The Four-Year Cycle Concludes, Crypto Market Embarks on a Decade-Long Protracted War
In a recent article, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan addresses the question of whether Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle—characterized by three years of gains followed by a crash in the fourth—remains relevant. He argues that the cycle, driven by factors like Bitcoin halvings, interest rate spikes, and post-bubble crashes, is losing significance due to changing conditions. The 2026 halving may have reduced impact, interest rates are likely to decrease, and the market hasn’t seen the extreme euphoria of previous cycles. Instead, Hougan proposes a "decade-long grinding advance" as the new framework, where sustained positive forces—such as institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and real-world applications like stablecoins—gradually outweigh intermittent negative shocks like macroeconomic events or leverage-induced selloffs. This shift suggests more moderate long-term returns, lower volatility, and periodic 20-40% corrections, marking a maturation of the crypto market since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. Investors should expect a prolonged tug-of-war between these forces, requiring patience and a focus on fundamentals despite short-term downturns.
marsbit12/24 12:01
