BTC波动率周回顾(四月28日-五月5日)

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-05-07Last updated on 2025-05-07

Abstract

本周随着市场稳定,币价在区间内小范围波动,未能碰到头顶99-100k美元的关键阻力位。89-91k美元的支撑目前可以维持价格在当前区间内,但如果突破该支撑位币价可能会大幅向下调整到85k美元。随着上周几个假日的结束,我们预期会看到币价被单边挪动,可能会尝试试探100k美元,但如果没能突破,可能会导致低波动率时段延长。

BTC波动率周回顾(四月28日-五月5日)

关键指标(四月 28 日 下午四点- 五月 5 日 下午四点 香港时间)

  • BTC 对 USD 价格无变化( 94, 700 美元->94, 700 美元), ETH 对 USD 上涨 1.4% ( 1, 800 美元-> 1, 825 美元)

BTC波动率周回顾(四月28日-五月5日)

  • 本周随着市场稳定,币价在区间内小范围波动,未能碰到头顶 99-100 千美元的关键阻力位。89-91 千美元的支撑目前可以维持价格在当前区间内,但如果突破该支撑位币价可能会大幅向下调整到 85 千美元。随着上周几个假日的结束,我们预期会看到币价被单边挪动-可能会尝试试探 100 千美元-但如果没能突破,可能会导致低波动率时段延长。

  • 我们依然保持看涨比特币,预期接下来几个月或季度内会到达 115-125 千美元。

市场主题

  • 因为上周主要是节假日,全球市场又度过了平静的一周。股市继续持续上涨。随着特朗普和贝森特继续推动与中国的协议,以及和其他国家或地区的协议也“即将宣布”(但市场对此已经有了预期),标普指数收回了自四月初“川普解放日”以来的差距。非农数据是本周主要的数据,出人意料的强劲数据平息了人们对经济放缓的担忧,并支撑了美股的上涨,同时几家领头可就公司的盈利数据也相当强劲。

  • 就加密货币而言,上周是非常安静的一周。比特币连续 7 天基本不动,尽管周五晚上短暂地上涨到 97.8 千美元但很快就回落了。MSTR 在继续购买比特币(上周买入总值 1.8 亿美元),并宣布了另一轮股权计划继续买入比特币(因为第一轮 21 亿的股权已经买完),但总的来说这波买入已经被市场完全吸收。目前这个 92-96 千美元看起来是比特币的均衡价格区间。因为二月我们就曾经在此长期稳定,且在关税新闻之前在此徘徊。因此我们预期会在当前区间进行较长时间的整盘,除非有重大的外部因素影响。

BTC ATM 隐含波动率

BTC波动率周回顾(四月28日-五月5日)

  • 上周隐含波动率在上周一因为币价爬高而短暂上涨,之后逐步降低。高频实际波动率锁定在 30 出头的水平,同时期限结构非常陡峭(目前市场定价在五月底到六月会回到 50 几的波动率水平),意味着目前在期限远端任何拿多头的头寸都很难赚钱。我们怀疑市场因为过去几周的卖压持有多头头寸并且很难拿住,因此短期到期日的波动率才会被压低至此。

  • 非常短期的期限上看,市场目前没有对本周的美联储会议做过多定价(只定价了 40 bps 的价格变化)。我们预计很快会看到相关的买家出现。

BTC 偏度/峰度

BTC波动率周回顾(四月28日-五月5日)

  • 随着比价短暂突破 97 千美元以及出现了上探 99-100 千美元的曙光,偏度一度激烈偏向上方。然而最终币价停滞不前并在本周初跌破了 94 千美元,把偏度价格推回较低水平,因为市场意识到目前币价往两边发展都有可能。

  • 由于本周低迷的实际波动率以及币价停留在舒适区内,两边翼侧的卖压增大,今儿压低峰度。但考虑到我们目前如此低的波动率,我们认为突破当前 89-99 千美元这个大范围波动率都会加速上涨。同时也会伴随着偏度大幅偏向对应一侧(也就是说突破 99 千美元偏向上涨测,跌破 89 千美元偏向下跌侧)

祝大家本周好运!

BTC波动率周回顾(四月28日-五月5日)

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533 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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