Two Giants' Credit Expansion: Loan Balances of $9.9 Billion vs. $14.6 Billion, Brazil Emerges as the Main Battlefield

链捕手Dipublikasikan tanggal 2026-06-22Terakhir diperbarui pada 2026-06-22

Abstrak

Title: Two Giants "Credit" Surge: Loan Balances of 99 Billion vs. 146 Billion USD, Brazil Emerges as Main Battlefield Summary: The article compares the rapid expansion of credit businesses by two major e-commerce and fintech players, Sea (via Monee) and Mercado Libre (via Mercado Pago), in overseas markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America, contrasting with a slowing domestic Chinese credit market. Using Q1 2026 financial data, it highlights their significant growth. Sea's Monee reached a loan balance of $99 billion, up 71% year-over-year (YoY), contributing 17.5% to Sea's total revenue. Mercado Pago's loan balance hit $146 billion, up 87% YoY, contributing 45% to its parent company's revenue. Both maintained stable risk metrics (e.g., Monee's 90+ day NPL at 1.1%) despite rapid scaling. Brazil is identified as a key and accelerating growth market for both. Sea's Brazilian operations saw loan volumes exceed $10 billion, growing 250% YoY, with SPayLater GMV penetration still low (~10%) indicating high potential. Sea also secured a key Brazilian financial credit license (SCFI). Mercado Libre's Brazil segment contributed over half (54%) of total group revenue, with its credit business there generating $11.24 billion in revenue, up 89% YoY and accounting for 12.7% of global revenue. Mercado Pago's credit portfolio, especially credit cards (46% of loans, +105% YoY), is a strategic focus, described as crucial as building logistics was a decade ago. Its net interest margin afte...

Author: Xiaohui, A Fintech Goose

While we see slow growth in the domestic credit market, with major lending platforms and consumer finance companies tightening strategies and adopting cautious volume control, the overseas credit track stands in stark contrast, experiencing a period of rapid expansion.

Southeast Asia and Latin America markets are particularly active, which are also the primary choices for Chinese fintech companies expanding overseas.

Over the past two years, "A Fintech Goose" has been consistently following two highly representative companies in Southeast Asia and Latin America:

1 Shopee's parent company Sea's Monee;

2 Mercado Libre's Mercado Pago fintech division.

Judging from the Q1 financial report data this year, the credit businesses of both companies continue to grow steadily, bringing more momentum to their respective group revenues.

As of the end of Q1 2026:

  • Monee's loan balance reached $9.9 billion (approximately RMB 67 billion), up 71% year-on-year;

  • Mercado Pago's loan balance reached $14.6 billion (approximately RMB 98.7 billion), up 87% year-on-year.

For Q1 2026:

  • Monee's revenue reached $1.242 billion (approximately RMB 8.4 billion), accounting for 17.5% of Sea's total group revenue, up from 16.3% in Q1 2025;

  • Mercado Pago's revenue reached $3.977 billion (approximately RMB 26.9 billion), accounting for 45% of Mercado Libre's total group revenue, up from 44.3% in Q1 2025.

The development logic of "E-commerce + Fintech" for these two companies is not unfamiliar to us. Chinese giants like Ant, JD, and ByteDance all grew by following this path.

However, their differentiated approaches implemented in Southeast Asia and Latin America are also highly valuable as references for domestic fintech and internet giants expanding overseas.

Below, "A Fintech Goose" reviews the key data and development highlights for both giants in Q1 2026.

01 Sea's Monee: Obtained Financial Credit License in Brazil in Q1

From the data, the fintech segment, i.e., Monee, significantly outperformed in revenue growth (+57.8% YoY) compared to the e-commerce segment Shopee (+45.1%) and the gaming segment Garena (+40.6%).

It's evident that the revenue contribution of the fintech segment Monee within the entire Sea group continues to increase.

Specific data for the fintech segment:

(1) Loan Balance

In just two years, the loan balance has grown from $3.3 billion to $9.9 billion, tripling in size.

Each quarter, the loan balance maintains high double-digit growth.

During the investor call, management mentioned that Q1 is typically a consumption off-season, but this year Q1, Sea Monee's loan balance still achieved a sequential growth of +7.5%.

(2) Risk Performance:

While the loan portfolio grew 71% within a year, the 90+ day NPL ratio only slightly increased from 1.0% to 1.1%, remaining stable at 1.1% for four consecutive quarters.

The stable NPL ratio indicates, to some extent, that their risk model has withstood the test of rapid credit expansion.

Important note on NPL ratio calculation: The denominator for the NPL 90+ ratio includes total loan principal from both "on-book + off-book" loans.

The financial report explains:

Off-book mainly refers to channeling arrangements, where cooperative financial institutions lend on the Sea platform.

(3) Three Growth Paths for Credit Business

Sea clearly outlined three growth paths for Monee's credit business in the conference call:

Path 1: Deepen relationships with existing users

Gradually increase credit limits as understanding of user repayment behavior deepens. This is reflected in the average loan balance per user increasing from $200 to $250 (+25%).

Path 2: Acquire high-quality new users

Launch targeted campaigns for customer segments with better risk scores and stronger spending power, attracting them with competitive pricing, higher credit limits, and longer repayment terms. Management explicitly stated "early signs show success."

Path 3: Expand credit scenarios outside the Shopee ecosystem (Off-Shopee)

This is the most promising growth direction.

In Thailand and Indonesia, Off-Shopee SPayLater loans exceeded 20% of the SPayLater portfolio by the end of Q1.

Notably, strong growth is seen in high-value categories in Indonesia (like electronics and two-wheelers), where installment credit plays a significant role in purchases.

(4) Brazil Market Shines Brightly

In Q1 2026, Brazil became Sea's fastest-growing market.

Both the e-commerce Shopee segment and the fintech Monee segment had highlights:

Shopee Brazil:

  • Q1 was the fastest-growing market while remaining profitable;

  • GMV growth exceeded market average, driven by active buyers, purchase frequency, and average order value;

  • Delivery times improved by over 1 day year-on-year;

  • 3 new fulfillment centers were built, bringing the total to 5;

  • ShopeeMall GMV more than doubled year-on-year, accounting for about 15% of Brazil's total GMV;

  • ShopeeVIP membership program launched in Brazil in April (already over 10 million members in Asia).

Brazil Fintech (Monee Brazil):

  • The combined SPayLater + cash loan credit product launched last year aligns well with Brazilian consumers' credit habits. This drove strong growth in user numbers and repurchase rates.

  • In Q1 2026, Brazil's loan portfolio exceeded $1 billion, up 250% year-on-year, becoming the fourth market with a loan portfolio over $1 billion.
    Note: The other three billion-dollar markets are Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia.

  • SPayLater GMV penetration in Brazil is only about 10%, far below mature markets, indicating huge growth potential;

  • Average loan balance per user in Brazil doubled year-on-year, showing extremely strong user stickiness.

  • Crucially – they secured a key license!

In Q1 2026, Sea was approved for Brazil's SCFI license (Sociedade de Crédito, Financiamento e Investimento), also known as the Brazilian financial credit license.

Obtaining this license broadens the range of financial services that can be offered in Brazil. It lays a compliant foundation for independently conducting more diversified credit business in Brazil in the future. This is a key milestone.

02 Mercado Libre: Brazil Credit Business Q1 Revenue $1.124 Billion (approx. ¥8 billion RMB)

Now let's look at Mercado Libre.

Like Sea, Brazil is a significant part of Mercado Libre's operations across all countries.

Looking at the Q1 2026 financial report, if revenue is broken down by country:

  • Brazil contributed over half of the total revenue, accounting for 54%;

  • Mexico was the fastest-growing market, with revenue up 62% year-on-year;

  • Argentina saw relatively moderate growth, with revenue up 23%, but considering Argentina's inflation and currency depreciation, the real local currency growth was high;

  • Other countries, including Chile, Colombia, Peru, etc., have a relatively small scale, collectively accounting for only 4.5%.

Looking at business segments in Q1 2026, the e-commerce segment declined slightly quarter-on-quarter (seasonal off-peak), but the Fintech segment bucked the trend with sequential growth of +4.1%.

Interestingly, within the fintech segment, credit revenue surpassed financial services revenue for the first time, becoming the largest engine for Fintech.

In other words: the credit business supports the overall performance.

In previous articles, "A Fintech Goose" has detailed Mercado Libre's credit business.

Specifically, it includes:

1 Consumer loans; 2 Credit card business; 3 Merchant loans; 4 Auto loans.

Looking at Q1 2026 data:

The credit card business showed significant loan portfolio growth (+105%), with its size accounting for 46%, taking the largest share.

No matter which country, credit cards are a business with an extremely long investment-return cycle.

In Latin America, Mercado Libre's credit card issuance incurs very high initial costs: zero annual fee + up to 40 days interest-free + up to 18 interest-free installments, plus substantial subsidies for customer acquisition. The required costs are extremely high.

Coupled with Brazilian users' habit of using interest-free installments, it takes a relatively long time from users "grabbing benefits" to "generating interest income."

(1) Strategic Significance of Credit Cards

During the investor call, management repeatedly mentioned the strategic significance of the credit card business.

They even used this phrase to describe it:"Investing in credit cards is as important for Mercado Pago as building our own logistics network was for the e-commerce platform ten years ago."

Key points summarizing Mercado Libre's credit card business:

  • Card issuance: Q1 saw 2.7 million new cards issued, credit card TPV grew 90% year-on-year, MAU grew 68% year-on-year.

  • Cross-selling flywheel: Many credit card users were previously only platform buyers and have now become active Fintech users.

  • Ecosystem effect: Credit cards improve platform conversion rates, GMV per user, and cross-ecosystem transaction volume.

  • 5-year investment in Brazil: Credit cards in Brazil have been invested in for 5 years. Older vintages are maturing as expected, gradually offsetting the dilution effect of new vintages.

  • Acceleration in Mexico: Credit card issuance in Mexico is accelerating, with an attractive payback period.

  • New start in Argentina: Credit cards were just launched in Argentina last August-September, with early performance similar to the initial stage in Brazil.

(2) Credit Risk Performance

While the credit portfolio grew 87%, the NPL ratio declined year-on-year, and provisions for severely overdue loans exceeded by about 1.5x, strengthening the risk buffer.

Special note: An NPL ratio over 17% seems alarming, but lending rates in the local market are also higher than in China.

Based on Mercado Libre's NIMAL and public information from the Brazilian market, it's estimated:

Personal Loans: Annual interest rate 146%;

Payroll Loans: Annual interest rate 28% (secured, lowest rate);

Credit Card revolving interest annual rate 451% (Central Bank of Brazil, March 2026).

(3) Net Interest Margin Remains Impressive

Screenshot from Mercado Libre Investor Report (Click image to enlarge)

Mercado Libre's net interest margin remains impressive.

It declined from 22.7% in Q1 2025 to 17.8% in Q1 2026, a drop of 4.9 percentage points, but this is still an extremely high level.

For comparison, in China, China Merchants Bank's Q1 2026 NIM was only 1.83%; WeBank, China's "profit king" among private banks, had an NIM of only 4.19% in 2025 (pre-provision basis).

Moreover, Mercado Libre's metric calculation is more stringent.

  • Mercado Libre NIMAL = Credit revenue - Bad debt provisions - Funding cost, i.e., Net Interest Margin after deducting bad debts.

  • Domestic bank NIM = (Interest income - Interest expense) / Interest-earning assets, i.e., before bad debt deduction.

Mercado Libre's investor call mentioned: The 4.9ppts year-on-year decline in NIMAL was primarily due to:

  • Increased proportion of credit cards (2/3 of the compression from this factor): Initial NIMAL for credit cards is lower because full expected loss provisions need to be booked at issuance;

  • Longer terms and broader coverage of consumer loans in Brazil (1/3 of the compression): Terms extended from 5 months to 8 months, reaching more credit score segments.

  • Notably, each sub-portfolio remains profitable. Consumer loan portfolio still maintains double-digit margins, merchant loans have the highest spread. Credit cards follow a "first loss, then profit" model, and older vintages in Brazil have already started generating profits.

(4) Brazil Market, the Biggest Surprise

Management expressed pleasant surprise and the importance of the Brazil market in the shareholder letter:

"Twenty-six years after launch, Mercado Libre is growing at startup rates across all of our major markets. Nowhere is this more evident than in Brazil, our largest and most established market, where growth is not just fast – it is accelerating."

Mercado Libre's e-commerce revenue in Q1 2026 was $2.826 billion, up 51% year-on-year.

Specifically in Q1, e-commerce GMV grew 38% year-on-year, items sold grew 56%, and active buyers grew 32%.

This growth primarily stemmed from the decision in 2025 to lower the free shipping threshold, which management called "one of the most important decisions in 2025" – lowering the free shipping threshold to R$19 (approximately RMB 25.49) greatly reduced the psychological barrier for first-time purchases.

Looking at the fintech segment –

  • Fintech in Brazil contributed $1.948 billion in revenue in Q1 2026, accounting for 22.0% of the group's total revenue;

  • Within that, credit-related revenue was $1.124 billion, accounting for 12.7% of the group's total revenue. This revenue was $596 million in Q1 last year, representing 89% year-on-year growth.

Currently, Brazil's credit business is undoubtedly a key growth engine for Mercado Libre.

The credit revenue from a single market already accounts for nearly one-eighth of Mercado Libre's global total revenue.

In short, while both Sea and Mercado Libre are betting big on Brazil, with growth rates often doubling, it is indeed an extremely tempting market.

However, this rapid growth seems to be reserved for the giants. Other fintech players—without e-commerce transaction scene data, without a payment loop to cultivate users—find it extremely difficult to operate credit businesses in Brazil. The local tax system is also particularly complex, making it hard for general players to establish themselves, and it's not recommended.

Pertanyaan Terkait

QAccording to the article, how does the credit business performance of Sea's Monee and Mercado's Mercado Pago compare in Q1 2026?

AIn Q1 2026, both Monee and Mercado Pago showed strong growth in their credit businesses. Monee's loan book reached $9.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 71%, while Mercado Pago's loan book reached $14.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 87%. Mercado Pago's loan book was larger and grew at a faster rate.

QWhat were the three key growth paths identified for Sea Monee's credit business?

AThe three key growth paths for Sea Monee's credit business are: 1) Deepening relationships with existing users by increasing credit limits as repayment behavior is understood better. 2) Acquiring high-quality new users through targeted campaigns with competitive pricing, higher limits, and longer repayment terms. 3) Expanding credit scenarios outside the Shopee ecosystem (Off-Shopee), such as in Indonesia for high-value categories like electronics and two-wheelers.

QWhy is the Brazilian market considered a 'main battleground' for both Sea and Mercado Libre?

ABrazil is considered a main battleground because it is the fastest-growing and most significant market for both companies. For Sea, Brazil was its fastest-growing market in Q1 2026, with Monee's loan book there exceeding $1 billion and growing 250% year-on-year. For Mercado Libre, Brazil contributed over 54% of its total revenue, with its credit business in Brazil generating $1.124 billion in revenue, accounting for 12.7% of the group's total revenue and growing 89% year-on-year. Both see immense potential due to low credit penetration compared to mature markets.

QWhat strategic importance does the credit card business hold for Mercado Pago, as stated in the article?

AMercado Pago's management compared the strategic importance of investing in credit cards to the significance of building its own logistics network for its e-commerce platform a decade ago. The credit card business is crucial for driving cross-selling, increasing platform conversion rates, boosting per-user GMV, and expanding cross-ecosystem transaction volume. Although it has a long investment payback period, older batches in Brazil have already started to become profitable.

QDespite high delinquency rates, how does Mercado Pago maintain profitability in its credit business, especially in Brazil?

AMercado Pago maintains profitability despite high delinquency rates because the interest rates on its credit products in markets like Brazil are significantly higher than in regions like China. For example, personal loan annual rates can be around 146%, and credit card revolving interest rates can be as high as 451%. This high revenue potential, combined with prudent risk management like maintaining a 1.5x provision coverage for severely delinquent loans, allows the business to remain profitable even with a high NPL ratio.

Bacaan Terkait

Interpretasi Citi: Saham Jatuh Setelah Laporan Keuangan, Mengapa Citi Tetap Naikkan Target Harga Sandisk ke US$2,500?

Citigroup memberikan rekomendasi "beli" untuk SanDisk dengan target harga $2.500, meskipun harga saham turun tajam setelah laporan kinerja yang kuat. Penurunan itu dipicu kekhawatiran perlambatan kenaikan harga NAND dan panduan pendapatan yang tidak memenuhi ekspektasi pasar yang terlalu tinggi. Kunci pandangan positif Citigroup adalah model bisnis baru (NBM) SanDisk, yaitu kontrak jangka panjang dengan komitmen pendapatan minimum sekitar $94 miliar dan jaminan finansial $16,5 miliar. Kontrak ini, dengan rata-rata durasi lebih dari empat tahun, diharapkan dapat mengunci volume dan harga sebagian produksi, meningkatkan visibilitas pendapatan, dan mengurangi volatilitas laba yang biasa terjadi di industri NAND yang bersiklus. Citigroup berpendapat stabilitas ini layak mendapatkan kelipatan valuasi yang lebih tinggi, sekitar 11x CY27E EPS, dibandingkan pesaing tradisional. Permintaan penyimpanan dari pusat data untuk AI, khususnya untuk beban kerja *inference*, menjadi pendorong utama. SanDisk melaporkan pertumbuhan pendapatan bisnis pusat data sebesar 437% pada FY26. Namun, risiko tetap ada, termasuk potensi perlambatan kenaikan harga NAND, kemungkinan kelebihan pasokan industri jika kapasitas idle kembali digunakan, serta persaingan dan kondisi makro. Target harga $2.500 mencerminkan keyakinan bahwa kombinasi permintaan AI dan kontrak jangka panjang dapat mengubah narasi valuasi SanDisk, meskipun siklus industri NAND tidak sepenuhnya hilang.

marsbit4m yang lalu

Interpretasi Citi: Saham Jatuh Setelah Laporan Keuangan, Mengapa Citi Tetap Naikkan Target Harga Sandisk ke US$2,500?

marsbit4m yang lalu

Kolam Gelap Mendominasi, Paus Raksasa Menghilang: Sinyal Pasar Publik, Seberapa Dapat Dipercaya?

Data dari sFOX menunjukkan peningkatan signifikan volume perdagangan di dark pool cryptocurrency, mencapai 15% dari total volume bulanan pada Juni. Laporan menyebutkan 77,7% dana institusional diproses melalui meja over-the-counter (OTC), dengan hanya 18,4% yang masuk ke bursa publik. Nilai perdagangan dark pool mencapai $147 juta pada Mei saja. Institusi seperti Jane Street dan Citadel memilih dark pool dan OTC untuk menyembunyikan pola perdagangan besar mereka, menghindari deteksi pasar yang dapat menyebabkan slippage atau front-running. Platform seperti sFOX membagi pesanan besar menjadi bagian-bagian kecil yang diarahkan ke berbagai bursa, mengurangi dampak pada pasar sambil memperdalam buku pesanan. Perubahan ini mengurangi keuntungan informasi yang sebelumnya dimiliki pedagang ritel, seperti kemampuan melacak saldo bursa atau transaksi on-chain besar. Arbitrase lintas pasar juga menjadi lebih sulit karena broker utama dengan cepat menutup kesenjangan harga. Prospek pasar bisa optimis atau pesimis. Skenario optimis melihat spread yang lebih sempit dan eksekusi yang lebih baik untuk semua pedagang, dengan peluang bergeser ke DeFi. Skenario pesimis memperingatkan hilangnya transparansi bagi pedagang kecil, di mana layanan terbaik tetap terbatas untuk klien institusional. Intinya, pedagang perlu beradaptasi: jangan bergantung hanya pada volume satu bursa, bandingkan biaya di berbagai saluran, dan gunakan pesanan limit ketika likuiditas rendah. Pasar yang matang menawarkan stabilitas lebih, tetapi membuat aliran dana institusional semakin tersembunyi dari pandangan publik.

marsbit12m yang lalu

Kolam Gelap Mendominasi, Paus Raksasa Menghilang: Sinyal Pasar Publik, Seberapa Dapat Dipercaya?

marsbit12m yang lalu

Berdasarkan data yang ada, Ketua Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh siap mendukung kenaikan suku bunga dalam pertemuan September

Berdasarkan informasi yang ada, Ketua Federal Reserve AS Kevin Warsh siap mendukung kenaikan suku bunga dalam pertemuan September jika data inflasi yang akan dirilis dalam beberapa minggu ke depan tetap tinggi. Menurut laporan Financial Times, Warsh akan memperketat kebijakan moneter jika inflasi melampaui ekspektasi dan ekspektasi pasar atas kenaikan biaya pinjaman meningkat. Pasca pemberitaan tersebut, probabilitas kenaikan suku bunga Fed sebesar 25 basis point pada September meningkat menjadi sekitar 56,7%. Imbal hasil obligasi Treasury AS dua tahun juga naik. Gaya komunikasi Warsh yang sederhana dan singkat dikritik oleh beberapa investor, yang merasa ia tidak memberikan panduan cukup untuk mengendalikan inflasi baru yang dipicu oleh perang dengan Iran dan kenaikan harga energi. Beberapa menyebut komunikasi terbatasnya merusak kepercayaan terhadap kemampuan Fed mengendalikan harga. Harga obligasi Treasury AS sempat turun tajam, dengan imbal hasil obligasi 30 tahun mencapai level tertinggi sejak 2007. Sumber dekat Warsh mengakui ia melakukan sejumlah kesalahan komunikasi dalam 10 minggu pertama menjabat, termasuk kurang menekankan komitmen terhadap stabilitas harga dan menciptakan ketidakpastian soal dampak restrukturisasi bank sentral terhadap keputusan suku bunga jangka pendek. Namun, Warsh tidak berencana menghentikan proses restrukturisasi tersebut. Pendekatannya berbeda dengan ketua Fed sebelumnya yang memberikan panduan komprehensif. Warsh ingin investor fokus pada data ekonomi, bukan pernyataan bank sentral, dan lebih sedikit berbicara tentang jalur suku bunga masa depan. Di sisi lain, Presiden AS Donald Trump dilaporkan sering menelepon Warsh untuk mendorong penurunan, bukan kenaikan, suku bunga.

cryptonews.ru18m yang lalu

Berdasarkan data yang ada, Ketua Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh siap mendukung kenaikan suku bunga dalam pertemuan September

cryptonews.ru18m yang lalu

Saham Penyimpanan AI: Sudah Mencapai Puncak atau Dasar untuk Dibeli?

Sektor chip memori AI saat ini berada di posisi yang tidak menentu, dengan pertanyaan apakah sudah mencapai puncak atau justru berada di dasar dan siap untuk dibeli. Laporan keuangan terbaru dari SanDisk dan Western Digital menunjukkan kinerja yang sangat kuat, namun harga saham justru turun karena panduan (guidance) masa depan tidak memenuhi ekspektasi pasar yang tinggi. Ini menandakan sinyal peringatan pertama: ekspektasi keuntungan mungkin telah mencapai puncaknya, meskipun puncak fundamental (seperti harga, margin laba, pesanan) belum tentu terjadi. Mengacu pada pola Nvidia setelah ledakan AI, saham sektor memori yang telah naik puluhan kali lipat dalam setahun terakhir kemungkinan akan mengalami konsolidasi atau kenaikan yang lebih lambat. Sinyal untuk benar-benar "membeli di titik terendah" kemungkinan akan muncul setelah margin laba kotor turun dan ekspektasi pasar disesuaikan ke tingkat yang lebih realistis. Saat ini, dengan sinyal dasar yang belum jelas dan volatilitas tinggi, investor disarankan untuk berhati-hati. Strategi seperti opsi (untuk berpartisipasi dengan risiko terbatas) atau margin trading (untuk memanfaatkan peluang saat sinyal jelas muncul) dapat dipertimbangkan sesuai dengan profil risiko dan pengalaman masing-masing.

marsbit31m yang lalu

Saham Penyimpanan AI: Sudah Mencapai Puncak atau Dasar untuk Dibeli?

marsbit31m yang lalu

Trading

Spot
活动图片

Kategori Populerright-arrow

Tag Populerright-arrow