# Bubble Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Bubble", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

NVIDIA Begins Adding Soap to the Bubble

NVIDIA is taking on a dual role: not just as a leading chip supplier, but as a massive capital allocator across the entire AI supply chain. In 2026, the company has committed over $40 billion in investments within five months, targeting everything from optical fiber manufacturing and data center operations to foundational AI model development. This investment spree, described as a systematic "sprinkler" approach, primarily funds companies that are major buyers of NVIDIA's own GPUs. Critics, including analysts from Goldman Sachs, label this a "circular revenue" loop—comparable to a supplier financing a customer to buy more of its products. A prominent example is NVIDIA's investment in OpenAI, which is expected to generate around $13 billion in revenue for NVIDIA, much of which may be reinvested back into OpenAI. While CEO Jensen Huang dismisses the "circular financing" critique as "absurd," arguing the investments are confidence votes in long-term generational shifts, some analysts express discomfort. They note that while investments in critical supply chain components like optics are strategically sound, funding new cloud providers like CoreWeave feels like "pre-paying for your own GPUs." The strategy carries significant risks. If the AI investment cycle turns, the market may question how much demand is genuine versus artificially sustained by NVIDIA's own balance sheet. Despite posting record-breaking earnings—$215.9 billion in annual revenue and $120 billion in net profit for FY2026—NVIDIA's stock fell after its report, signaling that "beating expectations" may no longer be enough to assure investors about the duration of the AI spending boom. The article concludes that while a bubble isn't necessarily a fraud, NVIDIA's actions resemble adding soap to a bubble—making it appear more robust and durable. This creates a complex scenario requiring extreme冷静 from investors to distinguish between real structural growth and financial engineering.

marsbit05/12 07:29

marsbit05/12 07:29

"The Big Short" Burry and Legendary Investor Jones Warn in Unison: AI Frenzy Reminiscent of Pre-Crash 2000

Michael Burry, famous for predicting the U.S. housing market crash, warns that the current stock market obsession with artificial intelligence resembles the final stages of the dot-com bubble. In a recent post, Burry noted that financial media is dominated by AI talk, and markets no longer react logically to economic data like jobs reports or consumer sentiment. Instead, stocks are rising simply because they have been rising, driven by a widely accepted two-letter narrative—AI—akin to late 1999 and early 2000. He compared the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's sharp rally to the period just before the March 2000 tech crash. Similarly, legendary macro trader Paul Tudor Jones compared the AI-driven rally to the pre-dot-com bubble era of 1999, suggesting the bull market might have another year or two to run. However, he cautioned that if valuations continue to expand—potentially pushing the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio to 300-350%—a severe and dramatic correction would eventually follow. Both investors highlight the exuberant, speculative fervor around AI stocks, drawing parallels to past market manias preceding significant downturns.

marsbit05/11 02:54

"The Big Short" Burry and Legendary Investor Jones Warn in Unison: AI Frenzy Reminiscent of Pre-Crash 2000

marsbit05/11 02:54

Undercover in Crypto for 8 Years, 5 Jobs: The Revolution and Scam in My Eyes

"Undercover in Crypto for 8 Years, 5 Jobs: The Revolution and the Scam I Saw" In 2017, the author entered crypto believing it would revolutionize everything: replacing fiat, disintermediating finance, and shifting power to users. Eight years later, almost none of that has happened as predicted. The author worked at Circle, Messari, Coinbase, and Crossmint, witnessing the asset class grow from under $10B to over $4T, through multiple speculative bubbles and a near-systemic crisis. The journey began with the 2017-18 ICO frenzy, an "internet bubble 2.0" fueled by Ethereum. The promised "decentralized Uber" never materialized; instead, it was an era of greed, fraud, and rampant speculation where founders cashed out early. In the 2018-19 hangover, the focus shifted. The seeds of crypto's next phase were planted: stablecoins (like USDC) for borderless dollars and DeFi (decentralized finance) for rebuilding financial primitives like lending and trading on-chain. The COVID-19 pandemic and massive monetary stimulus triggered "DeFi Summer" in 2020-21. DeFi's value soared 250x to $180B, but it resembled a high-stakes game for mercenary traders with "food-themed" tokens. A new bubble formed around NFTs, with digital art selling for millions. The 2022 "crypto winter" mirrored the 2008 financial crisis. The collapse of the algorithmic stablecoin Terra (UST) triggered a chain reaction, bringing down hedge funds (Three Arrows Capital) and lending platforms (Celsius, Voyager). The final blow was the implosion of FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried, who had misused customer funds. This was crypto's "Lehman Moment." After the crash, the Biden administration's hostile regulatory crackdown under the SEC pushed innovation toward the legally safest, most absurd path: meme coins. The 2024 meme coin mania peaked at $150B before imploding. This political pressure, however, mobilized the industry. Donald Trump capitalized, promising a crypto-friendly stance, which many credit for helping him win the 2024 election. Trump's victory marked a turning point. A pro-crypto SEC chair took over, the "GENIUS Act" provided clear stablecoin rules in 2025, and institutional adoption accelerated. Circle (maker of USDC) IPO'd, and traditional giants like MoneyGram began using stablecoins for cross-border payments via firms like Crossmint. Looking back, the predicted consumer revolution (decentralized Uber) didn't happen. Instead, crypto built the plumbing for a new internet financial system. Each boom/bust cycle refined the infrastructure for global, 24/7 finance accessible to anyone online. The $300B+ stablecoin market, settling tens of trillions annually and creating demand for U.S. debt, is now a strategic U.S. priority. The future lies in convergence, not replacement. Crypto will be the backend, invisible to most users. The next frontier is integration with AI, where autonomous agents will use crypto wallets and stablecoins to transact. The result will be a global financial system equally accessible in New York or Nigeria, paving the way for countless new innovations.

marsbit05/09 10:20

Undercover in Crypto for 8 Years, 5 Jobs: The Revolution and Scam in My Eyes

marsbit05/09 10:20

Smart Money Hoards $40 Billion in Cash, Retail Bets $2.6 Trillion on Calls: The Critical Moment of the US Stock Market's AI Narrative

Title: Smart Money Hoards $40 Billion in Cash, Retail Traders Bet $2.6 Trillion on Call Options: The Tipping Point for the AI Narrative in U.S. Stocks The U.S. stock market is experiencing a striking divergence. While the S&P 500 hits new highs, the financial sector is down 6% year-to-date, underperforming more than during the 2008 and COVID crises. In contrast, a record $2.6 trillion in S&P 500 call options traded in a single day, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index RSI is at its highest since 1999. This reflects a clear split: "smart money" is retreating while retail traders chase gains. Key data points highlight this critical juncture in the AI-driven rally: 1. SoftBank had to cut its $10 billion loan target against its OpenAI stake to $6 billion, as lenders questioned the valuation of the private AI giant, signaling primary market skepticism. 2. The explosive $2.6 trillion daily options volume, with 60% being calls, is described by a Goldman Sachs partner as a "semi-irrational chase," drawing parallels to the 1999 tech bubble. 3. The financial sector's severe underperformance relative to the S&P 500 is a classic technical warning signal, indicating potential underlying economic stress. 4. Apollo Global Management, despite strong earnings, is building a $40 billion cash buffer in its insurance business, preparing for what its CEO calls a 30-35% probability of an exogenous shock from geopolitics, inflation, and AI's economic disruption. 5. Consumer behavior mirrors this split: while Whirlpool plunged on a worsening macro outlook for big-ticket items, DoorDash rose on strong demand for small, immediate services. Together, these conflicting signals from primary markets, secondary markets, leading sectors, and top institutions suggest market risk premia have compressed to a precarious level. The current price action may be increasingly reliant on speculative sentiment rather than fundamental support, marking a potential tipping point for the AI investment narrative.

marsbit05/09 07:40

Smart Money Hoards $40 Billion in Cash, Retail Bets $2.6 Trillion on Calls: The Critical Moment of the US Stock Market's AI Narrative

marsbit05/09 07:40

Legendary Investor: 'Absolutely No Way' for Walsh to Cut Rates, AI Bull Market Could Last 1-2 More Years

Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones says incoming Fed Chair Wash is highly unlikely to cut rates and could even consider raising them, citing FOMC pushback and persistent inflation. He remains bullish on the AI-driven stock market rally, comparing it to historical tech revolutions like Microsoft's founding (1981) and the commercialization of the internet (1995). Jones believes this AI bull market is only about 50-60% complete and could continue for another 1-2 years, though he warns the current period resembles the late stages of the 1999 dot-com bubble, setting the stage for a potential sharp correction if valuations become extreme. He also cautions that AI requires eventual government regulation to mitigate long-term risks.

marsbit05/08 15:44

Legendary Investor: 'Absolutely No Way' for Walsh to Cut Rates, AI Bull Market Could Last 1-2 More Years

marsbit05/08 15:44

Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank: One Must Die

Berkshire and SoftBank: A Tale of Two Extremes The article presents a speculative future (set in 2026) contrasting the investment philosophies and potential fates of Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank Group. Under new CEO Greg Abel, Berkshire sits on a massive cash pile of nearly $400 billion, built by selling assets like Apple stock over many quarters. Buffett and now Abel deem the market overvalued and refuse to invest, leading to significant underperformance. The "disease" of too much cash poses an existential threat to Berkshire's identity as a capital allocator, potentially forcing a future breakup or special dividend if the bull market persists. Its "death" would be a slow, dignified fading of its legendary investment narrative. In stark contrast, SoftBank's Masayoshi Son is all-in on a high-stakes gamble. To fund a colossal $64.6 billion (and growing) investment in OpenAI, SoftBank has aggressively leveraged itself. It has sold core holdings like Nvidia, T-Mobile, and Alibaba, taken on over $100 billion in parent-level debt, and secured a record $40 billion bridge loan. The survival strategy hinges on a successful OpenAI IPO and the high valuation of its Arm holdings. However, this creates multiple interconnected risks: an OpenAI IPO delay, a correction in Arm's lofty valuation, or a credit market freeze. Any of these could trigger a liquidity crisis. SoftBank's potential "death" would be swift and dramatic. The core thesis is that in this speculative market, one extreme strategy—Berkshire's paralyzing caution or SoftBank's all-or-nothing leverage—will likely prove unsustainable. One may lose its soul, the other may face financial rupture.

链捕手05/08 06:14

Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank: One Must Die

链捕手05/08 06:14

The US Stock Market in 2026, It's Almost Too Easy, and That Makes Me Nervous

The U.S. stock market's performance in 2026, particularly in the semiconductor memory sector, has generated significant returns that make some investors uneasy. A popular sentiment contrasts the perceived skill required for success in China's A-shares with the apparent ease of profiting from simply holding U.S. stocks. The primary driver is a global memory chip boom. Stocks like Micron, Seagate, Western Digital, and especially SanDisk (spinning off from WDC in 2025) have skyrocketed, with some gains exceeding 500% or even 2200%. Korean giants Samsung and SK Hynix, dominating their domestic index, have also surged. This rally is fueled by an AI-driven demand surge for memory like HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory), critical for AI chips. Tech giants like Google and Microsoft are placing massive, "unpriced" orders, while analysts continuously upgrade forecasts. SK Hynix reported its 2026 HBM capacity is already sold out. Despite record profits and sky-high margins (e.g., SK Hynix's 72% operating margin), major memory manufacturers are deliberately restricting capital expenditure and capacity expansion, controlling over 90% of DRAM supply. This supply discipline sustains high prices but draws parallels to cartel behavior. The situation presents two narratives. The bullish case sees AI demand as a structural, long-term shift with a prolonged supply gap. The bearish case, exemplified by short-seller Citron's failed bet against SanDisk, warns of a classic commodity cycle where prices eventually crash rapidly, as seen historically. The irony is noted: while retail investors marvel at easy gains, insiders like Western Digital are selling SanDisk shares at a 25% discount. Ultimately, the high cost of memory in consumer devices feeds into the record profits of memory companies and the soaring stock prices, leading many to question the sustainability of a market where making money seems "as easy as breathing."

marsbit05/08 02:57

The US Stock Market in 2026, It's Almost Too Easy, and That Makes Me Nervous

marsbit05/08 02:57

GMO Legendary Prophet Shorts Again: AI Can't Save U.S. Stocks, Current Market as Dangerous as 2000

Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO and renowned for identifying major market bubbles, warns that the current U.S. stock market resembles the dangerous conditions of 2000, arguing that AI hype cannot prevent a significant downturn. He emphasizes that high valuations historically precede difficult periods, not higher growth, and cautions that despite AI-driven enthusiasm, underlying economic challenges—including geopolitical instability, climate costs, and demographic decline—are being ignored. Grantham notes that while non-U.S. equities appear reasonably priced, the U.S. market is excessively valued. He compares today’s AI narrative to the internet boom of 1999, stressing that expensive markets eventually correct. His approach relies on value investing principles, avoiding overpriced assets and focusing on long-term fundamentals rather than market timing. Grantham also highlights structural market inefficiencies, such as the persistent outperformance of high-quality stocks, and criticizes the financial industry for promoting optimism despite clear risks.

marsbit04/21 10:35

GMO Legendary Prophet Shorts Again: AI Can't Save U.S. Stocks, Current Market as Dangerous as 2000

marsbit04/21 10:35

Fermi Crisis: A Case Study of an AI Power Stock's Sudden Decline

The article "Fermi Crisis: A Case Study of an AI Power Stock's Collapse" details the rapid rise and fall of Fermi, a company that promised to build the world's largest AI data center campus in Texas. Despite having zero revenue, tenants, or a finished product, it raised $785 million in its October IPO, with its market cap peaking at $12.5 billion. However, its stock plummeted from $37 to $5.40 within months. The collapse began when its anchor tenant, believed to be Amazon, terminated its contract after promised funding failed to materialize. Construction halted as lease terms forbade building without a tenant. The simultaneous departure of the CEO and CFO, alongside insider stock sales totaling $68 million, accelerated the decline. A short-seller report highlighted the CEO's history of alleged fraud at a previous venture. Fermi is presented as a symptom of a broader AI infrastructure bubble. A significant gap exists between announced data center projects and those under construction, hampered by severe supply chain delays for critical components like transformers. While tech giants plan massive investments, many projects face cancellation or indefinite delays. The article warns that Fermi's story may be repeated, as many ventures are built on speculative narratives rather than deliverable infrastructure.

marsbit04/21 08:40

Fermi Crisis: A Case Study of an AI Power Stock's Sudden Decline

marsbit04/21 08:40

US Stocks in the 'Largest Bubble in History' Zone? Four Major Valuation Indicators Flash Red Simultaneously

U.S. stock market valuations are flashing multiple warning signs, with key indicators reaching historic highs. The S&P 500's CAPE ratio has hit 39, a level only surpassed during the 2000 dot-com bubble. The "Buffett Indicator" (market cap to GDP) has soared past 230%, an all-time high. Furthermore, market concentration is extreme, with the top 10 stocks comprising over 35% of the index's weight and the "Magnificent 7" alone accounting for over 30%. Wall Street is deeply divided on the implications. The bearish camp, including figures like Jeremy Grantham, warns this is an AI-driven bubble, pointing to massive losses at companies like OpenAI and classic late-cycle signals. They caution that high valuations historically lead to poor future returns and significant corrections. The bullish camp argues that strong earnings justify the premiums. Analysts project 17.6% profit growth for the S&P 500 in 2026. Firms like BlackRock contend the rally is earnings-driven, and historical patterns suggest bull markets can continue. Geopolitical risks, such as the Iran conflict pushing oil above $100, and a hesitant Fed add further uncertainty. The market is at a crossroads: whether AI-driven profits will validate high valuations or if a major correction is imminent.

marsbit04/16 02:38

US Stocks in the 'Largest Bubble in History' Zone? Four Major Valuation Indicators Flash Red Simultaneously