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Glassnode: Crypto Market in 'Late Bear Market Bottoming Phase', Three Core Signals Absent, Bitcoin Reversal Still Requires Time

According to a Glassnode analysis, the cryptocurrency market is currently in the late stages of a bear market bottom formation. Bitcoin's price has remained below key realized price and short-term holder cost benchmarks for five months, indicating deep undervaluation. A major source of sell-side pressure is from long-term holders realizing losses, with their daily loss-taking recently peaking at $280 million, the highest level since December 2022. While spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have moderated, they remain in a state of monthly net negative flows, and trading volumes are approximately 80% below their 2025 peak, signaling a lack of robust institutional demand. In derivatives markets, positioning has shifted to a cautiously bullish stance. However, options volatility surfaces still price in downside risk, and the spot price sits below the "Max Pain" strike level. The report concludes that the necessary conditions for a market bottom are in place, but a confirmed reversal requires three core signals: a sustained decline in long-term holder loss realization, a stabilization in ETF fund flows, and a sustained price recovery above the Realized Price. Until these signals emerge, a full transition to a bull market is unlikely to occur imminently.

marsbit07/10 00:05

Glassnode: Crypto Market in 'Late Bear Market Bottoming Phase', Three Core Signals Absent, Bitcoin Reversal Still Requires Time

marsbit07/10 00:05

Glassnode: Crypto Market Enters Later Stages of Bottoming Phase

Glassnode: Crypto Market Enters Later Stages of Bottom Formation Bitcoin has traded below the true market average and the short-term holder cost basis for five consecutive months, indicating a deep undervaluation. On-chain data reveals a significant shift in selling pressure, with long-term holders now accounting for 43% of all realized losses. Daily realized losses for this group recently peaked at $280 million, the highest level since December 2022. While this large-scale capitulation is a hallmark of bear market bottoms, a sustained decline in this metric is a prerequisite for a sustained recovery. Institutional demand remains weak. US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see monthly net outflows, although the pace has moderated from June's peak. Furthermore, average daily ETF trading volumes have contracted by approximately 80% from their October 2025 peak, reflecting subdued institutional participation. Derivatives markets present a mixed picture. Overall positioning has shifted to cautiously bullish, with the put/call ratio dropping to a yearly low. However, the options volatility skew remains elevated, signaling that traders are still paying a premium for downside protection. The spot price also trades below the gamma "max pain" level. In summary, multiple indicators suggest the market is in the later phases of a bottoming process, characterized by long-term holder capitulation and weak institutional inflows. However, key confirmation signals for a durable trend reversal—a sustained drop in long-term holder selling pressure, stabilization of ETF flows, and a price recovery above key cost bases—are still pending.

Foresight News07/09 02:41

Glassnode: Crypto Market Enters Later Stages of Bottoming Phase

Foresight News07/09 02:41

Bitcoin at $62K: Why CoinShares warns ‘this still looks like early stage of bottoming’

Bitcoin has stabilized near $62,000 after a decline, but CoinShares warns this appears to be the early stage of a bottoming process rather than a clear start of a new upward trend. The recent rebound was triggered by a weaker-than-expected U.S. June jobs report, which lowered expectations for imminent Fed rate hikes and made riskier assets like crypto more attractive. However, the report cautions this is a transient market response, noting the Fed's recent stance remains hawkish with higher long-term rate projections. Major challenges persist, including past large-scale sell-offs by whale wallets, geopolitical uncertainty, and capital shifting from Bitcoin ETPs into AI-focused ETFs. While trading interest is rising, the current combination of low price and high market leverage increases the risk of a sharp, liquidation-driven price move in either direction.

ambcrypto07/04 17:02

Bitcoin at $62K: Why CoinShares warns ‘this still looks like early stage of bottoming’

ambcrypto07/04 17:02

Bitcoin Closer to Bottoming Phase Than Early Bear Stage, Report Says

A new Glassnode report suggests Bitcoin may be closer to a bottoming phase than the early stage of a bear market. The analysis focuses on the "Total Supply in Loss" metric, which measures the amount of Bitcoin held at an unrealized loss. This indicator has surged to 9.2 million BTC, its highest level since the last bear market, meaning nearly half of all circulating supply is in loss. This pattern aligns with historical bear markets where such high loss concentrations often signaled exhaustion of selling pressure and preceded market bottoms. While the current level hasn't surpassed previous cyclical bottoms, the market structure resembles the latter stages of past bear markets rather than their beginning. Despite ongoing volatility, this indicates a potential bottoming range. Bitcoin's price recently touched $69,000 but has since back to around $67,300.

bitcoinist02/27 14:31

Bitcoin Closer to Bottoming Phase Than Early Bear Stage, Report Says

bitcoinist02/27 14:31

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