Matrixport投研:短期超买,强资金流入助推比特币走高

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-11-15Last updated on 2024-11-15

Abstract

下述因素为持续的看涨情绪和 BTC 价格稳定创造了有利的背景。

在经历了七个月的盘整之后,BTC 现货 ETF 迎来异乎寻常的资金流入。以 9 月中旬 50 个基点的降息为开端,美联储主席鲍威尔向市场保证延长降息周期,而这进一步加速了 BTC 现货 ETF 的资金流入。

受价格上涨和媒体关注增加的影响,BTC 的强劲势头预计将持续到 12 月,从而吸引新的投资者入局。乐观情绪也围绕着 2025 年 1 月 20 日特朗普的就职典礼,这可能会带来一个更有利的加密货币监管环境,包括任命新的 SEC 主席。此外, 对 FTX 即将宣布返还债权人 165 亿美元的预期也可能支持市场情绪。这些因素为持续的看涨情绪和 BTC 价格稳定创造了有利的背景。

到 2025 年加密资产将跨越 8% 的普及门槛,这将是一个重大转折点,将会为更大规模的普及奠定基础。

在本季度推动 BTC 屡创新高的几大因素,其中美国监管领域的三个重大变化最为重要。首先, 12 月 6 日,标普全球可能会宣布将 MicroStrategy 纳入标普 500 指数,促使指数基金入场布局。其次, 12 月 10 日,微软将不顾董事会反对,对一份投资 BTC 的提案进行审议。

此前,美国全国公共政策研究中心依据“ 2025 计划”提交了一份提案,建议将 BTC 作为投资标的进行评估。最后,从 2024 年 12 月 15 日开始,财务会计准则委员会(FASB)将推出新规,允许加密资产以公允市场价值列入公司财报,这将鼓励财务部门将 BTC 纳入资产负债表。

从历史数据来看,当 BTC 的相对强弱指标(RSI)达到超买水平或 30 天滚动回报率超过 40% +,其价格往往会随着势头降温而出现盘整。但鉴于近期出现的超买现象,短暂的盘整阶段可能会出现。但是,诸多积极因素正逐渐显露。

从 7 天滚动价格变化率(以美元为基准)来观察比特币目前的势头。随着 BTC 价格上涨,价格的绝对差值会增大,但最近的 7 天价格涨幅高达 19, 265 美元,创下历史新高,也说明这是一次强度史无前例的反弹。

上述部分观点来自 Matrix on Target, 与我们联系获取 Matrix on Target 完整报告。

免责声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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684 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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