Bitcoin

Focuses on news, price analysis, technological evolution, and market trends within the Bitcoin ecosystem. It explores its role and influence in the global financial system.

Farewell to 24-Hour Delays: How to Predict ETF Fund Flows Through Premium Rates

The article explains how ETF premium/discount rates can predict daily fund flows for Bitcoin and ETH ETFs, bypassing the 24-hour delay of official data. A persistent negative premium (ETF trading below its net asset value) typically signals net outflows, as Authorized Participants (APs) arbitrage by buying cheap ETF shares, redeeming them for the underlying asset, and selling it. Conversely, a positive premium (ETF trading above NAV) predicts inflows, as APs buy the underlying asset to create new ETF shares to sell at the higher price. Statistical analysis from a 146-day period showed this indicator was accurate approximately 81-84% of the time. For instance, a week of sustained premiums below -0.15% in January 2026 preceded a $1.3 billion outflow and a significant price drop. The article cautions that the premium rate is not a standalone tool. Its effectiveness depends on normal market function and should be combined with other indicators for confirmation, such as: - ETF holdings changes - Futures basis and funding rates - Options Put/Call ratios - On-chain large transfers and exchange net flows Key usage tips include focusing on the persistence of the extremity of the premium rate (±1% is significant) and considering the asset's price context (e.g., negative premium at a price high may signal a top). The goal is to use this real-time data to gain an informational edge and validate trends.

marsbit14h ago

Farewell to 24-Hour Delays: How to Predict ETF Fund Flows Through Premium Rates

marsbit14h ago

MicroStrategy's Defense Line Breached! Is Bitcoin Sliding Towards the 60,000s?

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing its darkest period of the year. Bitcoin (BTC) has sharply declined, with intraday losses reaching 9%, and its price briefly fell below $76,037—the volume-weighted average cost basis for MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of BTC. This marks the first time since October 2023 that Bitcoin has traded below this key level. As MicroStrategy’s highly leveraged position faces a major test, market panic is deepening. The company’s aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin near the $90,000 level earlier this year significantly raised its average purchase price. With BTC now near $75,000, MicroStrategy’s holdings of approximately 712,600 BTC have fallen into an overall unrealized loss for the first time this cycle. The sell-off is driven by tightening macro liquidity, weak demand, and forced liquidations of highly leveraged positions. Bitcoin has broken below key support levels, and despite being deeply oversold, buying interest remains weak. Analysts warn that if Bitcoin fails to reclaim $78,000 soon, it could fall toward the critical 200-week moving average near $68,000—a major technical and psychological support level. Some even suggest a further drop to $60,000 is possible if panic persists. This downturn reflects a broader market reset after a period of excessive leverage and speculation. While MicroStrategy may withstand short-term pressure due to its long-term debt structure, retail investors face a sharp reality check as expectations adjust downward.

比推Yesterday 19:44

MicroStrategy's Defense Line Breached! Is Bitcoin Sliding Towards the 60,000s?

比推Yesterday 19:44

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