Matrixport投研：Q4将至，BTC或将结束夏季盘整

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-09-27Last updated on 2024-09-27

Abstract

对加密资产领域的所有参与者而言，未来数周和数月将是激动人心的变革时期。

十月到十二月向来都是市场表现最为强劲的时期，延续了六个月的盘整阶段或将迎来终结。BTC 很有可能在年底反弹，给众多市场参与者带来惊喜。

虽然 BTC 在 2024 年 3 月达到历史新高后一直处于盘整状态，但年初至今回报率也达到了+ 49% ，与根据历史数据预测的+ 47% 回报率不相上下。根据比特币在过去十年的表现，如果这一历史趋势延续下去，十月很有可能迎来大幅反弹。

美联储降息提振市场情绪，预防劳动力市场持续走弱

美联储近期宣布降息 50 bp。鲍威尔主席向金融市场表示，之所以做出这一决定是因为美联储有信心通胀会回落到 2% 目标水平。同时，降息也是避免劳动力市场走弱的预防性措施。鲍威尔强调美国经济整体运行良好，他相对强硬的言论也让不少投资者放下担忧。虽然美国大选的不确定性仍然存在，美联储的这番动作成功保住了市场势头。

随着加密资产不断接近技术大规模普及的引爆点，BTC 的命运可能在 2025 年迎来转折。对加密资产领域的所有参与者而言，未来数周和数月将是激动人心的变革时期。

历史数据显示年末加密资产表现强劲，值得期待

从历史数据来看，十月到三月这段时间市场表现一般会出现大幅提升，过去十年平均回报率达+ 40% ，而四月到九月这段时间平均回报率仅为+ 27% 。2023 年和 2024 年也出现了类似的周期表现。十月的表现最为强劲，平均回报率达+ 20% ，过去十年中有八年回报率为正值。

ETH  矿工费出现小幅反弹，夏季盘整有望终结

ETH 矿工费出现小幅反弹，预示着加密资产夏季盘整阶段可望迎来终结。至于反弹势头是否会延续，则需要对 ETH 营收和矿工费趋势进行更加详实严谨的分析。密切关注这些指标可以深入了解近期的反弹是否可持续。若不可持续，则说明市场活动的逻辑可能有了新的变化。

上述部分观点来自 Matrix on Target, 与我们联系获取 Matrix on Target 完整报告。

免责声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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