# Artikel Terkait Private Market

Pusat Berita HTX menyediakan artikel terbaru dan analisis mendalam mengenai "Private Market", mencakup tren pasar, pembaruan proyek, perkembangan teknologi, dan kebijakan regulasi di industri kripto.

On the Eve of the Tech IPO Boom, Polymarket Joins Forces with NASDAQ to Seize 'Valuation Authority'

At the dawn of a major tech IPO wave, prediction market platform Polymarket is forming an exclusive partnership with Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) to launch contracts predicting the valuations of pre-IPO giants like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX. This move aims to capture the "valuation adjudication right" in the booming but opaque private market, where accurate valuation data is scarce for retail investors. Facing stiff competition from rival Kalshi, which holds an 89% US market share and full regulatory approval, Polymarket's deal with NPM is a strategic counterattack. NPM provides crucial, real-time secondary market transaction data from employee stock sales to settle the new prediction contracts. In return, Polymarket's market-generated probability data becomes a valuable "institutional signal" for NPM's clients. This follows Polymarket's broader strategy of monetizing its prediction data through partnerships with giants like ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) and Dow Jones, integrating its signals into mainstream financial data feeds and media. The Nasdaq deal specifically targets the lucrative and high-profile arena of pre-IPO tech valuations, potentially raising the entry barrier for competitors in this niche.

marsbit05/20 10:35

On the Eve of the Tech IPO Boom, Polymarket Joins Forces with NASDAQ to Seize 'Valuation Authority'

marsbit05/20 10:35

The Real AI Bubble, You Can't Buy It

The article argues that the real "bubble" in the current AI boom is largely invisible and inaccessible to the average investor. Unlike the 2000 dot-com bubble, where overvalued companies were publicly traded, the most significant value surges and financial risks are occurring in private markets. Core AI companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Databricks have seen valuations skyrocket (e.g., OpenAI's from $157B to $852B in 18 months), but these transactions happen through private secondary sales, not public stock exchanges. These opaque markets create an "anxiety exposure," leading public investors to chase indirect proxies like memory chip or utility stocks. The author highlights how AI wealth extraction has been radically front-loaded. Employees and founders can cash out years before a potential IPO through structured secondary sales, "founder-led secondary" deals, and collateralized loans against private equity. Major tech firms also use "acqui-hires" or technology licensing deals (like Google/Character.AI, Microsoft/Inflection AI) to secure talent and tech without full acquisitions, allowing early exits outside of regulatory scrutiny. Furthermore, the AI infrastructure build-out is compared to the 2008 real estate bubble. Massive data center projects are financed through complex, off-balance-sheet structures involving private credit, joint ventures, and asset-backed securities using GPUs as collateral (e.g., CoreWeave's deals). This creates a "shadow borrowing" system where the stability of future AI demand underpins trillions in debt, posing systemic risks if expectations falter. The recent collapse of SaaS company Pluralsight, financed by major private credit firms, is cited as a warning. The conclusion is that the most dangerous part of the AI bubble isn't in plain sight on public markets; by the time the average investor sees it, the critical wealth transfers have already occurred in private, unregulated spaces.

marsbit05/14 07:10

The Real AI Bubble, You Can't Buy It

marsbit05/14 07:10

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