# Bubble Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Bubble", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Seeking Alpha's Hot Article: Why Might the U.S. Stock Market Crash in June?

In a recent Seeking Alpha article, financial professor and analyst Damir Tokic argues that the US stock market may be poised for a significant crash in June 2026. The core thesis centers on a "mega-bubble" in equities, particularly within the technology sector, which has driven the S&P 500 to near-record valuations, with a Shiller P/E ratio exceeding 40—a level comparable to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Tokic identifies two primary catalysts for a potential collapse. First, he points to unsustainable market exuberance fueled by what he terms the "Trump Stimulus"—massive AI capital expenditure by tech giants, which he believes is politically driven and cannot last. Second, and more urgently, he highlights the escalating Iran war as a critical threat. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a severe global energy supply crunch. Strategic petroleum reserves are projected to hit critically low operational levels by June, potentially causing oil prices to spike above $200 per barrel and triggering a severe, supply-driven inflationary shock. This scenario, Tokic warns, would force the Federal Reserve's hand. Despite currently maintaining a dovish bias, the Fed would likely be compelled to officially pivot to a hawkish stance at its June FOMC meeting to combat soaring inflation and bond yields. He contends that such a shift—or even a failure to act, which would destroy Fed credibility—could be the trigger that punctures the market bubble. The resulting downturn, he concludes, could rival the bear markets of 2000 and 2008, advising investors to prepare for a major correction.

marsbit06/04 07:24

Seeking Alpha's Hot Article: Why Might the U.S. Stock Market Crash in June?

marsbit06/04 07:24

AI Bubble Warning: AI Investments Are Negative Returns for Most Tech Giants

The article issues a stark warning about a potential AI investment bubble. It notes that while the AI boom shares similarities with the TMT bubble of the late 1990s, its scale is vastly larger, currently driving 93% of U.S. GDP growth. Major hyperscale cloud providers like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle are planning to invest trillions in AI data centers over the coming years. However, calculations based on analyst projections for 2025-2030 reveal a concerning math problem: expected capital expenditure growth far outpaces projected revenue growth. Even under an extremely optimistic scenario of zero costs, the implied return on investment for most of these tech giants (except Amazon) is deeply negative. This suggests that the current trajectory could lead to one of history's largest shareholder value destruction events. The piece outlines two potential escapes: AI generating vastly more revenue than currently anticipated—a near-impossible task—or a significant cutback in the planned investment splurge. The latter scenario could trigger a domino effect, severely impacting the entire tech supply chain (from Nvidia to TSMC), potentially pushing the U.S. economy into recession, and causing a major stock market downturn. The author suggests upcoming high-profile IPOs by companies like OpenAI and Anthropic might represent a transfer of risk from early investors to public market participants. While the peak of the hype cycle might sustain investment through 2026, the fundamental financial dilemma remains unresolved, setting the stage for a potential market correction in 2027 or 2028, similar to the years following Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" warning.

marsbit05/31 12:43

AI Bubble Warning: AI Investments Are Negative Returns for Most Tech Giants

marsbit05/31 12:43

Trillion-Dollar Euphoria for Memory Sellers, Halved Profits for Memory Buyers

Title: The Trillion-Dollar Memory Seller's Carnival vs. The Buyer's Halved Profits On May 26, a stark contrast unfolded. While memory chipmaker Micron's market cap surged past $1 trillion, smartphone maker Xiaomi reported plummeting profits. Xiaomi's Q1 2026 profits fell 43% year-on-year. Executive Lu Weibing cited memory prices quadrupling from last year, adding roughly $210 to a phone's cost. To survive, Xiaomi is cutting entry-level models, sacrificing volume. Micron's stock, however, skyrocketed over 19% in a day, capping an 8x gain in a year. Major banks like UBS and JPMorgan issued bullish reports, raising price targets drastically. Their core thesis: Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) with AI cloud giants (Microsoft, Google, etc.) are eliminating the memory industry's notorious boom-bust cycle. By locking in fixed-price, multi-year contracts for AI-grade memory (HBM, server DDR5), these deals promise stable, utility-like earnings, justifying a higher valuation (20-30x P/E vs. the historical 8-15x). The article reveals a three-tiered memory market in 2026: 1) **AI Storage (HBM/DDR5/Enterprise SSD)**: Extreme shortage, soaring prices, LTAs. This is Micron's story. 2) **Mobile/Embedded Memory**: Also facing sharp price hikes as AI production crowds out capacity, severely pressuring phone makers like Xiaomi. 3) **PC Retail**: Some spot prices are falling due to channel inventory liquidation, creating a divergence from contract markets. The author questions if LTAs truly end the cycle. It hinges on sustained, hyper-growth AI demand. Micron's current profits are at a cycle peak, driven mostly by price hikes, not volume. If AI capital expenditure growth slows, the massive industry capacity expansion (e.g., Micron's $250B+ CapEx plan) could lead to a glut. Historically, using peak-cycle earnings for valuation is a classic trap. While the AI-driven structural shift might be real, the unanimous Wall Street euphoria warrants caution, echoing past bubbles like Cisco's in 2000. The memory seller's trillion-dollar狂欢 (carnival) continues, but the cycle's shadow remains.

链捕手05/27 11:48

Trillion-Dollar Euphoria for Memory Sellers, Halved Profits for Memory Buyers

链捕手05/27 11:48

Raised $1.3 Billion in Seven Weeks, Yet SpaceX's Weighting Halved: The Dilution Trap of the NASA ETF

A new ETF named NASA, launched just seven weeks ago, has rapidly become the world's largest space-themed fund, amassing $1.3 billion in assets. Its primary draw is its unique position as a "pure" space ETF holding SpaceX stock through a special purpose vehicle (SPV). However, its exposure to SpaceX has been drastically diluted from 10.3% to 4.6% due to a massive, rapid inflow of investor cash. New money is forced into buying other public space stocks like Rocket Lab, meaning investors seeking SpaceX exposure end up with a portfolio of other companies. Further complications arise from the SPV's valuation mechanism, which only updates during specific manager trades, potentially lagging behind SpaceX's market price. This SPV will also face a six-month lock-up post-IPO, preventing investors from selling that portion if SpaceX shares drop after listing. The article highlights a valuation bubble in the broader space sector, with stocks like Planet Labs surging nearly 1000% in a year, driven more by the "SpaceX IPO narrative" than underlying fundamentals. Meanwhile, SpaceX's own financials show significant losses in 2024, and its record-breaking IPO valuation bundles its space business with other Musk assets like xAI, creating a complex investment proposition. The core warning is that the NASA ETF essentially uses SpaceX as bait but delivers a different product. The real beneficiaries may be the ETF issuers collecting high fees, while investors face dilution and hidden risks ahead of SpaceX's historic IPO on June 12th.

marsbit05/25 08:34

Raised $1.3 Billion in Seven Weeks, Yet SpaceX's Weighting Halved: The Dilution Trap of the NASA ETF

marsbit05/25 08:34

Silicon Bull, Carbon Bear: The Wealth Code of 2026 is Only 'Chips' and 'Light'

The article, titled "Silicon Bull, Carbon Bear: In 2026, the Wealth Code Lies Only in 'Chips' and 'Optics'", discusses the extreme market divergence in 2026 driven by the AI investment frenzy. Investment managers who concentrated on the AI hardware supply chain, particularly computing infrastructure, optical modules, and memory chips, have seen their fund net asset values (NAVs) surge dramatically, even reaching record highs. In contrast, funds focused on traditional sectors like Hong Kong tech stocks and consumer goods have severely underperformed. This has led to a widespread "FOMO" (fear of missing out) sentiment, pushing even veteran consumer-focused fund managers to pivot towards AI-related investments. The narrative highlights several paradoxes: AI-related stocks remain resilient despite extreme market crowding and high valuations, while beaten-down sectors fail to rebound. The author dubs this split market "Silicon Bull, Carbon Bear," suggesting a bull market only for those invested in silicon-based tech (AI hardware) and a bear market for carbon-based traditional economy sectors. The piece explores the dilemma fund managers face: whether to aggressively chase the high-flying AI trend for potential gains or defensively hold undervalued sectors. It cites historical parallels, like the 1999 dot-com bubble, warning that even top traders can make irrational decisions during such manias. Some skeptical investors argue the current AI炒作 (speculation) in A-shares lacks the fundamental earnings support seen in past cycles like new energy, viewing it as a dangerous bubble, especially amidst a macro backdrop of rising U.S. bond yields. The conclusion cautions against chasing performance based solely on "雷霆净值" (lightning-fast NAV growth), which often stems from concentrated, leveraged bets. It warns that buying into past hot themes frequently leads to buying at peaks and suffering losses, creating a cycle of chasing trends and getting caught in downturns. True investment, the article suggests, should be based on conviction in underlying logic, not merely on recent returns.

marsbit05/21 07:46

Silicon Bull, Carbon Bear: The Wealth Code of 2026 is Only 'Chips' and 'Light'

marsbit05/21 07:46

Nvidia's Wednesday Earnings Night: The Battle That Decides the Fate of the AI Bull Market is Here

NVIDIA is set to report its quarterly earnings after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday, May 20. This event is widely seen as a crucial test for the current AI-driven bull market. The semiconductor sector is exhibiting severe technical overbought conditions, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) trading approximately 60% above its 200-day moving average—the most extreme deviation since the dot-com bubble peak of 1999/2000. Market sentiment is highly concentrated on a few AI-related stocks, raising concerns about overall market breadth. Analysts highlight a key contradiction: while fundamentals for AI and semiconductors remain strong, significant technical pressures are building. Option market activity reflects this tension. Positions are heavily skewed towards bullish calls, yet there is also notable hedging activity through put options on broad indices and sector ETFs, signaling preparation for potential downside volatility. An unusual pattern of rising stock prices alongside rising implied volatility further underscores the market's expectation for a major move. For NVIDIA specifically, the market's primary focus will be on its forward guidance for the next quarter, which is deemed more critical than the immediate earnings results. Despite a recent seven-day rally adding roughly $1.7 trillion in market cap, historical data shows NVIDIA's stock has often declined the day after its past five earnings reports. The outcome of this report is expected to have a significant ripple effect across the broader technology and semiconductor markets, given NVIDIA's pivotal role.

marsbit05/18 12:02

Nvidia's Wednesday Earnings Night: The Battle That Decides the Fate of the AI Bull Market is Here

marsbit05/18 12:02

When the Bubble Comes, How to Short "Smartly"?

Title: When the Bubble Comes, How to "Smartly" Short? Author: Campbell (Macro Analyst) Summary: Amid the heated debate over whether the current AI-driven market is in a bubble, analysts are divided. While some, like Dan Niles and Paul Tudor Jones, argue that the AI boom has further to run, Michael Burry warns of similarities to the dot-com bubble. The author explores practical strategies for navigating and potentially shorting a bubble without being crushed by its momentum. Key challenges in shorting a bubble include the exponential risk from parabolic price increases and the high cost of options due to extreme volatility. Instead of directly shorting the bubbly asset, the author proposes three approaches: 1. **Find the "Wedge"**: Identify external factors that could pop the bubble, such as rising interest rates. By betting on trends that could undermine the bubble (e.g., inflation or higher rates), investors can hedge without timing the bubble's collapse. 2. **Short the "Victims"**: Target assets adjacent to the bubble that are highly vulnerable to its burst, such as over-leveraged companies or sectors with "negative convexity." These assets may have cheaper options and suffer disproportionately when the bubble stalls. 3. **Wait for Confirmation**: Exercise discipline and wait for clear signals of a breakdown, including deteriorating fundamentals, exhausted buying sentiment, and decisive breaks in trendlines. Only then should investors take substantial short positions. The author shares their recent actions, including shorting SPX and high-yield bonds while buying short-term put spreads, and emphasizes avoiding direct shorts on vertically rising assets. The core takeaway: Hedge, identify wedges, wait for confirmation, and only then commit heavily.

marsbit05/14 08:57

When the Bubble Comes, How to Short "Smartly"?

marsbit05/14 08:57

How the $900 Billion Anthropic Was Built?

Anthropic, the AI startup behind Claude, is reportedly in early talks to raise at least $30 billion in new funding, targeting a valuation exceeding $900 billion. This would propel it past OpenAI's recent $852 billion valuation. The funding round is expected to close by late May 2026. The company's valuation surge is driven by extraordinary revenue growth, reportedly reaching an annualized $30 billion by March 2026 from $1 billion in December 2024. However, OpenAI questions this figure, suggesting a net revenue closer to $22 billion after cloud platform fees. Despite high revenue, Anthropic's gross margin is reportedly around 40%, and it is not yet profitable, with breakeven projected for 2028. A significant portion of the new capital would fund massive, pre-committed computing infrastructure with partners like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. This highlights a new AI financing model where high valuations fuel compute spending, which in turn requires even higher future valuations to sustain. Notably, many early-stage investors are reportedly sitting out this round. Bankers privately estimate a potential IPO valuation between $400-500 billion, creating a rare scenario where the final private funding round valuation ($900B+) could far exceed the expected public market debut. Anthropic is targeting an IPO between October 2026 and the first half of 2027. Its public listing is poised to be a critical test for the entire AI sector's valuation logic, potentially validating or challenging the high-stakes "valuation-compute-valuation" cycle that has defined private market investments.

链捕手05/13 02:42

How the $900 Billion Anthropic Was Built?

链捕手05/13 02:42

Arthur Hayes' Latest In-Depth Article: Forget Wars and Inflation, the AI Bubble Is the Biggest Opportunity

In his latest article "The Butterfly Touch," Arthur Hayes argues that the massive capital expenditure (CAPEX) fueling the global AI race, driven by US-China technological competition and nationalism, is creating unprecedented dollar and renminbi liquidity. This monetary expansion, combined with inflationary pressures from geopolitical conflicts like the US-Iran war, is creating a perfect environment for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Hayes believes foreign nations, threatened by supply chain disruptions, will increasingly shift savings from dollar assets to real infrastructure and commodities, forcing the US to maintain loose financial conditions to support its markets. He predicts Bitcoin, backed by "trillions of dollars and yuan that have yet to be printed," is poised for a significant rally, potentially back to $126,000, with the bullish trend accelerating past $90,000. While acknowledging a potential shift in US political sentiment against AI and inflation around the 2028 election, Hayes remains aggressively bullish for now. He advocates investing in cryptocurrencies, specifically mentioning his allocations to Hyperliquid ($HYPE), Zcash ($ZEC), and an upcoming focus on $NEAR due to its "privacy narrative" and potential for a major rally.

marsbit05/12 11:39

Arthur Hayes' Latest In-Depth Article: Forget Wars and Inflation, the AI Bubble Is the Biggest Opportunity

marsbit05/12 11:39

Arthur Hayes' Latest Long-Form: The AI Bubble Represents the Biggest Opportunity

Arthur Hayes argues that the AI investment boom, driven by massive government and corporate capital expenditure (CAPEX) for geopolitical and technological supremacy, represents a historic opportunity for cryptocurrency. He believes the unprecedented money printing by central banks (especially the US and China) to fund this AI arms race, combined with inflationary pressures from global conflict and a shift away from "just-in-time" global supply chains, creates a perfect environment for Bitcoin and crypto assets to thrive. Hayes predicts Bitcoin will surge past $126,000, fueled by this liquidity. He identifies two potential triggers for an AI bubble collapse: a massive, failed AI-related IPO/merger or a political shift against AI and inflation during the 2028 US election. Until then, he advocates aggressive investment in Bitcoin and specific altcoins like NEAR, Hyperliquid ($HYPE), and Zcash ($ZEC), viewing the current period as a prime bullish phase.

链捕手05/12 11:05

Arthur Hayes' Latest Long-Form: The AI Bubble Represents the Biggest Opportunity