Key Takeaways
- Long-term Bitcoin holders are selling a lot right now, putting downward pressure on the price.
- The market has absorbed much of this selling so far, with big buyers stepping in to support it.
- A full crash is unlikely in the near term, but Bitcoin could still drop further if selling continues.
Bitcoin (BTC) has started 2026 on shaky ground, grinding between $88,000 and $90,000 after falling hard from its $124,000 peak.
As the market searches for a clear direction, one storyline is dominating the conversation.
Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs)—investors who have held BTC for at least 155 days—may be starting to sell in size.
If that trend holds, it could add fresh pressure to an already fragile market and fuel fears that a deeper pullback is still ahead.
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Long-Term Holders Dump Hard
According to Glassnode data , Bitcoin long-term holders are dumping BTC faster than during the October 2025 crash.
Over the past 30 days, these LTHs have sold approximately 143,000 BTC, valued at around $9.5 billion at current prices.
This marks the fastest pace of divestment since August 2025, reversing a brief accumulation phase from late December 2025 to early January 2026.
Glassnode’s data shows that mid-term holders (1-5 years) are still offloading supply, while longer-term holders (over 5 years) show signs of stabilization or even minor accumulation.
For instance, the BTC supply that has been inactive for over five years increased by 95,500 coins in the last month, suggesting that not all veteran holders are panicking.
However, this selling adds supply to the market and puts downward pressure on prices.
CryptoQuant echoes this , noting that LTH sales began when prices surpassed $40,000, distinguishing this cycle from previous bull markets where holders were more steadfast.
Bitcoin’s price weakness isn’t isolated to LTH behavior. Over 22% of BTC supply is held at a loss, a level last seen in early 2022 and mid-2018, heightening sensitivity to further declines.
Short-term holders (STHs), who are price-sensitive, are particularly vulnerable; their spent output profit ratio sits at 0.99, just below breakeven, suggesting potential capitulation if support breaks.
Glassnode warned that failure to hold key levels, such as the -1 standard deviation of the STH cost basis or the true market mean, could resume LTH selling.
Bitcoin’s Crash Risk Now Dependent on Macro Backdrop
Macro factors add layers of complexity to the current bearish market trends.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite a depleting dollar.
Institutional inflows via spot ETFs have been mixed, with $1.3 billion in outflows recently, yet firms like Strategy have absorbed over 40,000 BTC in 2026 alone.
This institutional buying counters retail leverage unwinding; over $1 billion in positions liquidated in a single day recently, creating forced selling cascades.
While selling pressure is evident, a full-blown crash appears unlikely in the near term, though downside volatility remains a concern.
The October 2025 deleveraging event wiped out $19 billion in positions, echoing past cycles in which leverage, not fundamentals, drove crashes.
Yet, current leverage is lower, with investors favoring hedging options over futures bets. Exchange inflows are at 2020 lows, implying holders aren’t rushing to sell.
Not all indicators scream doom. For example, realized capitalization, a measure of real money entering the network, hit new highs, signaling sustained interest beyond speculation.
Even isolated sales, like a 12-year holder offloading 500 BTC, haven’t sparked panic, as institutions have absorbed the flow.
Global liquidity supports BTC in the short term, though growth is slowing. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s structure is healthier, with less leverage and more defensive investor behavior.
The market has absorbed most of the LTH high intensity sales, with decelerating outflows and institutional backstops preventing a freefall.
A crash would require cascading failures: broken supports, renewed leverage builds, or macro shocks like aggressive rate hikes.
Current data suggests resilience, with Bitcoin potentially consolidating before liquidity returns.
