Корреляция биткоина с медвежьим рынком 2022 года достигла 98%

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-12-28Last updated on 2025-12-28

Биткоин (BTC) повторяет медвежьи паттерны 2022 года с почти 100% корреляцией.

Анализ цены BTC: все плохо

Анализ цены цифрового золота от экономиста Тимоти Питерсона показывает, что этот год «жутко» похож на 2022 год.

Биткоин разочаровал быков снижением на 36% от исторических максимумов — именно тогда, когда многие верили, что получат значительные прибыли от ралли криптовалюты.

По теме: спотовый биткоин-ETF стал главным источником дохода для BlackRock

В преддверии декабря пара BTC/USD демонстрирует что угодно, кроме бычьей динамики. По данным Питерсона, она даже имитирует свое последнее медвежье дно.

«Биткоин во второй половине 2025 такой же, как биткоин во второй половине 2022 года», — сообщил подписчикам аналитик.

На дневных и месячных таймфреймах корреляция между текущим и 2022 годами удивляет. На первых она составляет 80%, а на вторых — 98%.

Если история повторится, настоящее восстановление цены цифрового золота может произойти только в первом квартале следующего года.

Корреляция цены биткоина в разные годы. Источник: Х.
«Выглядит плохо, потому что так и есть», — написал Питерсон о ноябрьских показателях.

По теме: Tether прекратила майнинг биткоина в Уругвае

Корреляция в динамике биткоина. Источник: Х.

Напомним, «красный» ноябрь для BTC/USD исторически приводит к такому же результату в декабре, хотя и с менее интенсивным снижением.

Крипто-ETF улучшают общую картину

Изменение макронастроений по-прежнему способно вызвать классическое «рождественское ралли» на рынке рисковых активов. Хотя рынок цифровых активов пострадал гораздо больше, чем акции, признаки разворота постепенно нарастают.

На фоне данных от Bloomberg и JPMorgan ресурс The Kobeissi Letter объявил о «массовых притоках» в американские акции. Они привлекли $900 млрд нового капитала с ноября 2024 года, включая $450 млрд только за последние пять месяцев.

«Для сравнения, фонды других классов активов привлекли всего $100 млрд», — рассказали эксперты. — «Иными словами, акции получили больше капитала, чем все другие классы активов ВМЕСТЕ ВЗЯТЫЕ. Притоки в акции остаются крайне сильными».
Потоки капитала в традиционные финансы. Источник: Х.

Последние данные по американским спотовым биткоин- и Ethereum-ETF намекают, что худшая часть распродажи может быть уже позади. Фонды на базе первой криптовалюты завершили «неделю Благодарения» с притоком в $220 млн, а продукты на базе альткоина привлекли $312 млн.

Потоки капитала в спотовые биткоин- и Ethereum-ETF. Источник: Farside Investors.

По теме: больше не «экстремально страшно» — настроения криптоинвесторов восстанавливаются

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What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. 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Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

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