Bitcoin’s ETF inflows surge 4x – So why does BTC still feel heavy?

Key Takeaways 

What’s next for Bitcoin post-Fed rate decision? 

Analysts were split; some projected a rally toward $160K, while others warned of limited impact due to weak macro data.

Can BTC ETF inflows drive the recovery? 

This could be likely, especially if the pace of demand improves, according to Glassnode. 

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Bitcoin [BTC] has recovered but sluggishly since the 10th of October flash crash. Part of the latest rebound was fueled by improving macro front and renewed demand from institutions. 

In the past four consecutive trading days, for example, the Spot BTC ETFs posted an inflow streak.

And the demand has climbed steadily from $20 million in Daily Net Inflows to $202 million on the 29th of October. Overall, the products have attracted over $460 million in the past few days. 

Unfortunately, BTC price failed to surge above $117K despite the renewed demand from ETFs. According to Glassnode, the sluggish recovery could be due to the pace of ETF inflows.

The on-chain analytics added, 

“Inflows remain <1k BTC/day, significantly lower than >2.5k BTC/day seen at the start of major rallies this cycle. Demand is recovering, but not at the intensity of recent rallies.”

But the slow demand wasn’t the only thing capping BTC’s strong recovery. Big players continue to dump their BTC holdings. 

Long-term holders sell-off continues

CryptoQuant data showed that Long-Term Holders (LTH), or those who have held BTC for over 6 months, dumped over 325K BTC in October alone. That would translate to over $35 billion in sell-off, assuming the average price of $110K per BTC. 

According to CryptoQuant analyst JA Marrtunn, this was the sharpest “monthly drawdown since July 2025.” 

Still, the positive macro outlook and the expected Fed easing cycle and end of quantitative tightening (QT) could juice liquidity and rally risk assets. 

Diverging opinions on Fed impact

In fact, even Fundstrat CIO, Tom Lee, projected that markets could rally after the Fed rate decision. The macro catalyst could lift BTC as high as $160K, according to some analysts. 

But not all market watchers were bullish. Singapore-based crypto trading desk, QCP Capital, cautioned that the Fed rate decision could be a “non-event” because lack of key data to gauge inflation and labor markets. 

QCP Capital analysts added that digital asset treasuries (DATs) distress could accelerate the sell-off risk. 

“If discounts persist, DATs may be forced into buybacks funded by asset sales, potentially adding another wave of supply to already thin markets.”

For his part, renowned trader, Cryp Nuevo, projected that BTC could ease around $112K-$111K, before extending its recovery.