Odaily invited market analyst Conaldo, a Master of Financial Statistics from Columbia University, who has focused on quantitative trading in U.S. stocks since college and gradually expanded into digital assets such as Bitcoin. He has developed a systematic quantitative trading model and risk control system through practical experience; possesses keen data insight into market fluctuations, and is committed to continuous growth in the professional trading field, pursuing steady returns. He will delve into BTC technical, macroeconomic, and capital flow changes weekly, review and showcase practical strategies, and preview noteworthy upcoming events for reference.
Trading Weekly Report Core Summary:
• Strategy Execution (Short-term): Last week's trading strictly followed the established strategy, completing one short-term operation (1x leverage) with a return of -1.07%. (See Figure 1)
• Core View (Short-term) Validation: The core view proposed last week has been precisely validated by the market. Over the past week, the price broke through the key resistance range of $94,500~$95,000 and is currently confirming its validity. The price reached a high of $97,963, differing by less than 0.5% from the given resistance lower bound of $97,500, once again confirming our ability to judge key points.
• Market Outlook for the Coming Weeks: Is Bitcoin about to transition from a bear market to a bull market? Is the current market a rebound or a reversal? The 21-week moving average may become the market's bull-bear dividing line in the future. (Detailed explanation in Figure 4)
The following will review market predictions, strategy execution, and specific trading processes in detail.
I. Bitcoin Market Review Last Week: (01.12~01.18)
1. Last Week's Short-term Operation Review: As shown in (Figure 1)
We strictly followed the trading signals from our self-built spread trading model and momentum quantitative model, combined with market trend predictions, to complete one short-term operation. This trade resulted in a loss of 1.07%.
Specific trade details and review are as follows:
Bitcoin 30-minute K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative model + Spread Trading model)
Figure 1
1. Trade Details Summary: (No leverage)
2. Short-term Trade Review:
• First Trade (Loss 1.07%): This operation executed Plan A (Selling short at resistance) strategy: When the price rose to the key resistance area of $94,500~$95,000 and showed signs of resistance, the spread trading model simultaneously triggered a top signal (green dot), forming double confirmation. Accordingly, we established a 30% short position at $95,460 as planned; however, the market deviated from expectations, finding support near $94,500 and turning upward. When the momentum quantitative model and spread trading model triggered a bottom signal again, we immediately stopped loss and exited at $96,493. Although this trade resulted in a loss, we strictly adhered to the operational discipline of "trading upon signal trigger, risk control first", achieving unity of knowledge and action.
2. Last Week's Trend Prediction and Operation Strategy Review:
1. Last week clearly stated: Maintain oscillation within the $84,000~$94,500 range, focusing on directional choices and validity at both ends of the range.
2. Key point review: Resistance at $94,500~$95,000 area, important resistance near $97,500~$99,500; support at $89,500~$91,000 area.
2. Operation Strategy Review:
• Midline Strategy: If the price successfully breaks through and stabilizes above $94,500, close all midline positions (short positions) and hold coins观望.
• Short-term Strategy: If maintaining oscillation within the $84,000~$94,500 range, execute operations according to Plan A:
• Open Position: When rebounding to the $94,500~$95,000 area combined with model top signals, establish a 30% short position.
• Risk Control: Initial stop loss for short positions set about 1.5% above the entry price (i.e., 1.015 * entry price).
• Close Position: When falling near core support levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.
II. Analyzing Bitcoin's Price Structure from a Technical Perspective: Comprehensive Judgment Based on Multiple Models and Dimensions
Combining market movements, the author conducts an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's price structure from multiple models and dimensions based on a self-built trading system.
Bitcoin Weekly K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Sentiment Quantitative Model)
Figure 2
1. As shown in (Figure 2), analysis from the weekly chart:
• Momentum Quantitative Model: Technical indicators show, continuing the pattern of previous weeks, the momentum lines are gradually converging, while the negative energy bars continue to shrink. However, the current signals do not confirm a reversal of the bearish trend.
Momentum Quantitative Model indicates: Price decline index: High
• Sentiment Quantitative Model: Blue sentiment line value 57.17, strength zero; yellow sentiment line value 25.28, strength zero, peak value is 0.
Sentiment Quantitative Model indicates: Price pressure and support index: Neutral
• Digital Monitoring Model: The price has been below the bull-bear (yellow-blue line) dividing line for 9 weeks. Last week, the bulls once again冲击 this line, closing near below.
Digital Monitoring Model indicates: Monitoring (top/bottom) digital signals have not appeared; weekly K-line closed as a medium阳线, gain about 2.92%.
The above data suggests: Bitcoin weekly chart is in a bearish trend, be wary of oscillation adjustment risks.
Bitcoin Daily K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Sentiment Quantitative Model)
Figure 3
2. As shown in (Figure 3), analysis from the daily chart:
• Momentum Quantitative Model: Last week overall showed a "first rise then fall" pattern. In the first half of the week, the price accelerated its rebound, the momentum line stood above the zero axis, and the positive energy bars rapidly expanded; but in the latter half, the energy bars明显萎缩, the momentum lines converged again, slowly approaching the zero axis.
Momentum Quantitative Model indicates: Daily chart bullish momentum shows exhaustion, focus on the gain/loss of the zero axis.
• Sentiment Quantitative Model: After last week's daily close, blue sentiment line value 38, strength zero; yellow sentiment line value 76, strength zero.
Sentiment Quantitative Model indicates: Pressure and support index: Neutral
The above data suggests: The daily level rebound continues, the market initially shows a bullish pattern, but validity needs confirmation. Next, focus on the battle between bulls and bears over the zero axis.
III. This Week's Market Prediction: (01.19~01.25)
1. This Week's Core View: Focus on the gain/loss of the $94,500~$95,000 area.
• Resistance Effective: If the price rebounds to this area and confirms resistance, it is expected to maintain oscillation within the $84,000~$94,500 range, with the subsequent first test target at the $89,500~$91,000 area.
• Effectively Stabilized: If it can strongly stabilize above this area, the price is expected to oscillate and rebound, but the height is limited.
2. Core Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Area: $94,500~$95,000 area (previous box edge)
• Second Resistance Area: $97,500~$99,500 area (previous oscillation center)
• Important Resistance Level: Near $10,200 (near the 21-week moving average)
3. Core Support Levels:
• First Support Level: $89,500~$91,000 area (previous筹码密集成交区)
• Second Support Level: $86,000~$86,500 area (previous important support level)
• Important Support Level: Near $84,000 (previous box lower edge)
IV. This Week's Operation Strategy (Excluding Sudden News Impact): (01.19~01.25)
1. Midline Strategy: No position, market trends may oscillate and fluctuate,暂时持币观望.
2. Short-term Strategy: Use 30% of position, set stop loss points, based on support and resistance levels, look for "spread" opportunities. (Using 30 minutes as the operation cycle).
3. In operation, focus on the gain/loss of the $94,500~$95,000 area. To dynamically respond to market changes combined with real-time model signals, we have prepared two short-term operation plans, A/B:
• Plan A: If the price stabilizes above the $94,500~$95,000 area:
• Open Position: After the price breaks through the $94,500~$95,000 area and shows stabilization signals, combined with model bottom signals, establish a 30% long position.
• Risk Control: Initial stop loss for long positions set about 1.5% below the entry price (i.e., 0.985 * entry price).
• Close Position: When rebounding near core resistance levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.
• Plan B: If the price effectively breaks below the $94,500~$95,000 area:
• Open Position: If the rebound confirms a effective break below this area, establish a 30% short position.
• Risk Control: Initial stop loss for short positions set about 1.5% above the entry price (i.e., 1.015 * entry price).
• Close Position: When falling near $86,500 combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.
Bitcoin Weekly K-line Chart: Comparative Analysis of Historical Price Structure (2021.11 VS 2025.10)
Figure 4
Note: In the above figure, 21-week moving average (white), 84-week moving average (green)
V. How Will History Repeat? Similarities, Differences, and Lessons from Two Rounds of Weekly Level Adjustments:
In summary, we can extract the following core insights:
1. The current weekly level is in a bearish trend, which limits the space for daily rebounds.
2. In the coming weeks, whether the price can effectively break through and stabilize above the 21-week moving average will become the market's focus. If the price fails to form an effective breakthrough when rebounding to this moving average, the market may repeat the historical adjustment pattern, even breaking below the $80,000 mark.
3. Whether the weekly level MACD indicator can show signs of stopping decline and stabilizing, and the momentum line effectively crosses above the zero axis, becomes a key basis for judging whether the market trend has reversed.
VI. Special Notes:
1. When opening a position: Immediately set the initial stop loss level.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop loss to the entry price (break-even point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit, move the stop loss同步 by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in profits.
Financial markets change rapidly, all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analytical models, and operation strategies involved in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, for personal trading log purposes only, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market has risks, investment needs caution, DYOR.
