Bitcoin’s price eyes new ATH – But THIS gap could slow BTC’s rally

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin prices were near its ATH with Z-Score at +1.5σ, miners limiting supply, S2F up 75%, and address growth climbing. Yet, BTC network activity still trails price, leaving the rally’s durability in question.

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Bitcoin [BTC] hovered near its all-time high, with the BTC Z-Score at +1.5σ – strong, but below the +2.5σ “overheating” mark.

Naturally, this leaves room for further upside before momentum risks becoming stretched.

However, the Activity–Price Divergence (APD) remained at -1.5 after rebounding from -2, highlighting that price growth is still outpacing on-chain activity.

The gap between price and network fundamentals has narrowed but not closed. 

Are miners quietly supporting the market by reducing selling pressure?

Miners appear to be playing a supportive role in Bitcoin’s price stability. The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) sat at -0.46 at press time.

It indicates that miner outflows remain below their yearly average. Although the MPI rose by 25.8% in the past 24 hours, it still reflects restrained selling behavior.

This reduction in miner-led supply pressure can help maintain market stability, especially during periods of heightened volatility. 

Can Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative fuel further upside momentum?

At the time of writing, the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio surged to 1.5923 million, marking a 75% increase and reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarcity appeal. 

Historically, high S2F readings accompanied bullish phases as tighter supply boosted investor conviction.

Of course, this follows the post-halving drop in issuance, which may amplify scarcity-driven demand from retail and institutions alike.

Source: CryptoQuant

Will rising on-chain participation close the gap with price?

On-chain activity improved, with new addresses up 25.47% and active addresses up 11.11% in a week. Zero-balance addresses fell 2.69%, at press time, meaning more wallets held BTC.

Such growth expands the user base, deepens liquidity, and strengthens market resilience. If sustained, it could narrow the price-activity gap and fortify long-term price support.

To sum up, Bitcoin’s price momentum remains strong, supported by reduced miner selling, a higher Stock-to-Flow ratio, and growing on-chain participation.

However, network activity still lags behind price, leaving a gap that must close for sustained upside.

 If fundamentals continue strengthening through increased address activity and stable supply dynamics, the rally could maintain its momentum.

Otherwise, the price may need to cool to realign with on-chain performance.