# Artikel Terkait Macro Analysis

Pusat Berita HTX menyediakan artikel terbaru dan analisis mendalam mengenai "Macro Analysis", mencakup tren pasar, pembaruan proyek, perkembangan teknologi, dan kebijakan regulasi di industri kripto.

From Gold to Bitcoin: Fixed Supply + Institutional Frenzy, Could It Replay an 'Explosive' Price Surge?

"From Gold to Bitcoin: Analysts Draw Parallels Between ETF Histories and Potential for ‘Explosive’ Price Action. Analysts compare Bitcoin's recent ETF-driven trajectory to gold's two-decade journey following its ETF launch in 2004. Both assets, seen as non-yielding stores of value, rely on investor sentiment. Gold ETFs saw dramatic price surges, painful drawdowns, and recovery cycles that established higher highs. Similarly, after the 2024 US spot Bitcoin ETF approval, rapid institutional inflows were followed by significant volatility and price retracements in 2025-2026. Observers note that near-fixed supply combined with concentrated demand can trigger explosive price moves, though demand can be fickle. Despite Bitcoin's >50% pullback from its 2025 highs, many remain bullish long-term, citing sustained institutional interest via ETFs and the asset’s ‘digital gold’ potential. Achieving even a fraction of gold's $28 trillion market cap implies significant upside, though the path will likely remain volatile. Key for investors is focusing on long-term trends over short-term noise as institutional adoption continues."

marsbit07/20 07:53

From Gold to Bitcoin: Fixed Supply + Institutional Frenzy, Could It Replay an 'Explosive' Price Surge?

marsbit07/20 07:53

Dialogue with Macro Analyst: AI Dries Up All Liquidity in US Stocks, $40K Bitcoin is the Bottom

**Summary of Interview with Macro Strategist Luke Groman** Macro strategist Luke Groman, founder of FFT LC, analyzes market liquidity, AI dominance, and geopolitical tensions to present a bearish view for Bitcoin. * **Key Theses:** * The stock market rally is narrow, driven primarily by a handful of AI stocks, which are sucking liquidity from other assets, including Bitcoin, which he sees as a liquidity "smoke alarm" now signaling trouble. * Despite strong stock performance in dollar terms, he expects stocks to decline significantly when measured in gold or Bitcoin. The US economy faces structural challenges, with sovereign debt having a 100% historical failure rate at current levels. * Geopolitics are key: the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a major US strategic failure, creating stagflationary pressures. China's control of rare earths processing and a move towards a "no ticky, no washy" proof-of-work settlement system (involving physical gold and possibly Bitcoin) are reshaping global trade. * AI's growth is fueled by aggressive accounting that front-loads revenue, masking cash burn. The paradox is that if AI is as transformative as valuations suggest, it will destroy jobs, but admitting this is politically untenable. * **Outlook for Bitcoin:** * Groman sold most of his Bitcoin holdings near the top and has not re-entered the market in size. * He believes technical analysis points to a potential bottom for Bitcoin in the $40,000 - $50,000 range in Q3/Q4.

marsbit06/10 04:11

Dialogue with Macro Analyst: AI Dries Up All Liquidity in US Stocks, $40K Bitcoin is the Bottom

marsbit06/10 04:11

Arthur Hayes' Latest Podcast: Got the Script for Next Year, Already Fired 90% of the Bullets

In his latest podcast, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, shares his macro outlook and investment strategy for the coming year. He argues that the market is waiting for a form of quantitative easing (QE) that will never be explicitly announced. Instead, the Federal Reserve will use new tools like "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP) to inject liquidity by buying short-term Treasury bills, effectively achieving the same stimulative effect as QE without using the politically toxic term. Hayes believes the market will initially misunderstand RMP but will eventually recognize it as money printing, leading to a significant asset price rebound starting in early 2025, with potential volatility around March before a sustained uptrend. Hayes reveals his fund, Maelstrom, is nearly fully invested, with 90% of capital deployed, and remains confident even if Bitcoin drops below $80,000. He highlights Ethena (ENA) as one of his most successful altcoin bets due to its capture of interest rate dynamics, and is bullish on privacy and zero-knowledge (ZK) projects like Zcash for the next cycle, despite regulatory hurdles that limit exchange listings. He cautions against shorting AI-related stocks like NVIDIA and emphasizes that the U.S. administration will prioritize low rates and financial market growth to sustain the AI-driven economy, regardless of who leads the Fed. Hayes maintains his long-term Bitcoin target of $250,000 by 2026, warns against the overuse of leverage, and dismisses the notion that market makers are manipulating prices. He concludes that "altcoin seasons" are constant but require adapting to new narratives rather than clinging to past cycles.

marsbit12/20 02:21

Arthur Hayes' Latest Podcast: Got the Script for Next Year, Already Fired 90% of the Bullets

marsbit12/20 02:21

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