BTC波动率周回顾(三月3日- 三月10日 )

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-03-11Last updated on 2025-03-11

Abstract

我们依然保持中期看涨的观点，但在缺乏强劲上行动力的情况下，时间线可能会被进一步拉长。

BTC波动率周回顾(三月3日- 三月10日 )

关键指标：(三月 3 日 下午四点-> 三月 10 日 下午四点 香港时间)

  • BTC 对 USD 下跌 10.7% （92, 200 美元->82, 300 美元），ETH 对 USD 下跌 14.8% （2, 430 美元-> 2, 070 美元）

BTC 对 USD 现货技术指标一览

BTC波动率周回顾(三月3日- 三月10日 )

  • 由于受到一系列新闻和上周加密货币相关事件的影响，市场波动持续高涨。最终币价未能站稳脚跟并继续在大范围内摇摆，下行支撑位在 79-73 千美元，同时上行的阻力位在 89-93 千美元。

  • 我们一度希望上周的探底和迅速反弹暗示漫长的修正期已经结束，但币价走势不如人意。在一开始下跌的位置以上阻力位包括 95-96 千美元，接着是 100-102 千美元，最终是 110 千美元。在币价下方如果跌破 73 千美元可能会回撤到 65-67.5 千美元，之后币价走势会比目前预期的总体上涨更加复杂。我们依然保持中期看涨的观点，但在缺乏强劲上行动力的情况下，时间线可能会被进一步拉长。

市场主题

  • 由于美国关税实行重新点燃了全球贸易战的恐惧，VIX 指数从 20 上涨至 26 点。同时，欧洲和德国的国防开支引发了对德国国债的抛售，并蔓延到日本国债，英国国债和美债，进一步加剧了整个风险市场的复杂度。看上去特朗普政府非常急切想要降低长期利率和再融资成本并缓解经济状况，尽管实现这一目标可能会导致进一步的抛售以及资金从美国风险资产撤离。非农数据略显疲弱，在 DOGE（政府效率部门）的打压下这种趋势可能会延续。

  • 回到加密货币，特朗普推文导致的币价反弹仅仅是昙花一现。来自美股的压力触发了币价从一周前的 95 千美元大幅扭转下跌，下探 81-82 千美元。随后伴随美股从底部爬升以及来自周五加密货币峰会的乐观情绪，币价在此找到支撑。周四晚上，特朗普签署行政命令宣布利用已持有的比特币进行加密货币储备。虽然这一消息暗示不会有更多的买入，令人感到失望，但至少对比特币来说仍然是朝着正确的方向迈进（没有提及其他代币）。周五晚上市场情绪恢复后币价短暂地触及到 90-91 千美元的阻力位，但在没有任何新消息的峰会后市场又继续不断试探下跌。在周日晚间的低流动性时段，比特币被抛售至 80 千美元以下，以太坊跌至 2 千美元以下，索拉纳跌破 125 美元。

BTC 隐含波动率

BTC波动率周回顾(三月3日- 三月10日 )

  • 尽管隐含波动率在周内波动相当剧烈，最终周对周基本不变。加密货币峰会前隐含波动率挤兑抬高，隔夜波动定价一度在 5% 的波动。非常高的实际波动也支撑隐含波动率在峰会前抬高。但随后无任何新消息的会议以及非常矜持的币价走势后，隐含波动率被超卖，三月 14 日到期的隐含波动率短暂地卖到 47 ，随后在周日币价被抛售后急剧反弹。

  • 实际波动率仍然保持在 50 大几到 60 的水平，处于近期的最高水平，原因是市场仍然在新的范围内寻求平衡。尽管我们预期接下来几天内市场还会在局部波动，但考虑到现在市场的仓位更加干净，我们认为本周后实际波动率会回到 40 中旬的水平。

BTC 偏度/峰度

BTC波动率周回顾(三月3日- 三月10日 )

  • 短期到期日上偏度偏向下方。因为相比于上涨，币价高位下跌的走势更加凶猛（除了特朗普发推那次）。在更远期的曲线上，偏度从 4 月 5 月开始转向上方，因为结构上来讲市场不愿意在币价下方部署仓位。

  • 虽然峰度以基本不变结束本周，周内的变化相当剧烈且与币价变化高度相关。然而由于币价保持在局部波动且玩家们大多用看涨或看跌价差期权配置方向性头寸，所以可以看到微笑曲线翼侧的权重被拉低同时造成峰度短期内下跌，但我们建议持有翼侧以进行保护。

BTC波动率周回顾(三月3日- 三月10日 )

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What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. 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While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. 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