quantitative Easing

深潮12/13 02:48

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trend and Investor Sentiment Suggest a Bullish December

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of a potential bullish December, challenging a decade-old bearish seasonal pattern where November losses typically extend into year-end declines. Key factors supporting this shift include reduced leverage, with open interest dropping from $94 billion to $60 billion, and Bitcoin’s price reclaiming its monthly volume-weighted average price (rVWAP), indicating controlled distribution. Liquidity dynamics have also shifted, with deep liquidity clusters moving upward, and around $3 billion in short positions set to liquidate near $96,000. Market structure diverges from historical cycles due to spot ETF inflows, introducing constant structural demand and accelerating price discovery. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, while not obsolete, is no longer time-aligned, resembling extended accumulation phases like mid-2016 or late-2019. Macro liquidity (M2) growth has plateaued, creating a late-cycle environment where risk assets rally despite underlying economic softening. Supporting indicators, such as CNY/USD and ETH/BTC correlations, along with improving PMI data and gold’s relative strength, suggest continued risk-on momentum rather than cycle fatigue. While buy-sell ratios show urgency, analysts caution this may reflect positioning squeeze rather than sustainable accumulation. Overall, December’s performance may depend more on structural forces—ETF flows, liquidity rotation, and shifting macro correlations—than traditional halving-driven周期 patterns.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 12:20

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trend and Investor Sentiment Suggest a Bullish December

cointelegraph_中文12/12 12:20

Glassnode: Bitcoin Weak and Volatile, Big Fluctuations Coming?

Bitcoin remains trapped in a structurally fragile range, pressured by rising unrealized losses, elevated realized losses, and significant profit-taking by long-term holders. Despite persistent selling pressure, patient demand has anchored the price above the Realized Price (~$81.3K), though reclaiming the Short-Term Holder cost basis (~$102.7K) remains a key resistance level. On-chain metrics show increased capitulation from recent buyers and sustained distribution by long-term investors. Off-chain conditions are weak, with negative ETF flows, thin spot liquidity, and muted speculative interest in futures markets. Options traders are pricing in near-term volatility, accumulating downside protection ahead of the FOMC meeting. The market’s direction hinges on whether liquidity improves and selling pressure subsides, or if the current time-driven bearish pressure persists. Post-FOMC, implied volatility is expected to decay into year-end barring a hawkish surprise.

marsbit12/12 09:25

Glassnode: Bitcoin Weak and Volatile, Big Fluctuations Coming?

marsbit12/12 09:25

Despite Fed Policy Shift, Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Stalls at $94,000

Despite the Federal Reserve's policy pivot, Bitcoin's (BTC) rally continues to face resistance around the $94,000 mark. Even as traders grow optimistic about U.S. monetary policy and long-term crypto market prospects, BTC has struggled to break through this key level after multiple attempts. Key factors include significant liquidity contraction, particularly in stablecoin flows, which have dropped nearly 50% from August’s $158 billion to around $76 billion this month. This reduction in buying power has limited upward momentum. Analysts note that recent price rebounds were driven more by short-selling pressure easing rather than strong capital inflows. The $94,000 to $98,000 range remains a critical liquidity zone. However, failure to break above $94,000 could expose BTC to increased volatility and a potential drop toward $88,000. A break below this support might trigger further declines toward $84,000 or even the quarterly low near $80,600. While some traders view the current consolidation as a healthy shakeout of weak positions, Bitcoin must achieve a weekly close above $90,000 (ideally near $93,000) to rebuild structural support for a potential push toward $96,000.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 05:41

Despite Fed Policy Shift, Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Stalls at $94,000

cointelegraph_中文12/12 05:41

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