In last week's report, based on Bitcoin's daily chart structure, we clearly stated the core judgment that "the oversold rebound phase has begun, and the rebound height will determine the subsequent market direction". We also issued a warning for HYPE, indicating a "significantly high probability of adjustment near the Endpoint 61 (72.97 USD)". This week's market trajectory further validated the effectiveness of our analytical framework: Bitcoin completed the multi-stage rebound as expected and touched a key resistance level, while HYPE met resistance and fell back around 72.97 USD as anticipated, with a maximum drop of 9.39%.
Building upon this, this week's report will provide a detailed breakdown of the potential price paths and specific trading strategies for BTC and HYPE, combining the latest 4-hour and daily chart structures with signals from our proprietary quantitative models.
Summary of This Week's Core Trading Views:
• BTC Multi-timeframe Structure Analysis (Details in Part 1)
• BTC Price Forecast and Mid/Short-term Trading Strategies This Week (Details in Part 2)
• HYPE Hourly Structure Analysis (Details in Part 3)
• HYPE Price Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategies This Week (Details in Part 4)
Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views:
• Validation of BTC Forecast: Last week's article clearly stated that Bitcoin had entered a daily-level oversold rebound phase, emphasizing that the height of this rebound would determine the market's subsequent direction. The current market trajectory is developing in line with our prediction.
• Validation of HYPE Forecast: Last week's article indicated a significant probability of HYPE undergoing adjustment near "Endpoint 61" (72.97 USD). Currently, market movements are highly consistent with our judgment.
Part 1: Bitcoin's Structure Analysis from Last Week
1. Bitcoin Daily Chart Structure Analysis: (Based on price action post-May 6th)
Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart
Figure 1
1. As shown in (Figure 1): The corrective move initiated from the May 6th high of $82,850 has presented a four-segment adjustment structure on the daily chart: segments (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4).
2. Since touching the low of $57,820 on July 1st, the market is currently developing the rebound segment (3-4), and the price has already broken through the $64,500 resistance level. Last week's commentary explicitly stated: If this rebound first breaks the $64,500 resistance, and then (preferably) breaks the $65,700 resistance, the probability significantly increases for a subsequent stabilization and rebound above the low of $57,820 once the (3-4) rebound segment concludes and corrects.
3. On the daily timeframe, the price overlap across segments (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4) has preliminarily formed a "descending consolidation zone" (as shown in the chart). Based on the above analysis, the market is highly likely to enter a "zone extension" phase next, meaning this "zone" will be composed of five or even more overlapping segments. This signals a short-term market entry into a volatile, range-bound consolidation pattern.
2. In-depth Bitcoin Hourly Structure Analysis: (Using 4-hour as the analysis cycle)
Bitcoin_4-hour Candlestick Chart
Figure 2
1. On the 4-hour chart, the rebound starting from the July 1st low of $57,820 clearly shows a three-segment structure: (44-45), (45-46), and (46-47).
2. Based on the current structure analysis, the price is in the midst of developing the (46-47) rebound segment. As the local high "Endpoint 47" was being formed, our proprietary "Momentum Quantitative Model" showed a clear bearish divergence signal, and the "Price Difference Trading Model" touched a top warning signal (white dot). Therefore, the probability of a technical correction at the hourly level here is extremely high. If the price corrects as expected, watch for support effectiveness near "Endpoint 46". If signs of stabilization appear around this level, a subsequent rebound will likely occur, with the primary upside target initially being $65,700; if rebound momentum is strong, the next important target is $67,300.
Part 2: Bitcoin Price Forecast and Trading Strategies for This Week (07.13~07.19)
1. BTC Price Forecast for This Week:
This Week's Core View: Focus closely on the price's performance around the key resistance level of $64,700. If a correction occurs as expected, closely observe the effectiveness of support when it falls back near $61,500. Stabilization signals at this level will determine whether the subsequent rebound can continue.
2. Core Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Zone: $64,700 area (upper bound of previous consolidation zone)
• Second Resistance Zone: $65,700~$67,300 area (previous significant resistance area)
• Third Resistance Zone: $69,500~$71,000 area (previous significant resistance area)
3. Core Support Levels:
• First Support Zone: $60,950~$62,000 area (previous important support area)
• Second Support Level: Near $57,820 (previous important support level)
• Third Support Level: Near $55,000 (previous important support level)
4. Trading Strategies for This Week (Excluding the Impact of Sudden News):
1. Mid-term Strategy: Bitcoin_Daily Candlestick Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)
Figure 3
Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 3), the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel", confirming a shift to a bear-dominated market structure.
• Current mid-term short positions should be maintained at around 20% for now.
• If the price rebounds to the $65,700~$67,300 area and shows signs of stagnation, combined with top signals from our proprietary quantitative models, consider increasing mid-term short positions to within 50%.
2. Short-term Strategy: Use 30% of capital, set stop-loss points, and look for "price difference" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30-minute/60-minute charts as the operation cycle).
3. For short-term operations, to dynamically respond to the market's complex evolution, we have pre-determined three specific contingency plans: A/B/C.
• Plan A: Tentatively go long if support in the $60,950~$62,000 area holds. • Entry: If the price corrects from near $64,700 and, upon falling to the $60,950~$62,000 area, shows signs of stabilization combined with bottom signals from quantitative models, aggressive investors can establish a long position of about 15%. • Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: Gradually close the position for profit when the price reaches important resistance levels combined with model signals.
• Plan B: Tentatively go short near strong resistance zones. • Entry: If the price rebounds and meets resistance in the $65,700~$67,300 area, combined with top signals from quantitative models, establish a short position of about 30%. • Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: Gradually close the position for profit when the price adjusts to important support levels combined with model signals.
• Plan C: Lightly test long near strong support zones. • Entry: After the price breaks above $65,700 and then corrects, if signs of stabilization appear above the previous low of $57,820, combined with bottom signals from quantitative models, establish a long position of about 30%. • Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: Gradually close the position for profit when the price rebounds to important resistance levels combined with model signals.
Part 3: HYPE Hourly Structure Analysis
HYPE_4-hour Candlestick Chart
Figure 4
1. As shown in (Figure 4), from the June 25th low of $58.5 (Endpoint 54) to the July 7th high of $72.97 (Endpoint 61), HYPE's move on the 4-hour cycle can be subdivided into a seven-segment upward structure. Among them, segments 55-56, 56-57, and 57-58 overlap to form an "ascending consolidation zone".
2. Last week's commentary pointed out: Since a complete seven-segment upward structure has run from "Endpoint 54 to Endpoint 61", and top warning signals were triggered at "Endpoint 59" and "Endpoint 61" respectively, be alert to short-term adjustment risks. Last week, the market met resistance and began adjusting around $72.97 as expected. During the development of the (61-62) correction segment, the maximum decline was approximately 9.39%.
3. Based on the 4-hour chart analysis, the price is currently developing the (61-62) correction segment. The current "Endpoint 62" has already broken below the previous low "Endpoint 60" ($68.16), which preliminarily damages the structure that has been rising since "Endpoint 54".
Part 4: HYPE Price Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategies This Week
1. HYPE Price Forecast for This Week:
1. Core Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Level: $68~$69.5 area
• Second Resistance Level: Near $72.97
• Third Resistance Level: Near $76.94
2. Core Support Levels:
• First Support Level: Near $65.5
• Second Support Zone: $60.5~$61.5 area
This Week's Core View on HYPE: Focus on where the current correction "Endpoint 62" concludes, and whether the subsequent rebound height can break through the $72.97 resistance.
2. HYPE Short-term Trading Strategies for This Week: This Week's Short-term Operations: Strategy One: If, after the (61-62) correction segment ends, the price rebounds and breaks the $72.97 resistance—since it would be approaching the strong resistance area of the historical high at $76.94—it is recommended to remain观望 (unallocated/cash).
Strategy Two: Conversely, if after the (61-62) correction segment ends, the price rebound fails to reach $72.97, it is recommended to establish short positions on rallies. Operationally, strict stop-losses must be set, with position size controlled within 30%.
Part 5: Special Reminders:
- Upon Entry: Immediately set an initial stop-loss.
- When Profit Reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
- When Profit Reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
- Continuous Tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in profits.
Financial markets change rapidly, and all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analytical models, and operational strategies involved in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, intended solely for personal trading log purposes, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market carries risks, investing requires caution. Please do not make decisions based on this content.
