Matrixport投研:BTC突破100,000美元,看涨价差期权或当时

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-05-09Last updated on 2025-05-09

Abstract

BTC 主导地位提升,山寨上涨行情缺乏催化剂,善用策略正当时

自 BTC 价格突破 85, 450 美元以来,BTC 价格上涨幅度已经超过 19% 。 在山寨币表现表现低迷,且 BTC 在全球货币供应指标上达到了历史性的转折点(往往预示着强劲的上涨趋势),BTC 于 8 日再次上探 100, 000 美元并成功突破。

技术指标:BTC 重回 21 周移动平均线,且突破斐波那契阻力位

到 4 月 25 日, BTC 重新站上我们的 21 周移动平均线—— 87, 199 美元,为买入看涨期权提供了合理依据,尤其是在 BTC 突破 87, 045 美元的斐波那契阻力位,并且 ETF 资金流入加速之后。移动平均线确认、斐波那契突破及 ETF 资金流入增加等信号共同构成了一个稳健的战术框架,投资者能够在捕捉 BTC 上涨空间从而获利的同时有效控制风险。

宏观背景:降息预期下降

在过去 18 个月里,全球货币政策极大地改变了流入数字资产的资本流向。随着利率维持高位,传统投资者重新评估风险配置,美联储的沟通策略变得尤为关键。2024 年 12 月 7 日发布的 11 月 FOMC 会议纪要打破了市场对 2025 年四次降息的预期,将降息预测削减至仅两次。

市场情绪:BTC 主导地位上升,山寨市场缺乏叙事驱动

链上数据揭示了市场的分化程度。 BTC 的市场主导地位(以其占整个加密市场总市值的比例衡量)从 ETF 时代初期的 49% 上升至目前的 64.5% ,这一水平自 2021 年 DeFi 热潮以来首次出现。该变化反映了数字资产中所有主要指标中最高的风险调整回报,市场的避险倾向明显。

同时,散户投资者的情绪仍较为低迷,无论是中心化交易所还是 DeFi 协议,其交易量均处于多年低点。由于缺乏强有力的叙事驱动——没有新的 DeFi 颠覆性应用、Layer-2 技术突破或病毒式传播的迷因币热潮——散户投资者仍在观望。自 2024 年 12 月以来,社交媒体上山寨币相关话题的讨论量已下降逾 40% ,而 BTC 相关讨论仍然高涨,反映出市场对 BTC 作为宏观对冲资产的持续兴趣。

夏季盘整在即,在缺乏重大催化因素的情况下,山寨币的情绪驱动型上涨行情难以形成。鉴于技术面、宏观面及市场结构因素均未对山寨币形成积极驱动,山寨币永续合约的资金费率仍维持低位,以现货或永续期货的方式维持对 BTC 的多头头寸,并利用山寨币永续期货作为对冲工具或为不错的套利方式。

免责声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。 

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How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. 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